[1] Salt marshes are delicate landforms at the boundary between the sea and land. These ecosystems support a diverse biota that modifies the erosive characteristics of the substrate and mediates sediment transport processes. Here we present a broad overview of recent numerical models that quantify the formation and evolution of salt marshes under different physical and ecological drivers. In particular, we focus on the coupling between geomorphological and ecological processes and on how these feedbacks are included in predictive models of landform evolution. We describe in detail models that simulate fluxes of water, organic matter, and sediments in salt marshes. The interplay between biological and morphological processes often produces a distinct scarp between salt marshes and tidal flats. Numerical models can capture the dynamics of this boundary and the progradation or regression of the marsh in time. Tidal channels are also key features of the marsh landscape, flooding and draining the marsh platform and providing a source of sediments and nutrients to the marsh ecosystem. In recent years, several numerical models have been developed to describe the morphogenesis and long-term dynamics of salt marsh channels. Finally, salt marshes are highly sensitive to the effects of long-term climatic change. We therefore discuss in detail how numerical models have been used to determine salt marsh survival under different scenarios of sea level rise.

Summary 1We measured sediment elevation and accretion dynamics in mangrove forests on the islands of Guanaja and Roatan, Honduras, impacted by Hurricane Mitch in 1998 to determine if collapse of underlying peat was occurring as a result of mass tree mortality. Little is known about the balance between production and decomposition of soil organic matter in the maintenance of sediment elevation of mangrove forests with biogenic soils. 2 Sediment elevation change measured with the rod surface elevation table from 18 months to 33 months after the storm differed significantly among low, medium and high wind impact sites. Mangrove forests suffering minimal to partial mortality gained elevation at a rate (5 mm year − 1 ) greater than vertical accretion (2 mm year − 1 ) measured from artificial soil marker horizons, suggesting that root production contributed to sediment elevation. Basin forests that suffered mass tree mortality experienced peat collapse of about 11 mm year − 1 as a result of decomposition of dead root material and sediment compaction. Low soil shear strength and lack of root growth accompanied elevation decreases. 3 Model simulations using the Relative Elevation Model indicate that peat collapse in the high impact basin mangrove forest would be 37 mm year − 1 for the 2 years immediately after the storm, as root material decomposed. In the absence of renewed root growth, the model predicts that peat collapse will continue for at least 8 more years at a rate (7 mm year − 1 ) similar to that measured (11 mm year − 1 ). 4 Mass tree mortality caused rapid elevation loss. Few trees survived and recovery of the high impact forest will thus depend primarily on seedling recruitment. Because seedling establishment is controlled in large part by sediment elevation in relation to tide height, continued peat collapse could further impair recovery rates.

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Couvillion, B.R.; Steyer, G.D.; Wang, H.; Beck, H.J., and Rybczyk, J.M., 2013. Forecasting the effects of coastal protection and restoration projects on wetland morphology in coastal Louisiana under multiple environmental uncertainty scenarios.Few landscape scale models have assessed the effects of coastal protection and restoration projects on wetland morphology while taking into account important uncertainties in environmental factors such as sea-level rise (SLR) and subsidence. In support of Louisiana's 2012 Coastal Master Plan, we developed a spatially explicit wetland morphology model and coupled it with other predictive models. The model is capable of predicting effects of protection and restoration projects on wetland area, landscape configuration, surface elevation, and soil organic carbon (SOC) storage under multiple environmental uncertainty scenarios. These uncertainty scenarios included variability in parameters such as eustatic SLR (ESLR), subsidence rate, and Mississippi River discharge. Models were run for a 2010-2060 simulation period. Model results suggest that under a ''future-without-action'' condition (FWOA), coastal Louisiana is at risk of losing between 2118 and 4677 km 2 of land over the next 50 years, but with protection and restoration projects proposed in the Master Plan, between 40% and 75% of that loss could be mitigated. Moreover, model results indicate that under a FWOA condition, SOC storage (to a depth of 1 m) could decrease by between 108 and 250 million metric tons, a loss of 12% to 30% of the total coastwide SOC, but with the Master Plan implemented, between 35% and 74% of the SOC loss could be offset. Long-term maintenance of project effects was best attained in areas of low SLR and subsidence, with a sediment source to support marsh accretion. Our findings suggest that despite the efficacy of restoration projects in mitigating losses in certain areas, net loss of wetlands in coastal Louisiana is likely to continue. Model results suggest certain areas may eventually be lost regardless of proposed restoration investment, and, as such, other techniques and strategies of adaptation may have to be utilized in these areas.

There is increasing urgency to implement climate change mitigation strategies that enhance greenhouse gas removal from the atmosphere and reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Recently, coastal “blue carbon” habitats⁠—mangroves, salt marshes, and seagrass meadows—have received attention for their ability to capture CO2 and store organic carbon (OC), primarily in their sediments. Across habitat types and regions, however, information about the sequestration rates and sources of carbon to local sediments remains sparse. Here we compiled recently obtained estimates of sediment OC stocks and sequestration rates from 139 cores collected from temperate seagrass (Zostera marina) meadows in Alaska, British Columbia, Washington, and Oregon. Across all cores sediment OC content averaged 0.75%. Organic carbon stocks in the top 25 cm and 1 m of the sediment averaged 1,846 and 7,168 g OC m−2, respectively. Carbon sequestration rates ranged from 4.6 to 93.0 g OC m−2 yr−1 and averaged 24.8 g OC m−2 yr−1. Isotopic data from this region suggest that OC in the sediments is largely from noneelgrass sources. In general, these values are comparable to those from other temperate Z. marina meadows, but significantly lower than previously reported values for seagrasses globally. These results further highlight the need for local and species‐level quantification of blue carbon parameters. While temperate eelgrass meadows may not sequester and store as much carbon as seagrass meadows elsewhere, climate policy incentives should still be implemented to protect existing sediment carbon stocks and the other critical ecosystem services associated with eelgrass habitats.

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