Nearly all mass gathering events worldwide were banned at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, as they were suspected of presenting a considerable risk for the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. We investigated the risk of transmitting SARS-CoV-2 by droplets and aerosols during an experimental indoor mass gathering event under three different hygiene practices, and used the data in a simulation study to estimate the resulting burden of disease under conditions of controlled epidemics. Our results show that the mean number of measured direct contacts per visitor was nine persons and this can be reduced substantially by appropriate hygiene practices. A comparison of two versions of ventilation with different air exchange rates and different airflows found that the system which performed worst allowed a ten-fold increase in the number of individuals exposed to infectious aerosols. The overall burden of infections resulting from indoor mass gatherings depends largely on the quality of the ventilation system and the hygiene practices. Presuming an effective ventilation system, indoor mass gathering events with suitable hygiene practices have a very small, if any, effect on epidemic spread.
Background
The effect of contact reduction measures on infectious disease transmission can only be assessed indirectly and with considerable delay. However, individual social contact data and population mobility data can offer near real-time proxy information. The aim of this study is to compare social contact data and population mobility data with respect to their ability to reflect transmission dynamics during the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Germany.
Methods
We quantified the change in social contact patterns derived from self-reported contact survey data collected by the German COVIMOD study from 04/2020 to 06/2020 (compared to the pre-pandemic period from previous studies) and estimated the percentage mean reduction over time. We compared these results as well as the percentage mean reduction in population mobility data (corrected for pre-pandemic mobility) with and without the introduction of scaling factors and specific weights for different types of contacts and mobility to the relative reduction in transmission dynamics measured by changes in R values provided by the German Public Health Institute.
Results
We observed the largest reduction in social contacts (90%, compared to pre-pandemic data) in late April corresponding to the strictest contact reduction measures. Thereafter, the reduction in contacts dropped continuously to a minimum of 73% in late June. Relative reduction of infection dynamics derived from contact survey data underestimated the one based on reported R values in the time of strictest contact reduction measures but reflected it well thereafter. Relative reduction of infection dynamics derived from mobility data overestimated the one based on reported R values considerably throughout the study. After the introduction of a scaling factor, specific weights for different types of contacts and mobility reduced the mean absolute percentage error considerably; in all analyses, estimates based on contact data reflected measured R values better than those based on mobility.
Conclusions
Contact survey data reflected infection dynamics better than population mobility data, indicating that both data sources cover different dimensions of infection dynamics. The use of contact type-specific weights reduced the mean absolute percentage errors to less than 1%. Measuring the changes in mobility alone is not sufficient for understanding the changes in transmission dynamics triggered by public health measures.
Nearly all mass gathering events (MGEs) worldwide have been banned since the outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 as they are supposed to pose a considerable risk for transmission of COVID-19. We investigated transmission risk of SARS-CoV-2 by droplets and aerosols during an experimental indoor MGE (using N95 masks and contact tracing devices) and conducted a simulation study to estimate the resulting burden of disease under conditions of controlled epidemics. The number of exposed contacts was <10 for scenarios with hygiene concept and good ventilation, but substantially higher otherwise. Of subsequent cases, 0%-23% were attributable to MGEs. Overall, the expected additional effect of indoor MGEs on burden of infections is low if hygiene concepts are applied and adequate ventilation exists.
IMPORTANCE Children and adolescents with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) have an increased risk of injuries. Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder is often treated with medication, but the evidence regarding prevention of injuries is inconclusive. OBJECTIVE To determine via a case-only design whether the use of methylphenidate hydrochloride or atomoxetine hydrochloride reduces the risk of injuries among children and adolescents with ADHD.
DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS We used the German PharmacoepidemiologicalResearch Database, which includes records from about 17 million insurees (approximately 20% of the population) from 4 statutory health insurance providers in Germany to identify children aged 3 to 17 years with new diagnoses of ADHD in 2005 and 2006. We identified 37 650 children with ADHD based on inpatient and outpatient diagnostic codes (F90.0, F90.1, and F90.9) from the German modification of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, 10th Revision. Among them, we identified those with an inpatient injury diagnosis during follow-up until 2009. A total of 2128 children with any injury diagnosis at hospitalization, 821 of whom had a brain injury diagnosis, were included in the analysis. We applied the self-controlled case series design to control for time-invariant characteristics of the patients and time trends in the exposure. EXPOSURES Treatment with methylphenidate or atomoxetine based on prescription data. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Hospitalization because of any injury or brain injury according to the injury mortality diagnosis matrix. RESULTS Incidence rate ratios for the periods with medication compared with nonmedicated periods were 0.87 (95% CI, 0.74-1.02) for hospitalization with any injuries and 0.66 (95% CI, 0.48-0.91) for brain injuries only in the full sample. These estimates remained stable in sensitivity analyses restricting the sample to a narrower age range or to patients with a single hospitalization. There was no indication that medication prescriptions are increased after hospitalizations.CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE No significant risk reduction for hospitalizations with injury diagnoses was observed during periods of ADHD medication, but there was a preventive effect on the risk of brain injuries (34% risk reduction). The effects were controlled for time-invariant characteristics of the patients by the study design.
We identified regional clusters for poor dental health in a German city and showed that these clusters can be explained by sociodemographic characteristics. The findings support the need of targeted interventions and prevention measures in regions with less favourable sociodemographic characteristics.
In a large health insurance database in Germany, incidence of anogenital warts among 15- to 19-year-old females decreased from 316/100,000 person-years in 2007 to 242 in 2008 (23% reduction, P = 0.0001). The decrease started between the first and second quarter of 2007 (human papillomavirus vaccination was introduced in March 2007).
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