In this study, criminal gang membership is treated as an infection that spreads through a community by interactions among gang members and the population. A mathematical model consisting of a system of coupled, nonlinear ordinary differential equations is used to describe this spread and to suggest control mechanisms to minimize this infection. The analysis shows the existence of three equilibrium states -two of which contain no gang members. When parameters such as recruitment, conviction and recidivism rates and longer jail sentences are varied, the greatest reduction occurs by changing the parameters in combination. A bifurcation analysis shows transcritical bifurcations and no hopf bifurcations.
Social media plays an important role in alerting and educating the public during disease outbreaks. By increasing awareness of the disease and its prevention, it can lead to a modification of behaviour which then affects contact/incidence rates. Social media data may also be used when formulating, developing and parameterising models. As mobile technology continues to evolve and proliferate, social media is expected to occupy an increasingly prominent role in the field of infectious disease modelling to improve their predictive power. This article presents a review of existing models incorporating media in general and highlights opportunities for social media to enhance traditional compartmental models so as to make the best use of this resource in controlling the spread of disease.
Mathematical models offer crucial insights into the transmission dynamics and control of infectious diseases. These models have also been applied to investigate a variety of 'contagious' social phenomena like crime, opinions, addiction and fanaticism. We review the use and adaptation of models from epidemiology (compartmental models) to investigate the transmission dynamics of different social contagion processes-all of which are spread by contact only.
A modified predator–prey model with transmissible disease in both the predator and prey species is proposed and analysed, with infected prey being more vulnerable to predation and infected predators hunting at a reduced rate. Here, the predators are the police and the prey the gang members. In this system, we examine whether police control of gangs is possible. The system is analysed with the help of stability analyses and numerical simulations. The system has five steady states—four of which involve no core gang members and one in which all the populations coexist. Thresholds are identified which determine when the predator and prey populations survive and when the disease remains endemic. For parameter values where the spread of disease among the police officers is greater than the death of the police officers, the diseased predator population survives, when it would otherwise become extinct.
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