Increasing domestic revenue mobilization remains a challenge for many governments, particularly in low-income countries. Using a sample of East African countries, the study sets off to investigate the impact of financial development from a multi-dimensional perspective on tax revenues for the period 1990 to 2014, and how political development and the control of corruption would enhance the observed nexus. The dynamic panel results from the system GMM estimation approach indicate a significant role of financial development overall and the financial institutions and financial markets in particular. A disaggregation of the duo suggests that it is the depth of financial institutions that greatly matters for tax revenue, with a one per cent change expected to yield about 0.26 per cent change in tax collections. It is then followed by their level of accessibility, financial market depth and efficiency. We fail to find significant evidence in support of financial market access and financial institutions efficiency although the possibility for the latter seems indismissible. Further evidence points to the catalytic nature of a good institutional and political environment in pursuit of higher tax-GDP ratio via financial development. Policies to promote the depth and accessibility of financial institutions as well the depth and efficiency of financial markets in East Africa alongside well-focused anti-corruption programs and democratic governance are likely to yield better fiscal outcomes in terms of domestic tax revenues critically needed to achieve the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. We also confirm the positive role played by the lagged tax revenue, per capita GDP, trade openness, debt-to-GDP ratio and population density in the tax effort.
The ultimate goal of regional integration is the long-term high economic growth for member states. Tax revenues are critical to achieving this objective, given the high dependence of developing countries on this fiscal revenue. However, empirical studies have been unable to determine whether regional integration improves or impedes the mobilization of taxes. We use data from 1980 to 2014 in order to estimate a tax model; the results based on the generalized method of moments technique reveal that East African regional integration has had a significant impact on tax revenue owing to the presence of good institutions. We advocate any policy agenda aimed at improving institutional environment, financial sector, macroeconomic stability, and manufacturing and trade, as well as a well-integrated approach to reduce a shadow economy. Finally, given the deleterious nature of capital account liberalization, we believe that cautiously designed capital control policies are likely to enhance tax collections in East Africa.
We set out to investigate the relationship between public debt and private investment using a panel of four countries in East Africa for the period 1992-2015. The results from the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Models show that Public Debt (PD) crowds out both Private Domestic Investment (PDI) and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the long run, although the magnitude of the impact is greater for the former category. We fail to find evidence of any short run significant relationship in either case. However, the importance of institutional quality in enhancing relationship in question is unquestionably confirmed in the data. The effect of PD on either PDI or FDI is observed to change when the corruption control improves. The immediate recommendation is the need to design fiscal policies to tame the growing debt that appears to discourage private investment in the region. A proper debt management system coupled with clear policies to improve the institutional quality would likely boost private investment in East Africa. The anti-corruption measures already in place should be enhanced to create a conducive investment climate for the private sector to thrive.
Developing countries have continued to experience an unprecedented increase in direct foreign investment (FDI) inflows for the past two decades. However, the quantitative impact of the same on private domestic investment (PDI) is still imprecise. Using a system GMM approach and panel data from Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) for the period 1996–2013, we provide evidence in support of the crowding out role of FDI on PDI but the observed nexus is precipitated by the presence of liberalization, human capital development and institutional quality. Interestingly, when we consider the latter variables uninteracted, the improvement of each appears to significantly benefit PDI. In addition, the substitution role of FDI in PDI appears to be stronger in resource-rich than in the resource-poor countries. Additionally, we find that public investment crowds out private investment whereas infrastructure development, past private investment, credit depth, and GDP per capita are supportive of the PDI. However, we document mixed evidence for sub-samples of the East African Community, the Southern Africa Development Corporation, the Economic Community and West African States, and the Economic Community of Central African States. Overall, our study underscores the urgent need for well-directed policies in line with improving institutions, school enrolment, financial systems, infrastructure, and the government prioritization of productive investment that is supportive of the private as well as foreign sector. We advocate for reviews of incentive packages to foreign firms that discourage fair competition if the PDI-FDI complementarity and consequential positive spillovers to other sectors are to be realized for economic development in SSA.
The paper set out to investigate the nexus between institutional quality and inward FDI and how the presence of liberalization and financial development influence this linkage. We build on Dunning's eclectic paradigm that focuses on locational advantages. A fixed effects approach is employed and the estimation results confirm the crucial role of institutional quality in attracting FDI inflows. However the impact varies with the particular group. In particular, apart from SADC, institutional quality seems to matter significantly in all the other groups especially in EAC and ECOWAS. Additional findings reveal a mixed impact regarding the presence of financial development and liberalization in the institution-FDI nexus: While Trade liberalization policies seem to be at the forefront in ECOWAS and SADC groups, it is credit depth and capital account openness that appear to matter most in EAC. We confirm the resilience of inward FDI during the global crisis and document a positive significant relationship between FDI inflows on the one hand and host market size and infrastructure development on the other. While a one-size-fits-all-policy should be discouraged due to the heterogeneous nature of SSA countries, overall, a comprehensive set of policies designed with caution to improve the institutional quality, the financial system, trade openness and capital account liberalization would be valuable for attracting FDI inflows to SSA.
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