* Correspondence and requests for materials should be addressed to r.smead@neu.edu. We would like to thank the editors at Nature Climate Change as well as two anonymous reviewers for helpful comments on a previous draft of this manuscript. RLS and RS oversaw the project. RS and PF developed the models and ran simulations. RLS and JB analyzed the status of current climate negotiations and policy. RLS, RS, PF, and JB jointly developed how to apply the model to climate negotiations, derived general recommendations, and wrote the paper.
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