The ability of individual organisms to alter morphological and life‐history traits in response to the conditions they experience is an example of phenotypic plasticity which is fundamental to any population's ability to deal with short‐term environmental change. We currently know little about the prevalence, and evolutionary and ecological causes and consequences of variation in life history plasticity in the wild. Here we outline an analytical framework, utilizing the reaction norm concept and random regression statistical models, to assess the between‐individual variation in life history plasticity that may underlie population level responses to the environment at both phenotypic and genetic levels. We discuss applications of this framework to date in wild vertebrate populations, and illustrate how natural selection and ecological constraint may alter a population's response to the environment through their effects at the individual level. Finally, we present future directions and challenges for research into individual plasticity.

Comparative analyses of survival senescence by using life tables have identified generalizations including the observation that mammals senesce faster than similar-sized birds. These generalizations have been challenged because of limitations of life-table approaches and the growing appreciation that senescence is more than an increasing probability of death. Without using life tables, we examine senescence rates in annual individual fitness using 20 individual-based data sets of terrestrial vertebrates with contrasting life histories and body size. We find that senescence is widespread in the wild and equally likely to occur in survival and reproduction. Additionally, mammals senesce faster than birds because they have a faster life history for a given body size. By allowing us to disentangle the effects of two major fitness components our methods allow an assessment of the robustness of the prevalent life-table approach. Focusing on one aspect of life history - survival or recruitment - can provide reliable information on overall senescence.

Local adaptation through natural selection can be inferred in case the additive genetic divergence in a quantitative trait across populations (Qst) exceeds the neutral expectation based on differentiation of neutral alleles across these populations (e.g. Fst). As such, measuring Qst in relation to neutral differentiation presents a first‐line investigation applicable in evolutionary biology (selection on functional genes) and conservation biology (identification of locally adapted coding genes). However, many species, especially those in need of conservation actions, are not amenable for the kind of breeding design required to estimate either narrow‐ or broad‐sense Qst. In such cases, Qst has been approximated by the phenotypic divergence in a trait across populations (Pst). I here argue that the critical aspect for how well Pst approximates Qst depends on the extent that additive genetic effects determine variation between populations relative to within populations. I review how the sensitivity of conclusions regarding local adaptation based on Pst have been evaluated in the literature and find that many studies make a anticonservative null assumption in estimating Pst and/or use a nonconservative approach to explore sensitivity of their conclusions. Data from two studies that have provided a second, independent assessment of selection in their system suggest that Pst–Fst comparisons should be interpreted very conservatively. I conclude with recommendations for improving the robustness of the inferences drawn from comparing Pst with neutral differentiation.

To ensure long-term persistence, organisms must adapt to climate change, but an evolutionary response to a quantified selection pressure driven by climate change has not been empirically demonstrated in a wild population. Here, we show that pheomelanin-based plumage colouration in tawny owls is a highly heritable trait, consistent with a simple Mendelian pattern of brown (dark) dominance over grey (pale). We show that strong viability selection against the brown morph occurs, but only under snow-rich winters. As winter conditions became milder in the last decades, selection against the brown morph diminished. Concurrent with this reduced selection, the frequency of brown morphs increased rapidly in our study population during the last 28 years and nationwide during the last 48 years. Hence, we show the first evidence that recent climate change alters natural selection in a wild population leading to a microevolutionary response, which demonstrates the ability of wild populations to evolve in response to climate change.

Suggestions of collapse in small herbivore cycles since the 1980s have raised concerns about the loss of essential ecosystem functions. Whether such phenomena are general and result from extrinsic environmental changes or from intrinsic process stochasticity is currently unknown. Using a large compilation of time series of vole abundances, we demonstrate consistent cycle amplitude dampening associated with a reduction in winter population growth, although regulatory processes responsible for cyclicity have not been lost. The underlying syndrome of change throughout Europe and grass-eating vole species suggests a common climatic driver. Increasing intervals of low-amplitude small herbivore population fluctuations are expected in the future, and these may have cascading impacts on trophic webs across ecosystems.