The Oahu Elepaio (Chasiempis ibidis) is an endangered forest bird endemic to the Hawaiian island of Oahu. The two most serious threats to the Oahu Elepaio are nest predation by nonnative black rats (Rattus rattus) and avian pox (Avipoxvirus spp.), a disease carried by nonnative mosquitoes. The Oahu Elepaio is conservation reliant because its continued existence depends on rat control. We used 27 years of data from 1995 to 2021 on pox prevalence, nest success, and fecundity with versus without rat control to reexamine the severity of these threats. Prevalence of avian pox declined over time. From 1995 to 2004, pox prevalence averaged 21% ± 4% per year and was positively related to annual rainfall. From 2005 to 2021, pox prevalence was only 2% ± 0.1% and despite several wet years there was no relationship with rainfall. The Oahu Elepaio appears to have evolved resistance to the pox variant currently in Hawaii. Elepaio nest success was higher with rat control (58% ± 1%) than without rat control (42% ± 6%). Nest success did not differ significantly between native tree species (52% ± 6%) and nonnative tree species (58% ± 6%) or between fruiting tree species (58% ± 1%) and nonfruiting species (61% ± 6%). Elepaio annual fecundity was higher with rat control (0.78 ± 0.02) than without rat control (0.48 ± 0.04) and varied among sites and years. The two primary threats to the species have been ameliorated through a combination of effective management and natural adaptation. The species' status should continue to improve if management is maintained, and someday, if patterns of natural adaptation continue, it could break free from conservation reliance.
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