BackgroundPatients with chronic heart failure (HF) secondary to left ventricular systolic dysfunction (LVSD) are frequently deficient in vitamin D. Low vitamin D levels are associated with a worse prognosis.ObjectivesThe VINDICATE (VitamIN D treatIng patients with Chronic heArT failurE) study was undertaken to establish safety and efficacy of high-dose 25 (OH) vitamin D3 (cholecalciferol) supplementation in patients with chronic HF due to LVSD.MethodsWe enrolled 229 patients (179 men) with chronic HF due to LVSD and vitamin D deficiency (cholecalciferol <50 nmol/l [<20 ng/ml]). Participants were allocated to 1 year of vitamin D3 supplementation (4,000 IU [100 μg] daily) or matching non−calcium-based placebo. The primary endpoint was change in 6-minute walk distance between baseline and 12 months. Secondary endpoints included change in LV ejection fraction at 1 year, and safety measures of renal function and serum calcium concentration assessed every 3 months.ResultsOne year of high-dose vitamin D3 supplementation did not improve 6-min walk distance at 1 year, but was associated with a significant improvement in cardiac function (LV ejection fraction +6.07% [95% confidence interval (CI): 3.20 to 8.95; p < 0.0001]); and a reversal of LV remodeling (LV end diastolic diameter -2.49 mm [95% CI: -4.09 to -0.90; p = 0.002] and LV end systolic diameter -2.09 mm [95% CI: -4.11 to -0.06 p = 0.043]).ConclusionsOne year of 100 μg daily vitamin D3 supplementation does not improve 6-min walk distance but has beneficial effects on LV structure and function in patients on contemporary optimal medical therapy. Further studies are necessary to determine whether these translate to improvements in outcomes. (VitamIN D Treating patIents With Chronic heArT failurE [VINDICATE]; NCT01619891)

Background Noncardiovascular death is increasingly common in people with chronic heart failure ( CHF ), yet its causes remain poorly characterized. We aimed to define the prevalence of sepsis death in people with CHF and to ascertain its risk marker profile. Methods and Results We conducted a prospective cohort study of 1802 patients with CHF and left ventricular ejection fraction ≤45% attending CHF clinics in 4 United Kingdom hospitals between 2006 and 2014. Mode of death was defined over a 10.3‐year follow‐up period (mean 4 years). Competing risk regression defined mode‐specific hazard ratios for sepsis, other noncardiovascular, progressive heart failure, and sudden cardiac death in relation to established heart failure prognostic markers. Of 737 deaths, 173 (23.5%) were due to sepsis; respiratory tract infections accounted for 69.9% (n=121) of these events. Those who died from sepsis were older, had higher platelet counts, and had a higher prevalence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease than those who died from other causes. Sepsis death was independently associated with older age (hazard ratio=1.05; 95% confidence interval 1.03‐1.07), greater prevalence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (2.43; 1.74‐3.40), male sex (1.73; 1.16‐2.60), lower log serum vitamin D (0.68; 0.49‐0.95), and higher platelet count (1.002; 1.000‐1.005) than nonsepsis death. Established heart failure prognostic markers exhibited different patterns of association with sepsis death, other noncardiovascular death, progressive heart failure death, and sudden cardiac death. Conclusions Sepsis is a major contributor to death in people with CHF and has a different risk marker profile from other modes of death, suggesting that it may be amenable to targeted preventative strategies.

ObjectiveEstimating survival can aid care planning, but the use of absolute survival projections can be challenging for patients and clinicians to contextualise. We aimed to define how heart failure and its major comorbidities contribute to loss of actuarially predicted life expectancy.MethodsWe conducted an observational cohort study of 1794 adults with stable chronic heart failure and reduced left ventricular ejection fraction, recruited from cardiology outpatient departments of four UK hospitals. Data from an 11-year maximum (5-year median) follow-up period (999 deaths) were used to define how heart failure and its major comorbidities impact on survival, relative to an age–sex matched control UK population, using a relative survival framework.ResultsAfter 10 years, mortality in the reference control population was 29%. In people with heart failure, this increased by an additional 37% (95% CI 34% to 40%), equating to an additional 2.2 years of lost life or a 2.4-fold (2.2–2.5) excess loss of life. This excess was greater in men than women (2.4 years (2.2–2.7) vs 1.6 years (1.2–2.0); p<0.001). In patients without major comorbidity, men still experienced excess loss of life, while women experienced less and were non-significantly different from the reference population (1 year (0.6–1.5) vs 0.4 years (−0.3 to 1); p<0.001). Accrual of comorbidity was associated with substantial increases in excess lost life, particularly for diabetes, chronic kidney and lung disease.ConclusionsComorbidity accounts for the majority of lost life expectancy in people with heart failure. Women, but not men, without comorbidity experience survival close to reference controls.

Background: Hospitalization is a common adverse event in people with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction, yet is often not primarily due to decompensated heart failure (HF). We investigated the long-term prognosis following infection-related hospitalization. Methods: We conducted a prospective observational cohort study of 711 people with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction recruited from 4 specialist HF clinics in the United Kingdom. All hospitalization episodes (n=1568) were recorded and categorized as primarily due to decompensated HF, other cardiovascular disease, infection-related, or other noncardiovascular disease. Survival was determined after the first hospitalization. Results: During 2900 patient-years of follow-up, there were a total of 14 686 hospital days. At least one hospitalization occurred in 467 people (66%); 25% of first hospitalizations were primarily due to infection and these were not associated with typical signs including tachycardia and pyrexia. Compared with other categories of hospitalization, infection-related was associated with older age, lower serum albumin, higher blood neutrophil counts, and greater prevalence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease at recruitment. Median survival after first infection-related hospitalization was 18.6 months, comparable to that after first decompensated HF hospitalization, even after age-sex adjustment. The burden of all-cause rehospitalization was comparable irrespective of the category of first hospitalization, but infection more commonly caused re-hospitalization after index infection hospitalization. Conclusions: Infection is a common driver of hospitalization in heart failure and reduced ejection fraction and often presents without classical signs. It is associated with high mortality rates, comparable to decompensated HF, and a major burden of rehospitalization caused by recurrent episodes of infection.

Background The Surprise Question: ‘would you be surprised if this patient were to die within the next year?’ has been shown to predict mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease and cancer. This prospective study aimed to determine whether the Surprise Question could identify heart failure patients with a prognosis of less than 1 year, and whether the Surprise Question can be used by different healthcare professionals. Methods and results Overall, 129 consecutive patients admitted with decompensated heart failure were included. Doctors and nurses were asked to provide a ‘surprised’ or ‘not surprised’ response to the Surprise Question for each patient. Patients were followed up until death or 1 year following study inclusion. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of the Surprise Question were assessed. Cox regression was used to determine covariates significantly associated with survival. The Surprise Question showed excellent sensitivity (0.85) and negative predictive value (0.88) but only fair specificity (0.59) and positive predictive value (0.52) when asked of cardiologists. There were similar levels of accuracy between doctors and specialist nurses. The Surprise Question was significantly associated with all‐cause mortality in multivariate regression analysis (hazard ratio 2.8, 95% confidence interval 1.0–7.9, P = 0.046). Conclusion This study demonstrates that the Surprise Question can identify heart failure patients within the last year of life. Despite over‐classification of patients into the ‘not surprised’ category, the Surprise Question identified nearly all patients who were within the last year of life, whilst also accurately identifying those unlikely to die.