A shrubland fire behaviour dataset was assembled using data from experimental studies in Australia, New Zealand, Europe and South Africa. The dataset covers a wide range of heathlands and shrubland species associations and vegetation structures. Three models for rate of spread are developed using 2-m wind speed, a wind reduction factor, elevated dead fuel moisture content and either vegetation height (with or without live fuel moisture content) or bulk density. The models are tested against independent data from prescribed fires and wildfires and found to predict fire spread rate within acceptable limits (mean absolute errors varying between 3.5 and 9.1 m min À1 ). A simple model to predict dead fuel moisture content is evaluated, and an ignition line length correction is proposed. Although the model can be expected to provide robust predictions of rate of spread in a broad range of shrublands, the effects of slope steepness and variation in fuel quantity and composition are yet to be quantified. The model does not predict threshold conditions for continuous fire spread, and future work should focus on identifying fuel and weather factors that control transitions in fire behaviour.

In many landscapes, an important fire management objective is to reduce the negative impacts from unplanned fires on people, property and ecological values. In Australia, there exists an inherent assumption that high spatial variability in fire ages and hence fuel loads will have negative effects on both the incidence and spread of subsequent fires, and will enhance ecological values. A recent study using the process-based computer simulation model FIRESCAPE-SWTAS predicted several relationships between prescribed burn treatment levels and spatial patterning and management objectives in south-west Tasmania, Australia. The present study extended this investigation to additionally explore the effects of prescribed burning treatment unit size on unplanned fire incidence and area burned both in the general landscape and specifically in fire-intolerant vegetation. Simulation results suggest that treatment level had the greatest influence on modifying fire effects, whereas treatment unit size had the least effect. The model predicted that all three parameters interacted to determine the mean annual area burnt by unplanned fires. In fire-intolerant vegetation, treatment unit size did not influence the incidence of unplanned fires and the area burnt by unplanned fires in these communities. Where significant differences were evident, fire risk was reduced by higher treatment levels, deterministic spatial patterns of burning units, and smaller burning unit sizes.

We develop a method for estimating equilibrium moisture content (EMC) and fuel moisture response time, using data collected for Eucalyptus twig litter. The method is based on the governing differential equation for the diffusion of water vapour from the fuel, and on a semi-physical formulation for EMC (Nelson 1984), based on the change in Gibbs free energy, which estimates the EMC as a function of fuel temperature and humidity. We then test the model on data collected in Western Australian mallee shrubland and in Tasmanian buttongrass moorland. This method is more generally applicable than those described by Viney and Catchpole (1991) and Viney (1992). The estimates of EMC and response time are in broad agreement with laboratory-based estimates for similar fuels (Anderson 1990a ; Nelson 1984). The model can be used to predict fuel moisture content by a book-keeping method. The predictions agree wellwith the observations for all three of our data sets.

Summary1. Natural area managers use fire and grazing to achieve nature conservation ⁄ production goals and to prevent the loss of life and property. Yet, little is known of the effects of post-fire grazing on fuel load and the proportion of days on which fire can be sustained (fire potential). This knowledge could help managers in planning interventions to achieve their goals. 2. At seven sites in Tasmania, Australia, including sedgeland, heathy forest and grassland, fire potential and fuel load were measured before, and for 2 years after fire. Measurements were made in burning, fencing and burning plus fencing treatments, and in control quadrats. 3. Burning followed by grazing, largely by native vertebrates, resulted in lower fuel loads than either grazing by itself or burning by itself. A new steady state was established in two grasslands. Fire potential at the oligotrophic sites was largely a function of time elapsed since the last fire, while at grassy sites was increased by grazing without fire, but depressed or slightly increased by grazing after burning. 4. Synthesis and applications. Effects of grazing after burning on flammability are not predictable from the single or additive effects of grazing and burning, varying between vegetation type and environment. In highland grassy ecosystems fire potential can be reduced by excluding grazing animals after fire, while in scleromorphic ecosystems grazing after fire does not affect fuel or fire potential. Intense grazing after fire can cause an, often desirable, shift from tussock to lawn grassland. Burning and subsequent grazing of tussock grassland vegetation in the lowlands may reduce the chance of wildfire damaging property and conservation ⁄ production values, while in highland tussock grassland burning followed by grazing will be largely ineffective in reducing the already low chance of such damaging fire.

Buttongrass moorlands are widespread in western Tasmania. In these moorlands, the ability to conduct burning without having to rely on hard fuel boundaries (e.g. vegetation which is too wet to burn, water courses, mineral earth breaks and/or roads) would be a major advantage to land managers. Such burning relies on fires self-extinguishing and is normally referred to as unbounded burning. The aim of this project was to model the probability of fires extinguishing using the data from 156 buttongrass moorland fires. The variables used were wind speed, dead fuel moisture and site productivity. The model, derived from a combination of logistic regression and classification tree modelling, predicts that fires will self-extinguish over a wide range of conditions in low productivity moorlands but, in medium productivity moorlands, the conditions within which fires will self-extinguish will be much more restrictive. As a result, the technique of unbounded burning should be widely applicable in low productivity moorlands, but will be of marginal utility in medium productivity moorlands.

The Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area (TWWHA) has globally significant natural and cultural values, some of which are dependent on the absence of fire or the presence of particular fire regimes. Planned burning is currently used to reduce the risk of loss of world heritage values from unplanned fires, but large and damaging fires still occur, with lightning as the primary ignition source. Lightning-caused fire was rare in the TWWHA before 2000. There has since been an increase in both the number of fires following lightning storms and the area burnt by these fires. In the absence of a direct measurement of lightning strike incidence, we tested whether changes in rainfall, soil dryness and fuel load were responsible for these changes in fire incidence and extent. There were no relationships between these variables and the incidence of fires associated with lightning, but the variability in the Soil Dryness Index and the mean of 25% of driest values did predict both the number and area of fires. Thus, it appears that an increase in the proportion of lightning strikes that occur in dry conditions has increased ignition efficiency. These changes have important implications for the management of the TWWHA’s values, as higher projected fuel loads and drier climates could result in a further increase in the number of fires associated with lightning.

Summary In many natural areas, changes in fire regimes since European settlement have resulted in adverse impacts on elements of biological diversity that survived millennia of land management by Indigenous people. Some of the rainforest and alpine elements that depend on south‐west Tasmania’s World Heritage Area have been in decline since European settlement of Tasmania due to an increase in the incidence of landscape‐scale fires in the period 1850–1940. Some of the buttongrass moorland elements that also depend on the region are in decline or impending decline because of a decreased incidence and/or size of burns since 1940. Will an Indigenous‐style fire regime serve the interests of biological diversity? We examine this question in the context of the fire ecology and fire history of south‐west Tasmania. From this assessment we argue that a return to Indigenous‐ style burning, modified to address contemporary issues such as the prevention of unplanned ignition, suppression of wildfires and burning to favour rare and threatened species may help to reverse trends towards ecosystem degradation in this region.

On Wednesday, November 16, had the camp moved to the foot of Barn Bluff and on Sunday, the 2(J h , taking three of the party with me, 1 went to the summit of that mountain, hoping to obtain a good view of the country to the westward. By aneroid I made the summit of Barn Bluf f 5045 feet above sea, but failed to get a good view of the country I wanted to see, owing to the dense volume of smoke arisingftom numerous bush fires enveloping the country in almost every direction.