Forecasting the electricity demand of buildings is a key step in preventing a high concentration of electricity demand and optimizing the operation of national power systems. Recently, the overall performance of electricity-demand forecasting has been improved through the application of long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, which are well-suited to processing time-series data. However, previous studies have focused on improving the accuracy in forecasting only overall electricity demand, but not peak demand. Therefore, this study proposes adding residual learning to the LSTM approach to improve the forecast accuracy of both peak and total electricity demand. Using a residual block, the residual LSTM proposed in this study can map the residual function, which is the difference between the hypothesis and the observed value, and subsequently learn a pattern for the residual load. The proposed model delivered root mean square errors (RMSE) of 10.5 and 6.91 for the peak and next-day electricity demand forecasts, respectively, outperforming the benchmark models evaluated. In conclusion, the proposed model provides highly accurate forecasting information, which can help consumers achieve an even distribution of load concentration and countries achieve the stable operation of the national power system.
A method for predicting the financial status of construction companies after a medium-to-long-term period can help stakeholders in large construction projects make decisions to select an appropriate company for the project. This study compares the performances of various prediction models. It proposes an appropriate model for predicting the financial distress of construction companies considering three, five, and seven years ahead of the prediction point. To establish the prediction model, a financial ratio was selected, which was adopted in existing studies on medium-to-long-term predictions in other industries, as an additional input variable. To compare the performances of the prediction models, single-machine learning and ensemble models’ performances were compared. The comprehensive performance comparison of these models was based on the average value of the prediction performance and the results of the Friedman test. The comparison result determined that the random subspace (RS) model exhibited the best performance in predicting the financial status of construction companies after a medium-to-long-term period. The proposed model can be effectively employed to help large-scale project stakeholders avoid damage caused by the financial distress of construction companies during the project implementation process.
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