The Pacific Northwest is the most highly glacierized region in the conterminous United States (858 glaciers; 466 km2). These glaciers have displayed ubiquitous patterns of retreat since the 1980s mostly in response to warming air temperatures. Glacier melt provides water for downstream uses including agricultural water supply, hydroelectric power generation, and for ecological systems adapted to cold reliable streamflow. While changes in glacier area have been studied within the region over an extended period of time, the hydrologic consequences of these changes are not well defined. We applied a high‐resolution glacio‐hydrological model to predict glacier mass balance, glacier area, and river discharge for the period 1960–2099. Six river basins across the region were modeled to characterize the regional hydrological response to glacier change. Using these results, we generalized past and future glacier area change and discharge across the entire Pacific Northwest using a k‐means cluster analysis. Results show that the rate of regional glacier recession will increase, but the runoff from glacier melt and its relative contribution to streamflow display both positive and negative trends. In high‐elevation river basins enhanced glacier melt will buffer strong declines in seasonal snowpack and decreased late summer streamflow, before the glaciers become too small to support streamflow at historic levels later in the 21st century. Conversely, in lower‐elevation basins, smaller snowpack and the shrinkage of small glaciers result in continued reductions in summer streamflow.

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Twenty-two new radiocarbon ages from Skagit valley provide a detailed chronology of alpine glaciation during the Evans Creek stade of the Fraser Glaciation (early marine oxygen isotope stage (MIS) 2) in the Cascade Range, Washington State. Sediments at sites near Concrete, Washington, record two advances of the Baker valley glacier between ca. 30.3 and 19.5 cal ka BP, with an intervening period of glacier recession about 24.9 cal ka BP. The Baker valley glacier dammed lower Skagit valley, creating glacial Lake Concrete, which discharged around the ice dam along Finney Creek, or south into the Sauk valley. Sediments along the shores of Ross Lake in upper Skagit valley accumulated in glacial Lake Skymo after ca. 28.7 cal ka BP behind a glacier flowing out of Big Beaver valley. Horizontally laminated silt and bedded sand and gravel up to 20 m thick record as much as 8000 yr of deposition in these glacially dammed lakes. The data indicate that alpine glaciers in Skagit valley were far less extensive than previously thought. Alpine glaciers remained in advanced positions for much of the Evans Creek stade, which may have ended as early as 20.8 cal ka BP.

We present a 6,000-yr record of changing water balance in the Pacific Northwest inferred from measurements of carbonate δ 18 O and grayscale on a sediment core collected from Castor Lake, Washington. This subdecadally resolved drought record tracks the 1,500-yr tree-ring-based Palmer Drought Severity Index reconstructions of Cook et al. [Cook ER, Woodhouse CA, Eakin CM, Meko DM, Stahle DW (2004) Science 306:1015–1018] in the Pacific Northwest and extends our knowledge back to 6,000 yr B.P. The results demonstrate that low-frequency drought/pluvial cycles, with occasional long-duration, multidecadal events, are a persistent feature of regional climate. Furthermore, the average duration of multidecadal wet/dry cycles has increased since the middle Holocene, which has acted to increase the amplitude and impact of these events. This is especially apparent during the last 1,000 yr. We suggest these transitions were driven by changes in the tropical and extratropical Pacific and are related to apparent intensification of the El Niño Southern Oscillation over this interval and its related effects on the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The Castor Lake record also corroborates the notion that the 20th century, prior to recent aridity, was a relatively wet period compared to the last 6,000 yr. Our findings suggest that the hydroclimate response in the Pacific Northwest to future warming will be intimately tied to the impact of warming on the El Niño Southern Oscillation.

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