The separation of the effects of environmental variability from the impacts of fishing has been elusive, but is essential for sound fisheries management. We distinguish environmental effects from fishing effects by comparing the temporal variability of exploited versus unexploited fish stocks living in the same environments. Using the unique suite of 50-year-long larval fish surveys from the California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations we analyse fishing as a treatment effect in a long-term ecological experiment. Here we present evidence from the marine environment that exploited species exhibit higher temporal variability in abundance than unexploited species. This remains true after accounting for life-history effects, abundance, ecological traits and phylogeny. The increased variability of exploited populations is probably caused by fishery-induced truncation of the age structure, which reduces the capacity of populations to buffer environmental events. Therefore, to avoid collapse, fisheries must be managed not only to sustain the total viable biomass but also to prevent the significant truncation of age structure. The double jeopardy of fishing to potentially deplete stock sizes and, more immediately, to amplify the peaks and valleys of population variability, calls for a precautionary management approach.

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[1] The basal mass balance of the Amery Ice Shelf (AIS) in East Antarctica is investigated using a numerical ocean model. The main improvements of this model over previous studies are the inclusion of frazil formation and dynamics, tides and the use of the latest estimate of the sub-ice-shelf cavity geometry. The model produces a net basal melt rate of 45.6 Gt year À1 (0.74 m ice year À1 ) which is in good agreement with reviewed observations. The melting at the base of the ice shelf is primarily due to interaction with High Salinity Shelf Water created from the surface sea-ice formation in winter. The temperature difference between the coldest waters created in the open ocean and the in situ freezing point of ocean water in contact with the deepest part of the AIS drives a melt rate that can exceed 30 m of ice year À1. The inclusion of frazil dynamics is shown to be important for both melting and marine ice accretion (refreezing). Frazil initially forms in the supercooled water layer adjacent to the base of the ice shelf. The net accretion of marine ice is 5.3 Gt year À1 , comprised of 3.7 Gt year À1 of frazil accretion and 1.6 Gt year À1 of direct basal refreezing.

Reproductive timing can be defined as the temporal pattern of reproduction over a lifetime. Although reproductive timing is highly variable in marine fishes, certain traits are universal, including sexual maturity, undergoing one or more reproductive cycles, participating in one or more spawning events within a reproductive cycle, release of eggs or offspring, aging, and death. These traits commonly occur at four temporal scales: lifetime, annual, intraseasonal, and diel. It has long been known that reproductive timing affects reproductive success, especially in terms of the onset of sexual maturity and the match or mismatch between seasonal spawning and offspring survival. However, a comprehensive understanding of variability in reproductive timing over species, populations, and temporal scales is lacking. In addition, there is a need to assess how variability in reproductive timing affects a population's resilience. Because natural selection occurs at the individual level, this necessitates an understanding of within-population (i.e., individual) variability in reproductive timing and how fishing may impact it through age truncation and size-specific selectivity or fisheries-induced evolution. In this paper, we review the temporal aspects of reproductive strategies and the four most-studied reproductive timing characteristics in fishes: sexual maturity, spawning seasonality, spawning frequency, and diel periodicity. For each characteristic, we synthesize how it has traditionally been measured, advances in understanding the underlying physiology, its role in equilibriumbased fish population dynamics, and its importance to reproductive success. We then provide a review of emerging methodology-with an emphasis on ovarian histology-to improve our ability to assess variability in reproductive timing both among populations and within populations.

The effect of interannual climate variability and change on the historic, directional wave climate of the Southern Hemisphere is presented. Owing to a lack of in situ wave observations, wave climate in the Southern Hemisphere is determined from satellite altimetry and global ocean wave models. Altimeter data span the period 1985 to present, with the exception of a 2‐year gap in 1989–1991. Interannual variability and trends in the significant wave height are determined from the satellite altimeter record (1991 to present), and the dominant modes of variability are identified using an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. Significant wave heights in the Southern Ocean are observed to show a strong positive correlation with the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), particularly during Austral autumn and winter months. Correlation between altimeter derived significant wave heights and the Southern Oscillation Index is observed in the Pacific basin, which is consistent with several previous studies. Variability and trends of the directional wave climate are determined using the ERA‐40 Waves Re‐analysis for the period 1980–2001. Significant wave height, mean wave period and mean wave direction data are used to describe the climate of the wave energy flux vector. An EOF analysis of the wave energy flux vector is carried out to determine the dominant modes of variability of the directional seasonal wave energy flux climate. The dominant mode of variability during autumn and winter months is strongly correlated to the SAM. There is an anti‐clockwise rotation of wave direction with the southward intensification of the Southern Ocean storm belt associated with the SAM. Clockwise rotation of flux vectors is observed in the Western Pacific Ocean during El‐Nino events. Directional variability of the wave energy flux in the Western Pacific Ocean has previously been shown to be of importance to sand transport along the south‐eastern Australian margin, and the New Zealand region. The directional variability of the wave energy flux of the Southern Ocean associated with the SAM is expected to be of importance to the wave‐driven currents responsible for the transport of sand along coastal margins in the Southern Hemisphere, in particular those on the Southern and Western coastal margins of the Australian continent. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Projections of climate change are inherently uncertain, leading to considerable debate over suitable allowances for future changes such as sea-level rise (an 'allowance' is, in this context, the amount by which something, such as the height of coastal infrastructure, needs to be altered to cope with climate change). Words such as 'plausible' and 'high-end' abound, with little objective or statistically valid support. It is firstly shown that, in cases in which extreme events are modified by an uncertain change in the average (e.g. flooding caused by a rise in mean sea level), it is preferable to base future allowances on estimates of the expected frequency of exceedances rather than on the probability of at least one exceedance. A simple method of determining a future sea-level rise allowance is then derived, based on the projected rise in mean sea level and its uncertainty, and on the variability of present tides and storm surges ('storm tides'). The method preserves the expected frequency of flooding events under a given projection of sea-level rise. It is assumed that the statistics of storm tides relative to mean sea level are unchanged. The method is demonstrated using the GESLA (Global Extreme Sea-Level Analysis) data set of roughly hourly sea levels, covering 198 sites over much of the globe. Two possible projections of sea-level rise are assumed for the 21st century: one based on the Third and Fourth Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and a larger one based on research since the Fourth Assessment Report. Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (

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This paper describes the assembly of an updated quasi-global dataset of higher-frequency sea level information obtained from tide gauges operated by many agencies around the world. We believe that the construction of such a dataset is fundamental to scientific research in sea level variability and also to practical aspects of coastal engineering. A first version of the dataset was used in approximately a dozen published studies, and this second version is about twice the size, containing longer and more geographically representative sea level records. The dataset has acquired a digital object identifier and may be obtained from several sources. The paper mentions some of the merits of and deficiencies with the present version and takes a forward look at how the dataset may be updated in the future.