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Abstract. Load estimates are more informative than constituent concentrations alone, as they allow quantification of on-and off-site impacts of environmental processes concerning pollutants, nutrients and sediment, such as soil fertility loss, reservoir sedimentation and irrigation channel siltation. While statistical models used to predict constituent concentrations have been developed considerably over the last few years, measures of uncertainty on constituent loads are rarely reported. Loads are the product of two predictions, constituent concentration and discharge, integrated over a time period, which does not make it straightforward to produce a standard error or a confidence interval. In this paper, a linear mixed model is used to estimate sediment concentrations. A bootstrap method is then developed that accounts for the uncertainty in the concentration and discharge predictions, allowing temporal correlation in the constituent data, and can be used when data transformations are required. The method was tested for a small watershed in Northwest Vietnam for the period 2010-2011. The results showed that confidence intervals were asymmetric, with the highest uncertainty in the upper limit, and that a load of 6262 Mg year −1 had a 95 % confidence interval of (4331, 12 267) in 2010 and a load of 5543 Mg an interval of (3593, 8975) in 2011. Additionally, the approach demonstrated that direct estimates from the data were biased downwards compared to bootstrap median estimates. These results imply that constituent loads predicted from regression-type water quality models could frequently be underestimating sediment yields and their environmental impact.

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Composite agricultural systems with permanent maize cultivation in the uplands and irrigated rice in the valleys are very common in mountainous southeast Asia. The soil loss and fertility decline of the upland fields is well documented, but little is known about reallocation of these sediments within the landscape. In this study, a turbidity-based linear mixed model was used to quantify sediment inputs, from surface reservoir irrigation water and from direct overland flow, into a paddy area of 13 ha. Simultaneously, the sediment load exported from the rice fields was determined. Mid-infrared spectroscopy was applied to analyze sediment particle size. Our results showed that per year, 64 Mg ha −1 of sediments were imported into paddy fields, of which around 75 % were delivered by irrigation water and the remainder by direct overland flow during rainfall events. Overland flow contributed one-third of the received sandy fraction, while irrigated sediments were predominantly silty. Overall, rice fields were a net sink for sediments, trapping 28 Mg ha −1 a −1 or almost half of total sediment inputs. As paddy outflow consisted almost exclusively of silt-and clay-sized material, 24 Mg ha −1 a −1 of the trapped amount of sediment was estimated to be sandy. Under continued intensive upland maize cultivation, such a sustained input of coarse material could jeopardize paddy soil fertility, puddling capacity and ultimately food security of the inhabitants of these mountainous areas. Preventing direct overland flow from entering the paddy fields, however, could reduce sand inputs by up to 34 %.Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union.

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