The Earth's biota is changing over time in complex ways. A critical challenge is to test whether specific biomes, taxa or types of species benefit or suffer in a time of accelerating global change. We analysed nearly 10,000 abundance time series from over 2000 vertebrate species part of the Living Planet Database. We integrated abundance data with information on geographic range, habitat preference, taxonomic and phylogenetic relationships, and IUCN Red List Categories and threats. We find that 15% of populations declined, 18% increased, and 67% showed no net changes over time. Against a backdrop of no biogeographic and phylogenetic patterning in population change, we uncover a distinct taxonomic signal. Amphibians were the only taxa that experienced net declines in the analysed data, while birds, mammals and reptiles experienced net increases. Population trends were poorly captured by species' rarity and global-scale threats. Incorporation of the full spectrum of population change will improve conservation efforts to protect global biodiversity.

144 words 24Main text: 4589 words 25 . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a (which was not peer-reviewed) is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. We will make all R code for the analyses and data publicly available on GitHub and will 36 include the relevant DOIs and links. 37 International license It is made available under a (which was not peer-reviewed) is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint .

Summary CO 2 efflux from stems (CO 2_stem) accounts for a substantial fraction of tropical forest gross primary productivity, but the climate sensitivity of this flux remains poorly understood.We present a study of tropical forest CO 2_stem from 215 trees across wet and dry seasons, at the world's longest running tropical forest drought experiment site.We show a 27% increase in wet season CO 2_stem in the droughted forest relative to a control forest. This was driven by increasing CO 2_stem in trees 10–40 cm diameter. Furthermore, we show that drought increases the proportion of maintenance to growth respiration in trees > 20 cm diameter, including large increases in maintenance respiration in the largest droughted trees, > 40 cm diameter. However, we found no clear taxonomic influence on CO 2_stem and were unable to accurately predict how drought sensitivity altered ecosystem scale CO 2_stem, due to substantial uncertainty introduced by contrasting methods previously employed to scale CO 2_stem fluxes.Our findings indicate that under future scenarios of elevated drought, increases in CO 2_stem may augment carbon losses, weakening or potentially reversing the tropical forest carbon sink. However, due to substantial uncertainties in scaling CO 2_stem fluxes, stand‐scale future estimates of changes in stem CO 2 emissions remain highly uncertain.

AimTree crowns determine light interception, carbon and water exchange. Thus, understanding the factors causing tree crown allometry to vary at the tree and stand level matters greatly for the development of future vegetation modelling and for the calibration of remote sensing products. Nevertheless, we know little about large‐scale variation and determinants in tropical tree crown allometry. In this study, we explored the continental variation in scaling exponents of site‐specific crown allometry and assessed their relationships with environmental and stand‐level variables in the tropics.LocationGlobal tropics.Time periodEarly 21st century.Major taxa studiedWoody plants.MethodsUsing a dataset of 87,737 trees distributed among 245 forest and savanna sites across the tropics, we fitted site‐specific allometric relationships between crown dimensions (crown depth, diameter and volume) and stem diameter using power‐law models. Stand‐level and environmental drivers of crown allometric relationships were assessed at pantropical and continental scales.ResultsThe scaling exponents of allometric relationships between stem diameter and crown dimensions were higher in savannas than in forests. We identified that continental crown models were better than pantropical crown models and that continental differences in crown allometric relationships were driven by both stand‐level (wood density) and environmental (precipitation, cation exchange capacity and soil texture) variables for both tropical biomes. For a given diameter, forest trees from Asia and savanna trees from Australia had smaller crown dimensions than trees in Africa and America, with crown volumes for some Asian forest trees being smaller than those of trees in African forests.Main conclusionsOur results provide new insight into geographical variability, with large continental differences in tropical tree crown allometry that were driven by stand‐level and environmental variables. They have implications for the assessment of ecosystem function and for the monitoring of woody biomass by remote sensing techniques in the global tropics.

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Positive biodiversity-ecosystem function relationships (BEFRs) have been widely documented, but it is unclear if BEFRs should be expected in disturbance-driven systems. Disturbance may limit competition and niche differentiation, which are frequently posited to underlie BEFRs. We provide the first exploration of the relationship between tree species diversity and biomass, one measure of ecosystem function, across southern African woodlands and savannas, an ecological system rife with disturbance from fire, herbivores and humans.We used > 1000 vegetation plots distributed across 10 southern African countries and structural equation modelling to determine the relationship between tree species diversity and above-ground woody biomass, accounting for interacting effects of resource availability, disturbance by fire, tree stem density and vegetation type.We found positive effects of tree species diversity on above-ground biomass, operating via increased structural diversity. The observed BEFR was highly dependent on organismal density, with a minimum threshold of c. 180 mature stems ha −1 . We found that water availability mainly affects biomass indirectly, via increasing species diversity.The study underlines the close association between tree diversity, ecosystem structure, environment and function in highly disturbed savannas and woodlands. We suggest that tree diversity is an under-appreciated determinant of wooded ecosystem structure and function.

Seasonally dry woodlands are the dominant land cover across southern Africa. They are biodiverse, structurally complex, and important for ecosystem service provision. Species composition and structure vary across the region producing a diverse array of woodland types. The woodlands of the Huíla plateau in southwest Angola represent the extreme southwestern extent of the miombo ecoregion and are markedly drier than other woodlands within this ecoregion. They remain understudied, however, compared to woodlands further east in the miombo ecoregion. We aimed to elucidate further the tree diversity found within southwestern Angolan woodlands by conducting a plot-based study in Bicuar National Park, comparing tree species composition and woodland structure with similar plots in Tanzania, Mozambique, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. We found Bicuar National Park had comparatively low tree species diversity, but contained 27 tree species not found in other plots. Plots in Bicuar had low basal area, excepting plots dominated by Baikiaea plurijuga. In a comparison of plots in intact vegetation with areas previously disturbed by shifting-cultivation agriculture, we found species diversity was marginally higher in disturbed plots. Bicuar National Park remains an important woodland refuge in Angola, with an uncommon mosaic of woodland types within a small area. While we highlight wide variation in species composition and woodland structure across the miombo ecoregion, plot-based studies with more dense sampling across the ecoregion are clearly needed to more broadly understand regional variation in vegetation diversity, composition and structure.

In tropical Africa, forests and savannas are the two most widespread biomes and potentially represent alternative stable states with a divergent species composition. A classic, but untested, hypothesis posited by White (1983) suggests that the transition zones between forests and savannas contain a floristically impoverished assemblage, with few representatives from each biome. Further, the evolutionary dimension of diversity has received limited attention, despite its importance for understanding the biogeographic history of biomes. Here, we quantified species richness and several measures of evolutionary diversity in 1° grid cells, using c. 300,000 occurrence records of trees and shrubs combined with biome affiliation data for 3203 species. We found that assemblages in transition zones hold fewer woody species than assemblages in forest and savanna zones, as posited by White. However, transition zones hold more phylogenetic diversity than expected given their species richness, whether one considers forest and savanna assemblages separately or together. We also show that the Congo Basin forest has low levels of phylogenetic diversity, given the number of species, and highlight south-eastern African savannas as a centre of savanna woody species richness and phylogenetic diversity. Regions with high phylogenetic diversity, given the number of both forest and savanna species, were centred around the Dahomey Gap and Cameroon, mainly in transition zones. Overall, our study shows that even if floristically impoverished, transition zones hold unexpectedly high evolutionary diversity. This suggests that they are important centres of evolutionary innovation and diversification and/or serve as evolutionary crossroads, where lineages that diversified in contrasting environments coexist within a single area.