Saline water was common in south-west Western Australian aquatic systems prior to land-clearing because most streams and wetlands were ephemeral and evapo-concentrated as they dried, and there were high concentrations of stored salt in groundwater and soil profiles. Nevertheless, a 1998 review of salinity trends in rivers of south-west Western Australia showed that 20-fold increases in salinity concentrations had occurred since clearing in the medium-rainfall zone (300–700 mm). More recent data confirm these trends and show that elevated salinities have already caused substantial changes to the biological communities of aquatic ecosystems. Further substantial changes will occur, despite the flora and fauna of the south-west being comparatively well adapted to the presence of salinity in the landscape. Up to one-third of wetland and river invertebrate species, large numbers of plants and a substantial proportion of the waterbird fauna will disappear from the wheatbelt, a region that has high biodiversity value and endemism. Increased salinities are not the only threat associated with salinisation: increased water volumes, longer periods of inundation and more widespread acidity are also likely to be detrimental to the biota.

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A long-term water balance model has been developed to predict the hydrological effects of land-use change (especially forest clearing) in small experimental catchments in the south-west of Western Australia. This small catchment model has been used as the building block for the development of a large catchment-scale model, and has also formed the basis for a coupled water and salt balance model, developed to predict the changes in stream salinity resulting from land-use and climate change. The application of the coupled salt and water balance model to predict stream salinities in two small experimental catchments, and the application of the large catchment-scale model to predict changes in water yield in a medium-sized catchment that is being mined for bauxite, are presented in Parts 2 and 3, respectively, of this series of papers.The small catchment model has been designed as a simple, robust, conceptually based model of the basic daily water balance fluxes in forested catchments. The responses of the catchment to rainfall and pan evaporation are conceptualized in terms of three interdependent subsurface stores A, B and F. Store A depicts a near-stream perched aquifer system; B represents a deeper, permanent groundwater system; and F is an intermediate, unsaturated infiltration store. The responses of these stores are characterized by a set of constitutive relations which involves a number of conceptual parameters. These parameters are estimated by calibration by comparing observed and predicted runoff. The model has performed very well in simulations carried out on Salmon and Wights, two small experimental catchments in the Collie River basin in south-west Western Australia. The results from the application of the model to these small catchments are presented in this paper.