Abstract. It is hypothesized that more accurate prediction and warning of natural hazards, such as of the impacts of severe weather mediated through various components of the environment, require a more integrated Earth System approach to forecasting. This hypothesis can be explored using regional coupled prediction systems, in which the known interactions and feedbacks between different physical and biogeochemical components of the environment across sky, sea and land can be simulated. Such systems are becoming increasingly common research tools. This paper describes the development of the UKC2 regional coupled research system, which has been delivered under the UK Environmental Prediction Prototype project. This provides the first implementation of an atmosphere-land-ocean-wave modelling system focussed on the United Kingdom and surrounding seas at km-scale resolution. The UKC2 coupled system incorporates models of the atmosphere (Met Office Unified Model), land surface with river routing (JULES), shelf-sea ocean (NEMO) and ocean waves (WAVEWATCH III). These components are coupled, via OASIS3-MCT libraries, at unprecedentedly high resolution across the UK within a north-western European regional domain. A research framework has been established to explore the representation of feedback processes in coupled and uncoupled modes, providing a new research tool for UK environmental science. This paper documents the technical design and implementation of UKC2, along with the associated evaluation framework. An analysis of new results comparing the output of the coupled UKC2 system with relevant forced control simulations for six contrasting case studies of 5-day duration is presented. Results demonstrate that performance can be achieved with the UKC2 system that is at least comparable to its component control simulations. For some cases, improvements in air temperature, sea surface temperature, wind speed, significant wave height and mean wave period highlight the potential benefits of coupling between environmental model components. Results also illustrate that the coupling itself is not sufficient to address all known model issues. Priorities for future development of the UK Environmental Prediction framework and component systems are discussed.

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Abstract. This paper describes an updated configuration of the regional coupled research system, termed UKC3, developed and evaluated under the UK Environmental Prediction collaboration. This represents a further step towards a vision of simulating the numerous interactions and feedbacks between different physical and biogeochemical components of the environment across sky, sea and land using more integrated regional coupled prediction systems at kilometre-scale resolution. The UKC3 coupled system incorporates models of the atmosphere (Met Office Unified Model), land surface with river routing (JULES), shelf-sea ocean (NEMO) and ocean surface waves (WAVEWATCH III®), coupled together using OASIS3-MCT libraries. The major update introduced since the UKC2 configuration is an explicit representation of wave–ocean feedbacks through introduction of wave-to-ocean coupling. Ocean model results demonstrate that wave coupling, in particular representing the wave-modified surface drag, has a small but positive improvement on the agreement between simulated sea surface temperatures and in situ observations, relative to simulations without wave feedbacks. Other incremental developments to the coupled modelling capability introduced since the UKC2 configuration are also detailed. Coupled regional prediction systems are of interest for applications across a range of timescales, from hours to decades ahead. The first results from four simulation experiments, each of the order of 1 month in duration, are analysed and discussed in the context of characterizing the potential benefits of coupled prediction on forecast skill. Results across atmosphere, ocean and wave components are shown to be stable over time periods of weeks. The coupled approach shows notable improvements in surface temperature, wave state (in near-coastal regions) and wind speed over the sea, whereas the prediction quality of other quantities shows no significant improvement or degradation relative to the equivalent uncoupled control simulations.

Abstract. This paper describes an updated configuration of the regional coupled research system, termed UKC3, developed and evaluated under the UK Environmental Prediction collaboration. This represents a further step towards a vision of simulating the numerous interactions and feedbacks between different physical and biogeochemical components of the environment across sky, sea and land using more integrated regional coupled prediction systems at km-scale resolution. The UKC3 coupled system incorporates models of the atmosphere (Met Office Unified Model), land surface with river routing (JULES), shelf-sea ocean (NEMO) and ocean surface waves (WAVEWATCH III), coupled together using OASIS3-MCT libraries. The major update introduced since the UKC2 configuration is an explicit representation of wave processes in the ocean and their feedbacks through wave-to-ocean coupling. Ocean model results demonstrate that wave coupling, in particular representing the wave modified surface drag, has a small but positive improvement on the agreement between simulated sea surface temperatures and in situ observations, relative to simulations without wave feedbacks. Other incremental developments to the coupled modelling capability introduced since the UKC2 configuration are also detailed. Coupled regional prediction systems are of interest for applications across a range of timescales, from hours to decades ahead. The first results of simulations run over extended periods, covering four experiments each of order one month in duration are therefore analysed and discussed in the context of further characterising the potential benefits of coupled prediction on forecast skill, and on the stability of such systems over longer time periods. Results across atmosphere, ocean and wave components are shown to be of at least comparable skill to the equivalent uncoupled control simulations, with notable improvements demonstrated in surface temperature and wave state predictions in some near-coastal regions, and in wind speeds over the sea.

Abstract. It is hypothesised that more accurate prediction and warning of natural hazards, such as of the impacts of severe weather mediated through various components of the environment, requires a more integrated Earth System approach to forecasting. This hypothesis can be explored using regional coupled prediction systems, in which the known interactions and feedbacks between different physical and biogeochemical components of the environment across sky, sea and land can be simulated. Such systems are becoming increasingly common research tools. This paper describes the development of the UKC2 regional coupled research system, which has been delivered under the UK Environmental Prediction Prototype project. This provides the first implementation of an atmosphere-land-ocean-wave modelling system focussed on the United Kingdom and surrounding seas at km-scale resolution. The UKC2 coupled system incorporates models of the atmosphere (Met Office Unified Model), land surface with river routing (JULES), shelf-sea ocean (NEMO) and ocean waves (WAVEWATCH III). These components are coupled, via OASIS3-MCT libraries, at unprecedentedly high resolution across the UK within a north-west European regional domain. A research framework has been established to explore the representation of feedback processes in coupled and uncoupled modes, providing a new research tool for UK environmental science. This paper documents the technical design and implementation of UKC2, along with the associated evaluation framework. An analysis of new results comparing the output of the coupled UKC2 system with relevant forced control simulations for 6 contrasting case studies of 5-day duration is presented. Results demonstrate that at least comparable performance can be achieved with the UKC2 system to its component control simulations. For some cases, improvements in air temperature, sea surface temperature, wind speed, significant wave height and peak wave period highlight the potential benefits of coupling between environmental model components. Results also illustrate that the coupling itself is not sufficient to address all known model issues. Priorities for future development of the UK Environmental Prediction framework and component systems are discussed.

di saBatino, JunXia dou, daniel r. dreW, John M. edWards, JoaChiM fallMann, krzysztof fortuniak, JeMMa gornall, toBias groneMeier, Christos h. halios, denise hertWig, kohin hirano, alBert a. M. holtslag, zhiWen luo, gerald Mills, Makoto nakayoshi, kathy Pain, k. heinke sChlünzen, stefan sMith, lionel soulhaC, gert-Jan steeneveld, ting sun, natalie e theeuWes, david thoMson, JaMes a. voogt, helen C. Ward, zheng-tong Xie, and Jian zhong W ith the majority of people experiencing weather in urban areas, it is critical to understand cities, weather, and climate impacts. Increasing climate extremes (e.g., heat stress, air pollution, flash flooding) combined with the density of people means it is essential that city infrastructure and operations can withstand high-impact weather. Thus, there is a huge opportunity to mitigate climate change effects and provide healthier environments through design and planning to reduce the background climate and urban effects. However, our understanding of the underlying urban atmospheric processes are primarily derived from studies of separate aspects, rather than the complete, human-environment system. Air quality modeling has not been widely integrated with aerosol feedbacks on local climate, while few city-greening scenarios have tested the impacts on boundary layer pollutant dispersion or the carbon cycle. Building design guidelines have been developed without incorporating the impact of waste heat on local temperatures, which, in turn, determines building performance. Integration of such feedbacks is imperative as they define, rather than just modify, urban climate.There is an urgent need to link processes that people experience at street level (human scale) to processes at neighborhood, city, and regional scales. As these scales have traditionally been the focus for specialists in different fields, few observation and model systems cross these scales. However, understanding the interactions between these scales is critical for the design of future parametrizations ES261OCTOBER 2017 AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY | and observation networks. Although models and observational methods are emerging that permit research into scale interactions [e.g., high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP), large-domain computational fluid dynamic (CFD) models, remote sensing, extensive sensor networks, vertical remote sensing], an integrated approach across methodologies is currently lacking.To tackle these scale interactions requires diverse skills from a wide range of research communities. This is a daunting challenge. However, improved understanding of urban atmospheric processes such as clouds and precipitation, heat transfer, and convection would enable improvements in urban system models to provide seamless hazard prediction at all time scales. Hence, an initial focus on the meteorological aspects of the research challenge may be a more manageable problem, even though the scope is still large. As such, it was identified that within the United Kingdom there is an urgent need to devel...

This study presents a numerical simulation assessing the effect of dynamical ocean–atmosphere coupling on the structure of the marine atmospheric boundary layer over the southern North Sea. Using a high‐resolution regional coupled ocean‐atmosphere prediction system, with a coupling frequency of 1 h, a diurnal variation of sea surface temperature simulated by the ocean model is applied to the atmosphere component. This results in a surface warming in the coupled compared to an atmosphere‐only run. Shallow convection initiated by heating of the lower atmosphere by a relatively warmer ocean surface leads local formation of low level clouds between 1300 h and 1700 h in the coupled run. The impact of these clouds in reflecting incoming solar radiation is demonstrated through a relative cooling of the sea surface temperature in the coupled simulation compared to an ocean‐only run forced by an atmosphere‐only run without representation of ocean‐atmosphere interactions.

Results from high resolution 7-km WRF regional climate model (RCM) simulations are used to analyse changes in the occurrence frequencies of heat waves, of precipitation extremes and of the duration of the winter time freezing period for highly populated urban areas in Central Europe. The projected climate change impact is assessed for 11 urban areas based on climate indices for a future period (2021-2050) compared to a reference period using the IPCC AR4 A1B Scenario as boundary conditions. These climate indices are calculated from daily maximum, minimum and mean temperatures as well as precipitation amounts. By this, the vulnerability of these areas to future climate conditions is to be investigated. The number of heat waves, as well as the number of single hot days, tropical nights and heavy precipitation events is projected to increase in the near future. In addition, the number of frost days is significantly decreased. Probability density functions of monthly mean summer time temperatures show an increase of the 95th percentile of about 1-3°C for the future compared with the reference period. The projected increase of cooling and decrease of heating degree days indicate the possible impact on urban energy consumption under future climate conditions.