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Wireless communications technologies have undergone rapid changes over the last thirty years from analog approaches to digital-based systems. These technologies have improved on many fronts including bandwidth, range, and power requirements.Development of new telecommunications technologies is critical. It requires many years of efforts. In order to be competitive, it is critical to establish a roadmap of future technologies. This paper presents a framework to characterize, assess and forecast the wireless communication technologies. A DEA-based methodology was used for predicting the state of the art in future wireless communications technologies. Literature ReviewThere are many techniques that can be used to develop technology forecasts. Linstone (1999) provides an overview of methods evolving over time. Other researchers including Ayres (1999), Martino (1999) and Porter (1999) also provide comprehensive treatments of many approaches. Technology forecasting can be done both qualitatively as well as quantitatively. Linstone (2003) and du Preez (2003) provide examples of qualitative approaches such as multiple perspectives and threat/opportunity analysis which help to dissect problems so that further analysis can be done with quantitative models. Fildes (2006) provides an excellent review of forecasting research and outlets for publications. De Gooijer et al. (2006) add to this research by focusing on time series forecasting. Meade et al.(2006) provide a similar in-depth analysis for innovation diffusion. The Technology Futures Analysis Methods Working Group (Porter et al., 2004) provides a good review of integrating multiple methods and evolving new methods for technology forecasting. Methods used frequently include scenarios (Sager, 2003; Silberglitt et al.indicates the necessity of combining the forecasting model with the perceived future industry dynamics. He emphasizes that the quantitative forecasting methods such as time series and econometric modeling have become less accurate and cannot be relied upon because the industry no longer has the stable historical relationship that these models rely on. The literature suggests that including forecasts from different statistical methods generally improves accuracy when significant trends are involved. Useful information can be obtained using several sources of forecasts, adjusting for biases. Yoo and Moon (2006) suggest that instead of trying to choose the best single method, one should combine the results from different methods, which would help in reducing errors arising from faulty assumptions, biases, or mistakes in the data.The new product development literature is relevant because the efforts to create these new technologies are relatively similar to product development and it will provide technology platforms upon which other products will be developed. There is an extensive literature on new product development but for the sake of providing a context and linkage to this literature, we will provide a discussion of a few select papers. The importance and u...

The number of wireless mobile communication service subscribers has reached 4.6 billion worldwide in 2009, and mobile revenues are expected to be over $1 trillion around 2012 according to the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) (ITU, 2010). A significant number of studies have been done to forecast the growing market and evaluate the new generation technology, the Beyond 3 Generation (B3G). However, there is no study forecasting when any of these new technologies will be commercialized. This paper presents a technical framework for forecasting the commercialization timeline of B3G technologies and provides insight on technology trajectories from 1G to 4G. The results show that a combination of technical parameters can explain heterogeneous wireless mobile communication technologies.Three parameters selected include channel bandwidth, channel bit rate, and data capacity for technical framework.the exponential trend, but if 4G technologies do not follow this trend, the overall forecasting model will need to be modified with new data.The study focused only on technical factors to forecast the future of wireless mobile communication technologies without detailed consideration of the markets, so the year of first commercialization was used to reflect market adoption indirectly into the model. However, market penetration and carrier's strategy for both current and future wireless mobile communication technologies need to be incorporated into the analysis in order to provide more comprehensive and accurate forecasting. Even though there are some limitations, this study provides a useful forecasting framework and an outlook for future wireless mobile communication technologies through a quantitative analysis. Notes on contributorsTugrul U Daim is an Associate Professor of Engineering and Technology Management at Portland State University. Dr Daim had been with Intel Corporation for over a decade before he joined PSU as a full time faculty. Dr Daim's research involves exploration of technology assessment in industries including automotive, energy, semiconductor manufacturing, communications and health care. He consults with government agencies and companies all around the world. He is also a visiting Professor at Technical University of Hamburg Harburg. Dr. Daim has over 100 papers published in journals and conference proceedings. He is the editor in chief for International Journal of Innovation and Technology Management.

Technology has played a central role in the Northwest’s development, from the Federal Columbia River Power System to technology giants like Boeing, Microsoft and Intel to thousands of businesses, universities and laboratories. In the Northwest, irrigation is high tech. This savvy has allowed the region to meet half of its load growth through cost-effective investments in energy efficiency for more than thirty years. Through the leadership of the region’s utilities, labs, universities, energy organizations and private businesses, the Northwest has been able to successfully deliver energy efficiency as a reliable resource. The Northwest Power and Conservation Council’s Sixth Power Plan calls for roughly 85 percent of the region’s power needs to be met with energy efficiency by 2030. In order to meet these goals, we must find ways to increase the adoption rates of existing products and services. At the same time, we must also strategically target the region’s research and development resources into efforts that will produce the technologies needed to enable the products of tomorrow. Beginning in December 2009, thirty-five experts from twenty organizations pooled their efforts to develop an energy efficiency technology roadmap that would define a research agenda for the Northwest. The results of the intensive ten-week effort, along with revisions based on critical comments received following the release of a Northwest Energy Efficiency Technology Roadmap.