Subjects were asked to evaluate student performance based on two sources of information differing in variability. In Experiment 1 the relative variability of test scores and paper grades assigned to a given student had no effect on the weighting of information, and evaluations were based on averaging the two types of information. In Experiments 2 and 3 the weighting of test scores was compared for a highly variable grader and a less variable grader. Differential weighting occurred only when instructions linked variability to reliability. It was concluded that evaluators can assign less weight to a source of information perceived to be less reliable but they will not ordinarily use relative variability of scores as an index of reliability.
Analyses of information integration and of retention were used to examine the processing of deviant information in prediction and evaluation tasks. Sets of test scores were presented serially for a group of hypothetical students, and subjects were asked to evaluate the performance of each student or predict each student's performance on a comprehensive final exam. An averaging model with greater weight for the more recent scores than for the earlier scores was supported for both types of task, but the recency was more pronounced in the prediction task. Weighting of deviant scores differed in the prediction and evaluation tasks. Significant discounting iunderweighting) of deviant scores was obtained only in the prediction task. The ability to recall deviant scores on uncued tests of retention was higher in the prediction task than in the evaluation task. Prediction of future performance based on inconsistent measures of past performance thus appears to be an active process involving the discovery and discounting of unrepresentative information.A common theme in recent reviews of human judgment research is the move from normative theory. with its emphasis on comparisons of actual to optimal behavior, to descriptive models, with concomitant emphasis on psychological interpretations of observed behavior (Anderson, 1974; Kahneman & Tversky, 1973;Slovic, Fischhoff, & Lichtenstein, 1977; Slovic & Lichtenstein, 1971). An interesting question in the formulation of models of human judgment is how deviant pieces of information are processed. The present study uses descriptive models to provide a framework for examining the processing of deviant information in situations involving prediction and evaluation. Kahneman and Tversky (1973) studied "the psychology of prediction" and concluded that people violate the logic of statistical prediction by disregarding factors such as information reliability and prior outcome probability, while relying almost exclusively on the heuristic of "representativeness." According to these authors, people predict by selecting the outcome that is most representative of the input, as if the input information were error free. In their studies, predictions and evaluations tended to coincide. But what if the input information contains inconsistencies that call to question the reliability of the information? The present hypothesis is that the integration of information under such circumstances will differ for predictions and evaluations.The current prediction task is one in which subjects are given a set of test scores for each of a series of hypothetical students and are asked to predict each Requests for reprints should be addressed to Irwin P. Levin,
Visual responses to briefly presented sequential displays were studied in two experiments exploring stimulus contrast variation influences on target acquisition. When two stimuli are presented in close temporal and spatial proximity, the target stimulus (TS) information is changed by the flanking or surrounding mask stimulus (MS). The observers' visual response characteristics or TS information bandwidth varies in a nonmonotonic U-shaped fashion as the temporal difference between TS and MS onset (stimulus onset asynchrony or SOA) increases (Type B masking). Experiment 1 varied only TS contrast; Experiment 2 varied only MS contrast.Observer responses to TS shape and location in the visual field were measured as a function of SOA and stimulus contrast.Data were evaluated by estimating the maximum of the regression functions describing the empirical masking functions.For Experiment 1, as TS contrast decreased, the SOA of maximum shape masking also decreased.SOA for maximum location masking was lower than that for shape responses.Experiment 2 revealed an attenuation of the Type B shape masking function as MS contrast was reduced.Location masking was minimal.In conclusion, variation of user visual response characteristics may prove useful in optimizing information bandwidth during human /computer display dialogues.
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