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The global severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic leading to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is straining hospitals. Judicious resource allocation is paramount but difficult due to the unpredictable disease course. Once hospitalized, discerning which patients may progress to critical disease would be valuable for resource planning. Medical records were reviewed for consecutive hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in a large healthcare system in Texas. The main outcome was progression to critical disease within 10 days from admission. Albumin trends from admission to 7 days were analyzed using mixed-effects models, and progression to critical disease was modeled by multivariable logistic regression of laboratory results. Risk models were evaluated in an independent group. Of 153 non-critical patients, 28 (18%) progressed to critical disease. The rate of decrease in mean baseline-corrected (Δ) albumin was −0.08 g/dL/day (95% CI −0.11 to −0.04; p<0.001) or four times faster, in those who progressed compared with those who did not progress. A model of Δ albumin combined with lymphocyte percentage predicting progression to critical disease was validated in 60 separate patients (sensitivity, 0.70; specificity, 0.74). ALLY (delta albumin and lymphocyte percentage) is a simple tool to identify patients with COVID-19 at higher risk of disease progression when: (1) a 0.9 g/dL or greater albumin drop from baseline within 5 days of admission or (2) baseline lymphocyte of ≤10% is observed. The ALLY tool identified >70% of hospitalized cases that progressed to critical COVID-19 disease. We recommend prospectively tracking albumin. This is a globally applicable tool for all healthcare systems.

Objectives Animal models have suggested that the combination of pretomanid with pyrazinamide and moxifloxacin (PaMZ) may shorten TB therapy duration to 3–4 months. Here, we tested that in the hollow-fibre system model of TB (HFS-TB). Methods A series of HFS-TB experiments were performed to compare the kill rates of the PaMZ regimen with the standard three-drug combination therapy. HFS-TB experiments were performed with bacilli in log-phase growth treated for 28 days, intracellular bacilli treated daily for 28 days and semi-dormant Mycobacterium tuberculosis treated with daily therapy for 56 days for sterilizing effect. Next, time-to-extinction equations were employed, followed by morphism transformation and Latin hypercube sampling, to determine the proportion of patients who achieved a time to extinction of 3, 4 or 6 months with each regimen. Results Using linear regression, the HFS-TB sterilizing effect rates of the PaMZ regimen versus the standard-therapy regimen during the 56 days were 0.18 (95% credible interval=0.13–0.23) versus 0.15 (95% credible interval=0.08–0.21) log10 cfu/mL/day, compared with 0.16 (95% credible interval=0.13–0.18) versus 0.11 (95% credible interval=0.09–0.13) log10 cfu/mL/day in the Phase II clinical trial, respectively. Using time-to-extinction and Latin hypercube sampling modelling, the expected percentages of patients in which the PaMZ regimen would achieve sterilization were 40.37% (95% credible interval=39.1–41.34) and 72.30% (95% credible interval=71.41–73.17) at 3 and 4 months duration of therapy, respectively, versus 93.67% (95% credible interval=93.18–94.13) at 6 months for standard therapy. Conclusions The kill rates of the PaMZ regimen were predicted to be insufficient to achieve cure in less than 6 months in most patients.

This article examines the effect of shared group membership on civilian attitudes regarding insurgent forces during an armed conflict. We rely on the original survey conducted in eight towns of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in May–June 2015. Based on the bivariate and multivariate analysis of the survey results, this article finds that a sense of shared identity with rebel forces at the start of the armed conflict in Donbas had a strong independent effect on civilian views of insurgents. Those respondents who identified themselves as residents of the region were more likely to attribute ideational motives to insurgents, report no knowledge of civilian victimization caused by rebel forces, and feel secure in their presence. By contrast, respondents identifying themselves as Ukrainian citizens were more likely to attribute material motives to insurgents, indicate their responsibility for attacks against civilians, and feel intimidated during direct encounters with rebels. These findings point to broader significance of identity cleavages in explaining the Donbas conflict.

The Molecular Microscope Diagnostic System (MMDx) analyzes RNA transcripts of transplanted heart tissue to differentiate among T cell-mediated rejection (TCMR), antibody-mediated rejection (AMR), injury, and healthy tissue. However, little is known about its performance in relation to other modalities in a real-world heart transplant population. We evaluated whether MMDx performs in agreement with other validated modalities. Two hundred and twenty-eight corresponding endomyocardial biopsies (EMBx) and MMDx specimens from 135 adult heart transplant patients were retrospectively reviewed with correlating donor-derived cell-free DNA (dd-cfDNA).Rejection was classified on EMBx in 29 specimens (TCMR ≥ 2R and/or AMR ≥ 1), on MMDx in 56 specimens, and in 74 values with dd-cfDNA ≥0.20%. Despite moderate agreement between EMBx and MMDx (84% agreement, Cohen's kappa, 0.48, p < .001), systematic differences were observed (McNemar's test, p < .001) where MMDx classified 32 of 37 discordant cases as rejection. MMDx and dd-cfDNA demonstrated slight agreement (72% agreement, Cohen's kappa, 0.39, p < .001); however, systematic differences were also apparent where MMDx classified 12 of 50 discordant specimens as rejection when dd-cfDNA was <0.20% (McNemar's test, p < .001).Our findings provide insight on the performance of MMDx relative to other modalities in a heart transplant cohort and have implications on the surveillance and workup of allograft rejection in heart transplantation.

Donor-derived cell free DNA (dd-cfDNA) has rapidly become part of rejection surveillance following orthotopic heart transplantation. However, some patients show elevated dd-cfDNA without clinical evidence of rejection. With the aim to provide a clinical description of this subpopulation, we retrospectively analyzed 35 cardiac transplant recipients at our center who experienced elevated (≥.20%) dd-cfDNA in the absence of clinical rejection, out of a total 106 recipients who had dd-cfDNA results available during the first year. The median time to first elevated dd-cfDNA level was 46 days, and the highest dd-cfDNA recorded within 1 year was .31% [inter-quartile range, .23-.45]. Twenty-two (63%) patients experienced infections (cytomegalovirus (CMV) or other), and 16 (46%) presented with de novo donor-specific antibodies. Cluster analysis revealed four distinct groups characterized by (a) subclinical rejection with 50% CMV (n = 16), (b) non-CMV infections and the longest time to first elevated dd-cfDNA (187 days) (n = 8), (c) right ventricular dysfunction (n = 6), and (d) women who showed the youngest median age (45 years) and highest median dd-cfDNA (.50%) (n = 5). Continued prospective analysis is needed to determine if these observations warrant changes in patient management to optimize the utilization of this vital noninvasive graft surveillance tool.

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