ABSTRACT. Subjective probabilities play a role in many economic decisions. There is a large theoretical literature on the elicitation of subjective probabilities, and an equally large empirical literature. However, there is a gulf between the two. The theoretical literature proposes a range of procedures that can be used to recover subjective probabilities, but stresses the need to make strong auxiliary assumptions or "calibrating adjustments" to elicited reports in order to recover the latent probability. With some notable exceptions, the empirical literature seems intent on either making those strong assumptions or ignoring the need for calibration. We illustrate how the joint estimation of risk attitudes and subjective probabilities using structural maximum likelihood methods can provide the calibration adjustments that theory calls for. This allows the observer to make inferences about the latent subjective probability, calibrating for virtually any well-specified model of choice under uncertainty. We demonstrate our procedures with experiments in which we elicit subjective probabilities. We calibrate the estimates of subjective beliefs assuming that choices are made consistently with expected utility theory or rank-dependent utility theory. Inferred subjective probabilities are significantly different when calibrated according to either theory, thus showing the importance of undertaking such exercises. Our findings also have implications for the interpretation of probabilities inferred from prediction markets. † Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School, Copenhagen, Denmark (Andersen); Department of Economics, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand (Fountain); Department of Risk Management & Insurance and CEAR, Robinson College of Business, Georgia State University, USA (Harrison); and Robinson College of Business, Georgia State University, USA (Rutström). E-mail contacts: sa.eco@cbs.dk, john.fountain@canterbury.ac.nz, gharrison@gsu.edu and erutstrom@gmail.com. We thank the U.S. National Science Foundation for research support under grants NSF/HSD 0527675 and NSF/SES 0616746. We are grateful to John Duffy, Peter Wakker, Randall Walsh and Nathaniel Wilcox for discussions.-1-Subjective probabilities about some event are operationally defined as those probabilities that lead an agent to make certain choices over outcomes that depend on that event. These choices could be as natural as placing a bet on a horse race, or as structured as responding to the payoffs provided by some scoring rule. In order to infer subjective probabilities from observed choices of this kind, however, one either has to make some strong assumptions about risk attitudes or jointly estimate risk attitudes and subjective probabilities. We show how the latter can be implemented by pairing several tasks together, some of which identify risk attitudes and some of which identify the interplay between risk attitudes and subjective probabilities. Joint estimation of a structural model of choice across these two types of ta...

Paracetamol is involved in a large proportion of accidental paediatric exposures and deliberate self‐poisoning cases, although subsequent hepatic failure and death are both uncommon outcomes. The optimal management of most patients with paracetamol overdose is usually straightforward. However, several differing nomograms and varying recommendations regarding potential risk factors for hepatic injury introduce complexity. In order to reconcile management advice with current Australasian clinical toxicology practice, revised guidelines have been developed by a panel of clinical toxicologists consulting to the poisons information centres in Australia and New Zealand using a workshop and consultative process. This article summarises the rationale for the recommendations made in these new guidelines.

Several species of the Veratrum genus are associated with toxicity in humans and animals. The principal toxins are steroid alkaloids; some have a modified steroid template, whereas others differ in their esterified acid moieties. These alkaloids act by increasing the permeability of the sodium channels of nerve cells, causing them to fire continuously. Increased stimulation, associated with the vagal nerve results in a reflex that causes the triad of responses known as the Bezold-Jarisch reflex: hypotension, bradycardia and apnoea. Clinically, various Veratrum extracts were marketed for clinical use as antihypertensive drugs, but because of their narrow therapeutic index were withdrawn from the market. Following the ingestion of Veratrum alkaloids, expected signs and symptoms include vomiting and abdominal pain, followed by cardiovascular effects such as bradycardia, hypotension and cardiac conduction abnormalities and death. Similar symptoms arise in other mammalian species ingesting these alkaloids; teratogenic effects may occur to the fetuses of animals that have grazed on Veratrum californicum. Treatment consists of supportive care, with an emphasis on haemodynamic stability with fluid replacement, atropine and vasopressors. The onset of symptoms occurs between 30 minutes and 4 hours, and the duration of the illness can range from 1 to 10 days; however, with prompt supportive care, patients typically make a full recovery within 24 hours.

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The fatal toxicity for zopiclone was not significantly different from that for benzodiazepines as a group when adjusted for usage, whereas alprazolam and chlormethiazole had greater toxicity. Hypnosedatives are contributory factors rather than primary substances in poisoning deaths.