Arguably one of the most important effects of climate change is the potential impact on human health. While this is likely to take many forms, the implications for future transmission of vector-borne diseases (VBDs), given their ongoing contribution to global disease burden, are both extremely important and highly uncertain. In part, this is owing not only to data limitations and methodological challenges when integrating climate-driven VBD models and climate change projections, but also, perhaps most crucially, to the multitude of epidemiological, ecological and socio-economic factors that drive VBD transmission, and this complexity has generated considerable debate over the past 10–15 years. In this review, we seek to elucidate current knowledge around this topic, identify key themes and uncertainties, evaluate ongoing challenges and open research questions and, crucially, offer some solutions for the field. Although many of these challenges are ubiquitous across multiple VBDs, more specific issues also arise in different vector–pathogen systems.

Aedes albopictus is a vector of dengue and chikungunya viruses in the field, along with around 24 additional arboviruses under laboratory conditions. As an invasive mosquito species, Ae. albopictus has been expanding in geographical range over the past 20 years, although the poleward extent of mosquito populations is limited by winter temperatures. Nonetheless, population densities depend on environmental conditions and since global climate change projections indicate increasing temperatures and altered patterns of rainfall, geographic distributions of previously tropical mosquito species may change. Although mathematical models can provide explanatory insight into observed patterns of disease prevalence in terms of epidemiological and entomological processes, understanding how environmental variables affect transmission is possible only with reliable model parameterisation, which, in turn, is obtained only through a thorough understanding of the relationship between mosquito biology and environmental variables. Thus, in order to assess the impact of climate change on mosquito population distribution and regions threatened by vector-borne disease, a detailed understanding (through a synthesis of current knowledge) of the relationship between climate, mosquito biology, and disease transmission is required, but this process has not yet been undertaken for Ae. albopictus. In this review, the impact of temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity on Ae. albopictus development and survival are considered. Existing Ae. albopictus populations across Europe are mapped with current climatic conditions, considering whether estimates of climatic cutoffs for Ae. albopictus are accurate, and suggesting that environmental thresholds must be calibrated according to the scale and resolution of climate model outputs and mosquito presence data.

It is well documented that the density of Plasmodium in its vertebrate host modulates the physiological response induced; this in turn regulates parasite survival and transmission. It is less clear that parasite density in the mosquito regulates survival and transmission of this important pathogen. Numerous studies have described conversion rates of Plasmodium from one life stage to the next within the mosquito, yet few have considered that these rates might vary with parasite density. Here we establish infections with defined numbers of the rodent malaria parasite Plasmodium berghei to examine how parasite density at each stage of development (gametocytes; ookinetes; oocysts and sporozoites) influences development to the ensuing stage in Anopheles stephensi, and thus the delivery of infectious sporozoites to the vertebrate host. We show that every developmental transition exhibits strong density dependence, with numbers of the ensuing stages saturating at high density. We further show that when fed ookinetes at very low densities, oocyst development is facilitated by increasing ookinete number (i.e., the efficiency of ookinete–oocyst transformation follows a sigmoid relationship). We discuss how observations on this model system generate important hypotheses for the understanding of malaria biology, and how these might guide the rational analysis of interventions against the transmission of the malaria parasites of humans by their diverse vector species.

Climate change can influence the transmission of vector-borne diseases (VBDs) through altering the habitat suitability of insect vectors. Here we present global climate model simulations and evaluate the associated uncertainties in view of the main meteorological factors that may affect the distribution of the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus), which can transmit pathogens that cause chikungunya, dengue fever, yellow fever and various encephalitides. Using a general circulation model at 50 km horizontal resolution to simulate mosquito survival variables including temperature, precipitation and relative humidity, we present both global and regional projections of the habitat suitability up to the middle of the twenty-first century. The model resolution of 50 km allows evaluation against previous projections for Europe and provides a basis for comparative analyses with other regions. Model uncertainties and performance are addressed in light of the recent CMIP5 ensemble climate model simulations for the RCP8.5 concentration pathway and using meteorological re-analysis data (ERA-Interim/ECMWF) for the recent past. Uncertainty ranges associated with the thresholds of meteorological variables that may affect the distribution of Ae. albopictus are diagnosed using fuzzy-logic methodology, notably to assess the influence of selected meteorological criteria and combinations of criteria that influence mosquito habitat suitability. From the climate projections for 2050, and adopting a habitat suitability index larger than 70%, we estimate that approximately 2.4 billion individuals in a land area of nearly 20 million km2 will potentially be exposed to Ae. albopictus. The synthesis of fuzzy-logic based on mosquito biology and climate change analysis provides new insights into the regional and global spreading of VBDs to support disease control and policy making.

Background Mosquito-borne viral diseases cause significant burden in much of the developing world. Although host-virus interactions have been studied extensively in the vertebrate host, little is known about mosquito responses to viral infection. In contrast to mosquitoes of the Aedes and Culex genera, Anopheles gambiae , the principal vector of human malaria, naturally transmits very few arboviruses, the most important of which is O'nyong-nyong virus (ONNV). Here we have investigated the A. gambiae immune response to systemic ONNV infection using forward and reverse genetic approaches. Methodology/Principal Findings We have used DNA microarrays to profile the transcriptional response of A. gambiae inoculated with ONNV and investigate the antiviral function of candidate genes through RNAi gene silencing assays. Our results demonstrate that A. gambiae responses to systemic viral infection involve genes covering all aspects of innate immunity including pathogen recognition, modulation of immune signalling, complement-mediated lysis/opsonisation and other immune effector mechanisms. Patterns of transcriptional regulation and co-infections of A. gambiae with ONNV and the rodent malaria parasite Plasmodium berghei suggest that hemolymph immune responses to viral infection are diverted away from melanisation. We show that four viral responsive genes encoding two putative recognition receptors, a galectin and an MD2-like receptor, and two effector lysozymes, function in limiting viral load. Conclusions/Significance This study is the first step in elucidating the antiviral mechanisms of A. gambiae mosquitoes, and has revealed interesting differences between A. gambiae and other invertebrates. Our data suggest that mechanisms employed by A. gambiae are distinct from described invertebrate antiviral immunity to date, and involve the complement-like branch of the humoral immune response, supressing the melanisation response that is prominent in anti-parasitic immunity. The antiviral immune response in A. gambiae is thus composed of some key conserved mechanisms to target viral infection such as RNAi but includes other diverse and possibly species-specific mechanisms.

The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, is a highly invasive vector species. It is a proven vector of dengue and chikungunya viruses, with the potential to host a further 24 arboviruses. It has recently expanded its geographical range, threatening many countries in the Middle East, Mediterranean, Europe and North America. Here, we investigate the theoretical limitations of its range expansion by developing an environmentally-driven mathematical model of its population dynamics. We focus on the temperate strain of Ae. albopictus and compile a comprehensive literature-based database of physiological parameters. As a novel approach, we link its population dynamics to globally-available environmental datasets by performing inference on all parameters. We adopt a Bayesian approach using experimental data as prior knowledge and the surveillance dataset of Emilia-Romagna, Italy, as evidence. The model accounts for temperature, precipitation, human population density and photoperiod as the main environmental drivers, and, in addition, incorporates the mechanism of diapause and a simple breeding site model. The model demonstrates high predictive skill over the reference region and beyond, confirming most of the current reports of vector presence in Europe. One of the main hypotheses derived from the model is the survival of Ae. albopictus populations through harsh winter conditions. The model, constrained by the environmental datasets, requires that either diapausing eggs or adult vectors have increased cold resistance. The model also suggests that temperature and photoperiod control diapause initiation and termination differentially. We demonstrate that it is possible to account for unobserved properties and constraints, such as differences between laboratory and field conditions, to derive reliable inferences on the environmental dependence of Ae. albopictus populations.

This theme issue arose out of our perception that while it is widely recognized that an important impact of climate change on human health is likely to be via effects on vector-borne disease (VBD) transmission, the complexity of the biological and non-biological susceptibility modifying pathways by which such effects arise and combine to influence transmission is less well understood. This has made reliable appraisals of the potential effects of climate change and variability on VBDs complicated and represents a serious problem in developing more robust tools to assess the risk of climate change affecting VBDs in populations residing under different social and geographic contexts. This issue thus aims to provide not only an up-to-date synthesis of current knowledge of, and key research in, the impact of various individual components of climate change (biological, nonbiological, evolutionary and economic factors), but also, crucially, to reveal and highlight the need (and potential means) to address the effects of multiple factor interactions, nonlinearities and human reflexivity if we are to develop and establish a more rigorous agenda for future research, including the provision of useful informatics for informed public health policy-making, in this important area of climate change studies.This issue is timely for several reasons. First, VBDs, such as malaria, Chagas disease and helminth infections, undoubtedly have a major impact on human health within the developing world. Second, diseases discussed in this issue also include those that are emerging and resurgent, such as dengue, West Nile disease and chikungunya, which are increasing in prevalence and geographical distribution. Key disease vectors are also currently spreading into temperate regions, including Europe, creating new vulnerable populations should disease importation occur. Establishing tools to help map vectors and/or disease transmission, determine community vulnerability and risk, and plan control strategies are therefore of vital importance for tackling both these established and emerging VBDs. This includes the key importance of addressing scientific accuracy, as projections that do not take into account the influence of uncertainties in the complex, interacting effects of vector populations, vector-pathogen interactions, climate and socioeconomic factors on VBDs are likely to be limited in their usefulness to policy-makers. We believe that bringing together experts at this juncture from different aspects of this multi-disciplinary topic to provide a synthesis of current research and establish agendas for future research will help shape the future of this growing field of study, leading to improved reliability and robustness of projections for future global and regional VBD burden in a changing climate. In addition, this theme issue highlights and emphasizes the need to translate research into outputs for use by stakeholders in planning and improving vector and disease control strategies for pathogens that affect millions of people worldwide...

The hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) assay is the most commonly used serology assay to detect antibodies from influenza vaccination or influenza virus infection. This assay has been used for decades but requires improved standardization of procedures to provide meaningful data.