The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.

This paper estimates the relationship between trade facilitation and trade flows using a panel of disaggregated manufactured goods for the 2000–2001 period for 75 countries. Four categories of trade facilitation are defined, measured and assessed for their impact on bilateral trade flows using a gravity model. The four measures of trade facilitation are: port infrastructure (air and maritime), customs environment, regulatory environments and e‐business infrastructure. The results suggest that raising global capacity halfway to the world average in the four areas would increase trade by $377 billion. Most regions of the world increase exports more than imports. In large part, this result stems from increased exports to OECD markets that is obtained through a country's own effort to improve ports, customs, regulations and services infrastructures. In addition, the results suggest that reform and capacity building in trade facilitation in areas related to GATT Articles V, VIII and X that are under discussion at the World Trade Organisation could expand trade and exports significantly. Many of the reform measures necessary to achieve this goal need not necessarily require large‐scale investment projects, but rather action in legal and administrative reform to facilitate trade.

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Long-term event-free and actuarial survival after balloon aortic valvuloplasty is dismal and resembles the natural history of untreated aortic stenosis. Aortic valve replacement may be performed in selected subjects with good results. However, the prognosis for the remainder of patients who are not candidates for aortic valve replacement is particularly poor.

Complementary advances in medical imaging, vascular biology and biomechanics promise to enable computational modelling of abdominal aortic aneurysms to play increasingly important roles in clinical decision processes. Using a finite-element-based growth and remodelling model of evolving aneurysm geometry and material properties, we show that regional variations in material anisotropy, stiffness and wall thickness should be expected to arise naturally and thus should be included in analyses of aneurysmal enlargement or wall stress. In addition, by initiating the model from best-fit material parameters estimated for non-aneurysmal aortas from different subjects, we show that the initial state of the aorta may influence strongly the subsequent rate of enlargement, wall thickness, mechanical behaviour and thus stress in the lesion. We submit, therefore, that clinically reliable modelling of the enlargement and overall rupture-potential of aneurysms may require both a better understanding of the mechanobiological processes that govern the evolution of these lesions and new methods of determining the patient-specific state of the pre-aneurysmal aorta (or correlation to currently unaffected portions thereof ) through knowledge of demographics, comorbidities, lifestyle, genetics and future non-invasive or minimally invasive tests.

Most computational models of abdominal aortic aneurysms address either the hemodynamics within the lesion or the mechanics of the wall. More recently, however, some models have appropriately begun to account for the evolving mechanics of the wall in response to the changing hemodynamic loads. Collectively, this large body of work has provided tremendous insight into this life-threatening condition and has provided important guidance for current research. Nevertheless, there has yet to be a comprehensive model that addresses the mechanobiology, biochemistry, and biomechanics of thrombus-laden abdominal aortic aneurysms. That is, there is a pressing need to include effects of the hemodynamics on both the development of the nearly ubiquitous intraluminal thrombus and the evolving mechanics of the wall, which depends in part on biochemical effects of the adjacent thrombus. Indeed, there is increasing evidence that intraluminal thrombus in abdominal aortic aneurysms is biologically active and should not be treated as homogeneous inert material. In this review paper, we bring together diverse findings from the literature to encourage next generation models that account for the biochemomechanics of growth and remodeling in patient-specific, thrombus-laden abdominal aortic aneurysms.

The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors.

Abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) are characterized by significant changes in the architecture of the aortic wall, notably, loss of functional elastin and smooth muscle. Because collagen is the principal remaining load-bearing constituent of the aneurysmal wall, its turnover must play a fundamental role in the natural history of the lesion. Nevertheless, detailed investigations of the effects of different aspects of collagen turnover on AAA development are lacking. A finite-element membrane model of the growth and remodelling of idealized AAAs was thus used to investigate parametrically four of the primary aspects of collagen turnover: rates of production, half-life, deposition stretch (prestretch) and material stiffness. The predicted rates of aneurysmal expansion and spatio-temporal changes in wall thickness, biaxial stresses and maximum collagen fibre stretch at the apex of the lesion depended strongly on all four factors, as did the predicted clinical endpoints (i.e. arrest, progressive expansion or rupture). Collagen turnover also affected the axial expansion, largely due to mechanical changes within the shoulder region of the lesion. We submit, therefore, that assessment of rupture risk could be improved by future experiments that delineate and quantify different aspects of patient-specific collagen turnover and that such understanding could lead to new targeted therapeutics.