The problems facing the country and the issues of concern to the voters shape the competitive environment of an election. Democrats "own" some issues; Republicans "own" others. Democrats have an electoral advantage when problems and issues associated with social welfare and intergroup relationships are salient. Republicans have an advantage when issues related to taxes, spending, and the size of government are high on the public agenda. Performance issues, such as the conduct of government of cials, the state of the economy, or the country's status and security among other nations, are not automatically owned by a single party, but can provide an advantage to a candidate when events, of cial behavior, and policy successes and failures allow the candidate to claim credit for good times or blame the opposition for bad times. Thus, candidates campaign on issues that confer an advantage in order to prime their salience in the decisional calculus of the voters. 1
In this article we explore the personal vote costs of redistricting. After redistricting, incumbents often face significant numbers of new voters-voters that were previously in a different incumbent's district. Existing conceptualizations of the incumbency advantage suggest that the cost to incumbents of having new voters should be relatively small and predictable. We propose a different formulation: a variable incumbency advantage. We argue that any incumbency advantage among the electorate is a function of short-term effects, partisanship, and electoral saliency. We use a massive untapped dataset of neighborhood-level electoral data to test our model and to demonstrate how the intersection of the personal vote, redistricting, and short-term environmental variables can provide a healthy margin to incumbents-or end their careers.
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