PurposeThis paper aims to explore empirically the interactions between the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, economic mobility and containment policy to test the effectiveness of mobility restrictions in controlling the spread of the disease.Design/methodology/approachThis study used weekly regional data for the 17 Philippine regions and estimated the effect of shocks using a panel vector autoregression (VAR) model.FindingsThe authors conclude that COVID-19 deaths and incidence primarily respond to shocks that affect the lethality and transmissibility of the disease, and mobility restrictions and strict quarantine levels do not seem to have any impact on these outcomes. The movement of people during this pandemic period, on the other hand, seems to respond more to economic factors and government restrictions and less to the presence of and the characteristics of the disease.Originality/valueSince the pandemic is a public bad, community cooperation is a must to address it. Clear government messaging that dispels doubts on the safety of the newly developed vaccines and that encourages public acceptance and trust might be a better nudge compared to a heavy-handed and threatening approach.
Access to finance is critical to support the growth of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). However, lack of access to adequate financing is one of the biggest obstacles that SMEs face. This paper analyzed the relationship between firm characteristics and credit constraints among SMEs in the Philippines. We determined which firm characteristics are correlated to the predicted probability of being credit-constrained or “quasi-constrained” — i.e., able to borrow from informal sources. Estimates of marginal effects at the means (MEMs) from logistic regressions provide some suggestive evidence that increased firm size, previous purchase of fixed assets, and increased use of digital technologies for accounting and financial management are associated with a lower predicted probability of being credit-constrained. The use of digital technologies in accounting and financial management is also associated with a lower probability of credit constraint in informal financial markets.
Using work from home (WFH) scores obtained by matching Philippine occupations with U.S. O*NET occupations, this paper estimates that only 12.38% of all workers can WFH and 25.7% of Philippine occupations are teleworkable––mostly from the following occupational groups: professionals, clerical support workers, and technicians and associate professionals. The education, real estate and, professional, scientific and technical sectors account for the largest share of teleworkable jobs. Those workers belonging to lower per capita income deciles, who are male, who have lower levels of education, who are self-employed, aged 55 and older, and who are working in sectors such as agriculture and retail, are also less likely to be in teleworkable occupations. JEL codes: J240, J280
We evaluate the impact of the Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program, a conditional cash transfer (CCT) program in the Philippines, on household welfare in the presence of various shocks to household members such as death, illness, loss of employment, business failure, and natural or man-made disasters. Using a regression discontinuity design (RDD), we estimate whether the CCT program induces its beneficiary households to adjust their spending patterns differently from nonbeneficiaries when exposed to shocks. Our estimates show that on average, CCT beneficiary households may allot anywhere from 1.2 to 2 percentage points smaller share of their household income on alcohol and tobacco, relative to non-CCT beneficiary households when exposed to shocks. We find no evidence that CCT beneficiary households adjust their spending on education when exposed to shocks.1 Studies included in the systematic review were restricted to those published after 1997 (when PROGRESA was implemented) and only those which used experimental (randomized controlled trials) and quasi-experimental designs with a controlled comparison group. A detailed list of databases and search terms used can be found in Baird, Ferreira, Özler, and Woolcock (2014). 2 The Programa de Educación, Salud y Alimentación (PROGRESA), also referred to as Oportunidades, is a conditional cash transfer program implemented in Mexico in 1997. Poor mothers in rural communities received cash transfers under the condition that their children regularly use the available health facilities and attend school. 3 The authors restrict the sample to only include children who belong to poor, eligible households. 4 The authors also examine the heterogenous effects of these shocks on different children sub-groups, conditional on CCT receipt. For instance, they learn that unemployment of the household head affects the schooling outcomes of boys more than girls; while severe natural disasters affect girls more than boys.
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