Understanding long‐term, ecosystem‐level impacts of climate change is challenging because experimental research frequently focuses on short‐term, individual‐level impacts in isolation. We address this shortcoming first through an interdisciplinary ensemble of novel experimental techniques to investigate the impacts of 14‐month exposure to ocean acidification and warming (OAW) on the physiology, activity, predatory behaviour and susceptibility to predation of an important marine gastropod (Nucella lapillus). We simultaneously estimated the potential impacts of these global drivers on N. lapillus population dynamics and dispersal parameters. We then used these data to parameterize a dynamic bioclimatic envelope model, to investigate the consequences of OAW on the distribution of the species in the wider NE Atlantic region by 2100. The model accounts also for changes in the distribution of resources, suitable habitat and environment simulated by finely resolved biogeochemical models, under three IPCC global emissions scenarios. The experiments showed that temperature had the greatest impact on individual‐level responses, while acidification had a similarly important role in the mediation of predatory behaviour and susceptibility to predators. Changes in Nucella predatory behaviour appeared to serve as a strategy to mitigate individual‐level impacts of acidification, but the development of this response may be limited in the presence of predators. The model projected significant large‐scale changes in the distribution of Nucella by the year 2100 that were exacerbated by rising greenhouse gas emissions. These changes were spatially heterogeneous, as the degree of impact of OAW on the combination of responses considered by the model varied depending on local‐environmental conditions and resource availability. Such changes in macro‐scale distributions cannot be predicted by investigating individual‐level impacts in isolation, or by considering climate stressors separately. Scaling up the results of experimental climate change research requires approaches that account for long‐term, multiscale responses to multiple stressors, in an ecosystem context.

Macroalgae drive the largest CO2 flux fixed globally by marine macrophytes. Most of the resulting biomass is exported through the coastal ocean as detritus and yet almost no field measurements have verified its potential net sequestration in marine sediments. This gap limits the scope for the inclusion of macroalgae within blue carbon schemes that support ocean carbon sequestration globally, and the understanding of the role their carbon plays within distal food webs. Here, we pursued three lines of evidence (eDNA sequencing, Bayesian Stable Isotope Mixing Modeling, and benthic‐pelagic process measurements) to generate needed, novel data addressing this gap. To this end, a 13‐month study was undertaken at a deep coastal sedimentary site in the English Channel, and the surrounding shoreline of Plymouth, UK. The eDNA sequencing indicated that detritus from most macroalgae in surrounding shores occurs within deep, coastal sediments, with detritus supply reflecting the seasonal ecology of individual species. Bayesian stable isotope mixing modeling [C and N] highlighted its vital role in supporting the deep coastal benthic food web (22–36% of diets), especially when other resources are seasonally low. The magnitude of detritus uptake within the food web and sediments varies seasonally, with an average net sedimentary organic macroalgal carbon sequestration of 8.75 g C·m−2·yr−1. The average net sequestration of particulate organic carbon in sediments is 58.74 g C·m−2·yr−1, the two rates corresponding to 4–5% and 26–37% of those associated with mangroves, salt marshes, and seagrass beds, systems more readily identified as blue carbon habitats. These novel data provide important first estimates that help to contextualize the importance of macroalgal‐sedimentary connectivity for deep coastal food webs, and measured fluxes help constrain its role within global blue carbon that can support policy development. At a time when climate change mitigation is at the foreground of environmental policy development, embracing the full potential of the ocean in supporting climate regulation via CO2 sequestration is a necessity.

Seaweed and seagrass communities in the northeast Atlantic have been profoundly impacted by humans, and the rate of change is accelerating rapidly due to runaway CO2 emissions and mounting pressures on coastlines associated with human population growth and increased consumption of finite resources. Here, we predict how rapid warming and acidification are likely to affect benthic flora and coastal ecosystems of the northeast Atlantic in this century, based on global evidence from the literature as interpreted by the collective knowledge of the authorship. We predict that warming will kill off kelp forests in the south and that ocean acidification will remove maerl habitat in the north. Seagrasses will proliferate, and associated epiphytes switch from calcified algae to diatoms and filamentous species. Invasive species will thrive in niches liberated by loss of native species and spread via exponential development of artificial marine structures. Combined impacts of seawater warming, ocean acidification, and increased storminess may replace structurally diverse seaweed canopies, with associated calcified and noncalcified flora, with simple habitats dominated by noncalcified, turf-forming seaweeds.

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Highlights:  Seasonal phosphorus uptake and dissolved organic release examined in the Central Celtic Sea  Uptake highest in spring bloom, with biomass-normalised uptake equal in spring and summer  Release high in November and late spring, with efficient P-retention in summer  Strong phytoplankton influence on spring P-uptake, whilst bacteria influential in summer  Relatively C-rich uptake in November and late April, strongly P-rich in summer Abstract The seasonal cycle of resource availability in shelf seas has a strong selective pressure on phytoplankton diversity and the biogeochemical cycling of key elements, such as carbon (C) and phosphorus (P). Shifts in carbon consumption relative to P availability, via changes in cellular stoichiometry for example, can lead to an apparent 'excess' of carbon production. We made measurements of inorganic P (P i) uptake, in parallel to C-fixation, by plankton communities in the Central Celtic Sea (NW European Shelf) in spring (April 2015), summer (July 2015) and fall (November 2014). Short-term (<6 h) P i-uptake coupled with dissolved organic phosphorus (DOP) release, in parallel to net (24 h) primary production (NPP), were all measured across an irradiance gradient designed to typify vertically and seasonally varying light conditions. Rates of P i-uptake were highest during spring and lowest in light-limited fall conditions, although biomass-normalised P i-uptake was similar in spring and summer. The release of DOP was highest in November and declined to low levels in July, indicative of efficient utilization and recycling of the low levels of P i available. Examination of turnover times of the different particulate pools, including phytoplankton and bacteria, indicated a differing seasonal influence of autotrophs and heterotrophs in P-dynamics, with summer conditions associated with a strong bacterial influence and early spring with fast growing phytoplankton. These seasonal changes in plankton composition, coupled with changes in resource availability (P i , light) resulted in seasonal changes in the stoichiometry of NPP to P i-uptake (C:P ratio); from relatively C-rich uptake in November and late April, to P-rich uptake in early April and July. Overall these results highlight how the entire plankton community, both autotrophs and heterotrophs, influence the relative uptake of C and P and that any excess C-consumption relative to the P-rich uptake must be balanced by C-rich process such as the heterotrophic remineralisation and/or consumption of organic material.