Data used to construct receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and to calculate the area under the curve (ROC AUC) can be used to derive stratum-specific likelihood ratios (SSLRs) with their 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). The purpose of this study was to determine whether useful information can be obtained by adding SSLRs to the analysis of ROC curves. The authors analyzed four previously reported sets of data: 1) serum creatine kinase (SCK) for diagnosing acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in the coronary care unit (CCU); 2) SCK in the evaluation of chest pain in the emergency center (EC); 3) four predictor variables in the diagnosis of strep throat; and 4) the ordinal assessment of computed tomographic (CT) images. Use of SCK in the CCU produced four strata that had posttest probabilities that were highly discriminating, whereas SCK in the EC resulted in only two strata with limited discriminating ability. In either study the cutpoint at which the SSLR changed from less than to greater than 1.0 was higher than the reported upper normal for the test, thereby quantitating spectrum bias. The maximum number of strata of predictor signs and symptoms for strep throat was three rather than the five used in previous studies. With a larger sample size or pooling, four strata could probably be developed. With CT images, "definitely normal," "probably normal," and "questionable" were collapsed to one negative stratum. "Probably abnormal" became the true "questionable" stratum and "definitely abnormal" was the only positive stratum. The authors conclude that additional useful information is obtained by deriving stratum-specific likelihood ratios as part of the analysis of an ROC curve.

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Rapidly changing times in health care challenge both physicians and health care administrators to manage the paradox of providing orderly, high quality, and efficient care while bringing forth innovations to address present unmet problems and surprises that emerge. Health care has grown throughout the past several centuries through differentiation and integration, becoming a highly complex biological system with the hospital as the central attractive force--or "strange attractor"--during this century. The theoretical model of complex adaptive systems promises more effective strategic direction in addressing these chaotic times where the new strange attractor moves beyond the hospital.

BACKGROUND: Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels between 4.0 to 10.0 ng/ml have poor specificity in prostate cancer screening, leading to unnecessary biopsies.

The weight-based heparin nomogram was well accepted by clinicians at our institution and led to more aggressive heparin dosing and improvements in intermediate outcomes, without increasing bleeding. Mitigation of benefit is likely to occur when practice guidelines are moved from the realm of efficacy research into clinical practice. Therefore, the effectiveness of such measures requires monitoring.