The highly variable lag phase depends on the speed of action of an antimalarial and when in the periodic growth cycle it is administered.

Dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine is a recommended first-line artemisinin combination therapy for falciparum malaria. Piperaquine is also under consideration for other antimalarial combination therapies. The aim of this study was to develop a pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic model that could be used to optimize the use of piperaquine in new antimalarial combination therapies. The pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic model was developed using data from a previously reported dose-ranging study where 24 healthy volunteers were inoculated 1,800 blood-stage Plasmodium falciparum parasites. All volunteers received a single oral dose of piperaquine (960 mg, 640 mg, or 480 mg) on day 7 or day 8 after parasite inoculation in separate cohorts. Parasite densities were measured by qPCR, and piperaquine levels were measured in plasma samples. We used nonlinear mixed-effect modelling to characterize the pharmacokinetic properties of piperaquine and the parasite dynamics associated with piperaquine exposure. Pharmacokinetics of piperaquine was described by a three-compartment disposition model. A semi-mechanistic parasite dynamics model was developed to explain maturation of parasites, sequestration of mature parasites, synchronicity of infections, and multiplication of parasites, as seen in natural clinical infections with falciparum malaria. Piperaquine-associated parasite killing was estimated using a maximum effect (Emax) function. Treatment simulations (i.e. 3-day oral dosing of dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine) indicated that to be able to combat multidrug resistant infections, an ideal additional drug in a new antimalarial triple-combination therapy should have a parasite reduction ratio of ≥102 per life cycle (38.8 h) with a duration of action of ≥ 2 weeks. The semi-mechanistic pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic model described here offers the potential to be a valuable tool to assess and optimize current and new antimalarial drug combinations therapies containing piperaquine, and the impact of these therapies on killing multidrug resistant infections.