The study of household finance is challenging because household behavior is difficult to measure, and households face constraints not captured by textbook models. Evidence on participation, diversification, and mortgage refinancing suggests that many households invest effectively, but a minority make significant mistakes. This minority appears to be poorer and less well educated than the majority of more successful investors. There is some evidence that households understand their own limitations and avoid financial strategies for which they feel unqualified. Some financial products involve a cross-subsidy from naive to sophisticated households, and this can inhibit welfare-improving financial innovation.
Japan has moved decisively toward "socialization of care" for the frail elderly by initiating public, mandatory long-term care insurance (LTCI) on 1 April 2000. The LTCI program covers both institutional and community-based caregiving. Everyone age forty and older pays premiums. Everyone age sixty-five and older is eligible for benefits based strictly on physical and mental disability, in six categories of need. Benefits are all services, with no cash allowance for family care, and are generous, covering 90 percent of need. Long-term costs seemed not to be a major consideration in program design. Consumers can choose the services and providers they want, including use of for-profit companies.
This paper explores the determinants of corporate failure and the pricing of financially distressed stocks whose failure probability, estimated from a dynamic logit model using accounting and market variables, is high. Since 1981, financially distressed stocks have delivered anomalously low returns. They have lower returns but much higher standard deviations, market betas, and loadings on value and small-cap risk factors than stocks with low failure risk. These patterns are more pronounced for stocks with possible informational or arbitrage-related frictions. They are inconsistent with the conjecture that the value and size effects are compensation for the risk of financial distress.
The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peerreviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications.
This paper explores the causes and consequences of cross-country variation in mortgage market structure. It draws on insights from several fields: urban economics, asset pricing, behavioral finance, financial intermediation, and macroeconomics. It discusses lessons from the credit boom, the challenges of mortgage modification in the aftermath of the boom, consumer financial protection, and alternative mortgage forms and funding models. The paper argues that the US has much to learn from mortgage finance in other countries, and specifically from the Danish implementation of the European covered bonds system.
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