Summary 1. Successful environmental flow prescriptions require an accurate understanding of the linkages among flow events, geomorphic processes and biotic responses. We describe models and results from experimental flow releases associated with an environmental flow program on the Bill Williams River (BWR), Arizona, in arid to semiarid western U.S.A. 2. Two general approaches for improving knowledge and predictions of ecological responses to environmental flows are: (1) coupling physical system models to ecological responses and (2) clarifying empirical relationships between flow and ecological responses through implementation and monitoring of experimental flow releases. 3. We modelled the BWR physical system using: (1) a reservoir operations model to simulate reservoir releases and reservoir water levels and estimate flow through the river system under a range of scenarios, (2) one‐ and two‐dimensional river hydraulics models to estimate stage–discharge relationships at the whole‐river and local scales, respectively, and (3) a groundwater model to estimate surface‐ and groundwater interactions in a large, alluvial valley on the BWR where surface flow is frequently absent. 4. An example of a coupled, hydrology‐ecology model is the Ecosystems Function Model, which we used to link a one‐dimensional hydraulic model with riparian tree seedling establishment requirements to produce spatially explicit predictions of seedling recruitment locations in a Geographic Information System. We also quantified the effects of small experimental floods on the differential mortality of native and exotic riparian trees, on beaver dam integrity and distribution, and on the dynamics of differentially flow‐adapted benthic macroinvertebrate groups. 5. Results of model applications and experimental flow releases are contributing to adaptive flow management on the BWR and to the development of regional environmental flow standards. General themes that emerged from our work include the importance of response thresholds, which are commonly driven by geomorphic thresholds or mediated by geomorphic processes, and the importance of spatial and temporal variation in the effects of flows on ecosystems, which can result from factors such as longitudinal complexity and ecohydrological feedbacks.

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This paper details a case study of economic and natural system responses to alternative water management policies in the Cache La Poudre River basin, Colorado, 1980–1994. The case study is presented to highlight the value and application of a conceptual integration of economic, salmonid population, physical habitat, and water allocation models. Five alternative regimes, all intended to increase low winter flows, were investigated. Habitat enhancements created by alternative regimes were translated to population responses and economic benefits. Analysis concluded that instream flows cannot compete on the northern Colorado water rental market; cooperative agreements offer an economically feasible way to enhance instream flows; and establishing an instream flow program on the Cache La Poudre River mainstem is a potentially profitable opportunity. The alliance of models is a dynamic multidisciplinary tool for use in professional settings and offers valuable insight for decision‐making processes involved in water management.

Linked hydrologic, hydraulic, and ecological models can facilitate planning and implementing water releases from reservoirs to achieve ecological objectives along rivers. We applied a flow‐ecology model, the Ecosystem Functions Model (HEC‐EFM), to the Bill Williams River in southwestern USA to estimate areas suitable for recruitment of riparian tree seedlings in the context of managing flow releases from a large dam for riparian restoration. Ecological variables in the model included timing of seed dispersal, tolerable rates of flow recession, and tolerable duration of inundation following germination and early seedling establishment for native Fremont cottonwood and Goodding's willow, and non‐native tamarisk. Hydrological variables included peak flow timing, rate of flow recession following the peak, and duration of inundation. A one‐dimensional hydraulic model was applied to estimate stage‐discharge relationships along ~58 river kilometres. We then used HEC‐EFM to apply relationships between seedling ecology and streamflow to link hydrological dynamics with ecological response. We developed and validated HEC‐EFM based on an examination of seedling recruitment following an experimental flow release from Alamo Dam in spring 2006. The model predicted the largest area of potential recruitment for cottonwood (280–481 ha), with smaller areas predicted for willow (174–188 ha) and tamarisk (59–60 ha). Correlations between observed and predicted patches with successful seedling recruitment for areas within 40 m of the main channel ranged from 0.66 to 0.94. Finally, we examined arrays of hydrographs to identify which are most conducive to seedling recruitment along the river, given different combinations of peak flow, recession rate, and water volume released. Similar application of this model could be useful for informing reservoir management in the context of riparian restoration along other rivers facing similar challenges.

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