The rapid expansion of road networks has reduced connectivity among populations of flora and fauna. The resulting isolation is assumed to increase population extinction rates, in part because of the loss of genetic diversity. However, there are few cases where loss of genetic diversity has been linked directly to roads or other barriers. We analysed the effects of such barriers on connectivity and genetic diversity of 27 populations of Ovis canadensis nelsoni (desert bighorn sheep). We used partial Mantel tests, multiple linear regression and coalescent simulations to infer changes in gene flow and diversity of nuclear and mitochondrial DNA markers. Our findings link a rapid reduction in genetic diversity (up to 15%) to as few as 40 years of anthropogenic isolation. Interstate highways, canals and developed areas, where present, have apparently eliminated gene flow. These results suggest that anthropogenic barriers constitute a severe threat to the persistence of naturally fragmented populations.

Summary 1.Better tools are needed to predict population connectivity in complex landscapes. 'Least-cost modelling' is one commonly employed approach in which dispersal costs are assigned to distinct habitat types and the least-costly dispersal paths among habitat patches are calculated using a geographical information system (GIS). Because adequate data on dispersal are usually lacking, dispersal costs are often assigned solely from expert opinion. Spatially explicit, high-resolution genetic data may be used to infer variation in animal movements. We employ such an approach to estimate habitatspecific migration rates and to develop least-cost connectivity models for desert bighorn sheep Ovis canadensis nelsoni . 2. Bighorn sheep dispersal is thought to be affected by distance and topography. We incorporated both factors into least-cost GIS models with different parameter values and estimated effective geographical distances among 26 populations. We assessed which model was correlated most strongly with gene flow estimates among those populations, while controlling for the effect of anthropogenic barriers. We used the bestfitting model to (i) determine whether migration rates are higher over sloped terrain than flat terrain; (ii) predict probable movement corridors; (iii) predict which populations are connected by migration; and (iv) investigate how anthropogenic barriers and translocated populations have affected landscape connectivity. 3. Migration models were correlated most strongly with migration when areas of at least 10% slope had 1/10th the cost of areas of lower slope; thus, gene flow occurred over longer distances when 'escape terrain' was available. Optimal parameter values were consistent across two measures of gene flow and three methods for defining population polygons. 4. Anthropogenic barriers disrupted numerous corridors predicted to be high-use dispersal routes, indicating priority areas for mitigation. However, population translocations have restored high-use dispersal routes in several other areas. Known intermountain movements of bighorn sheep were largely consistent with predicted corridors. 5. Synthesis and applications. Population genetic data provided sufficient resolution to infer how landscape features influenced the behaviour of dispersing desert bighorn sheep. Anthropogenic barriers that block high-use dispersal corridors should be mitigated, but population translocations may help maintain connectivity. We conclude that developing least-cost models from similar empirical data could significantly improve the utility of these tools.

To develop effective management strategies for the recovery of threatened and endangered species, it is critical to identify those vital rates (survival and reproductive parameters) responsible for poor population performance and those whose increase will most efficiently change a population's trajectory. In actual application, however, approaches identifying key vital rates are often limited by inadequate demographic data, by unrealistic assumptions of asymptotic population dynamics, and of equal, infinitesimal changes in mean vital rates. We evaluated the consequences of these limitations in an analysis of vital rates most important in the dynamics of federally endangered Sierra Nevada bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis sierrae). Based on data collected from 1980 to 2007, we estimated vital rates in three isolated populations, accounting for sampling error, variance, and covariance. We used analytical sensitivity analysis, life-stage simulation analysis, and a novel non-asymptotic simulation approach to (1) identify vital rates that should be targeted for subspecies recovery; (2) assess vital rate patterns of endangered bighorn sheep relative to other ungulate populations; (3) evaluate the performance of asymptotic vs. non-asymptotic models for meeting short-term management objectives; and (4) simulate management scenarios for boosting bighorn sheep population growth rates. We found wide spatial and temporal variation in bighorn sheep vital rates, causing rates to vary in their importance to different populations. As a result, Sierra Nevada bighorn sheep exhibited population-specific dynamics that did not follow theoretical expectations or those observed in other ungulates. Our study suggests that vital rate inferences from large, increasing, or healthy populations may not be applicable to those that are small, declining, or endangered. We also found that, while asymptotic approaches were generally applicable to bighorn sheep conservation planning; our non-asymptotic population models yielded unexpected results of importance to managers. Finally, extreme differences in the dynamics of individual bighorn sheep populations imply that effective management strategies for endangered species recovery may often need to be population-specific.

Metapopulations may be very sensitive to global climate change, particularly if temperature and precipitation change rapidly. We present an analysis of the role of climate and other factors in determining metapopulation structure based on presence and absence data. We compared existing and historical population distributions of desert bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) to determine whether regional climate patterns were correlated with local extinction. To examine all mountain ranges known to hold or to have held desert bighorn populations in California and score for variables describing climate, metapopulation dynamics, human impacts, and other environmental factors, we used a geographic information system (GIS) and paper maps. We used logistic regression and hierarchical partitioning to assess the relationship among these variables and the current status of each population (extinct or extant). Parameters related to climate-elevation, precipitation, and presence of dependable springs-were strongly correlated with population persistence in the twentieth century. Populations inhabiting lower, drier mountain ranges were more likely to go extinct. The presence of domestic sheep grazing allotments was negatively correlated with population persistence. We used conditional extinction probabilities generated by the logistic-regression model to rank native, naturally recolonized, and reintroduced populations by vulnerability to extinction under several climate-change scenarios. Thus risk of extinction in metapopulations can be evaluated for global-climate-change scenarios even when few demographic data are available.Efectos del Cambio Climático sobre la Persistencia de la Población de Borrego Cimarrón en California Resumen: Las metapoblaciones pueden ser muy sensibles al cambio climático global, especialmente si la temperatura y precipitación cambian rápidamente. Presentamos un análisis del papel del clima y otros factores en la determinación de la estructura de la metapoblación con base en la presencia y ausencia de datos. Comparamos las distribución actual e histórica de la población de borrego cimarrón del desierto (Ovis canadensis) para probar si los patrones climáticos regionales estaban correlacionados con la extinción local. Utilizamos un Sistema de Información Geográfica (SIG) y mapas para examinar todas las cordilleras que tienen o tuvieron poblaciones de borregos en California y calificar variables que describen el clima, la dinámica metapoblacional, los impactos humanos y otros factores ambientales. Utilizamos regresión logística y partición jerárquica para evaluar la relación entre estas variables y el estado actual de cada población (extinta o existente). Los parámetros relacionados con el clima (elevación, precipitación y presencia de manantiales confiables) estuvieron poderosamente correlacionados con la persistencia de la población en el siglo veinte. Las poblaciones en cordilleras bajas y más secas tuvieron mayor probabilidad de extinción. El pastoreo de borregos † Epps et al. Climate Change and Desert Bigh...

Mountain sheep (Ovis canadensis) are closely associated with steep, mountainous, open terrain. Their habitat consequently occurs in a naturally fragmented pattern, often with substantial expanses of unsuitable habitat between suitable patches; the sheep have been noted to be slow colonizers of vacant suitable habitat. As a result, resource managers have focused on (1) conserving “traditional” mountainous habitats, and (2) forced colonization through reintroduction. Telemetry studies in desert habitats have recorded more intermountain movement by desert sheep than was previously thought to OCCUT. Given the heretofore unrecognized vagility of mountain sheep, we argue that existing corridors of “nontraditional” habitat connecting mountain ranges be given adequate conservation consideration. Additionally, small areas of mountainous habitat that an? not permanently occupied but that may serve as “stepping stones” within such corridors must be recognized for their potential importance to relatively isolated populations of mountain sheep. We discuss the potential importance of such corridors to other large, vagile species.