Context Clinicians have observed various patterns of functional decline at the end of life, but few empirical data have tested these patterns in large populations. Objective To determine if functional decline differs among 4 types of illness trajectories: sudden death, cancer death, death from organ failure, and frailty. Design, Setting, and Participants Cohort analysis of data from 4 US regions in the prospective, longitudinal Established Populations for Epidemiologic Studies of the Elderly (EPESE) study. Of the 14456 participants aged 65 years or older who provided interviews at baseline (1981-1987), 4871 died during the first 6 years of follow-up; 4190 (86%) of these provided interviews within 1 year before dying. These decedents were evenly distributed in 12 cohorts based on the number of months between the final interview and death. Main Outcome Measures Self-or proxy-reported physical function (performance of 7 activities of daily living [ADLs]) within 1 year prior to death; predicted ADL dependency prior to death. Results Mean function declined across the 12 cohorts, simulating individual decline in the final year of life. Sudden death decedents were highly functional even in the last month before death (mean [95% confidence interval {CI}] numbers of ADL dependencies: 0.69 [0.19-1.19] at 12 months before death vs 1.22 [0.59-1.85] at the final month of life, P=.20); cancer decedents were highly functional early in their final year but markedly more disabled 3 months prior to death (0.77 [0.30-1.24] vs 4.09 [3.37-4.81], PϽ.001); organ failure decedents experienced a fluctuating pattern of decline, with substantially poorer function during the last 3 months before death (2.10 [1.49-2.70] vs 3.66 [2.94-4.38], PϽ.001); and frail decedents were relatively more disabled in the final year and especially dependent during the last month (2.92 [2.24-3.60] vs 5.84 [5.33-6.35], PϽ.001). After controlling for age, sex, race, education, marital status, interval between final interview and death, and other demographic differences, frail decedents were more than 8 times more likely than sudden death decedents to be ADL dependent (OR, 8.32 [95% CI, 6.46-10.73); cancer decedents, one and a half times more likely (OR, 1.57 [95% CI, 1.25-1.96]); and organ failure decedents, 3 times more likely (OR, 3.00 [95% CI, 2.39-3.77]). Conclusions Trajectories of functional decline at the end of life are quite variable. Differentiating among expected trajectories and related needs would help shape tailored strategies and better programs of care prior to death.

Context.-Previous studies have documented that cancer patients tend to overestimate the probability of long-term survival. If patient preferences about the trade-offs between the risks and benefits associated with alternative treatment strategies are based on inaccurate perceptions of prognosis, then treatment choices may not reflect each patient's true values.Objective.-To test the hypothesis that among terminally ill cancer patients an accurate understanding of prognosis is associated with a preference for therapy that focuses on comfort over attempts at life extension.Design.-Prospective cohort study.Setting.-Five teaching hospitals in the United States.Patients.-A total of 917 adults hospitalized with stage III or IV non-small cell lung cancer or colon cancer metastatic to liver in phases 1 and 2 of the Study to Understand Prognoses and Preferences for Outcomes and Risks of Treatments (SUPPORT).Main Outcome Measures.-Proportion of patients favoring life-extending therapy over therapy focusing on relief of pain and discomfort, patient and physician estimates of the probability of 6-month survival, and actual 6-month survival.Results.-Patients who thought they were going to live for at least 6 months were more likely (odds ratio [OR], 2.6; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.8-3.7) to favor lifeextending therapy over comfort care compared with patients who thought there was at least a 10% chance that they would not live 6 months. This OR was highest (8.5; 95% CI, 3.0-24.0) among patients who estimated their 6-month survival probability at greater than 90% but whose physicians estimated it at 10% or less. Patients overestimated their chances of surviving 6 months, while physicians estimated prognosis quite accurately. Patients who preferred life-extending therapy were more likely to undergo aggressive treatment, but controlling for known prognostic factors, their 6-month survival was no better.Conclusions.-Patients with metastatic colon and lung cancer overestimate their survival probabilities and these estimates may influence their preferences about medical therapies.

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This paper profiles Medicare beneficiaries' costs for care in the last year of life. About one-quarter of Medicare outlays are for the last year of life, unchanged from twenty years ago. Costs reflect care for multiple severe illnesses typically present near death. Thirty-eight percent of beneficiaries have some nursing home stay in the year of their death; hospice is now used by half of Medicare cancer decedents and 19 percent of Medicare decedents overall. African Americans have much higher end-of-life costs than others have, an unexpected finding in light of their generally lower health care spending.

Strong to moderate evidence supports interventions to improve important aspects of end-of-life care. Future research should quantify these effects and address the generalizability of insights across the conditions and settings of the last part of life. Many critical issues lack high-quality evidence.

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Most elderly and seriously ill patients died in acute care hospitals. Pain and other symptoms were commonplace and troubling to patients. Family members believed that patients preferred comfort, but life-sustaining treatments were often used. These findings indicate important opportunities to improve the care of dying patients.

In these seriously ill patients, ADs did not substantially enhance physician-patient communication or decision-making about resuscitation. This lack of effect was not altered by the PSDA or by the enhanced efforts in SUPPORT, although these interventions each substantially increased documentation of existing ADs. Current practice patterns indicate that increasing the frequency of ADs is unlikely to be a substantial element in improving the care of seriously ill patients. Future work to improve decision-making should focus upon improving the current pattern of practice through better communication and more comprehensive advance care planning.