The simultaneous occurrence of droughts and floods in neighboring regions amplifies the threats posed by droughts and floods individually. Nonetheless, few studies have been conducted to investigate the simultaneous occurrence of drought and flood events. Here we explore the spatiotemporal characteristics and the shift pattern of droughts and pluvials over Eastern China from a three‐dimensional perspective, using the self‐calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index and the Climate Research Unit data set as well as four regional climate model simulations. We find that Eastern China experienced droughts and pluvials simultaneously in different locations during boreal summer, and it is projected to simultaneously experience more frequent and more intense droughts and pluvials under a warming climate. Specifically, we investigate the pattern of more pluvials in Southeast China and more droughts in Northeast China for the historical period of 1975–2004. This pattern dynamically evolves under climate warming: the pluvial‐dominated regime shifts from Southeast to Northeast China, while the drought‐dominated regime shifts from Northeast to Southeast China. The weakening strength of the western Pacific subtropical high and a northward displacement of the monsoon rain belt may both contribute to the pattern of more pluvials in Northeast China and more droughts in Southeast China. These findings provide insights into the development of adaptation strategies and emergency response plans for enhancing society's resilience to the spatial co‐occurrence of dry and wet extremes.
Soil erosion is impacted by climate and land use changes which need to be quantified to assess future risks and to design efficient soil conservation measures. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations have provided the basis for most such assessments and yet are being gradually superseded by more recent simulations from Phase 6 (CMIP6). The High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) experiment in CMIP6 adds value over the downscaled CMIP5 simulations by improving process representation in the global climate system. Our study investigates and compares high-resolution model simulations from CMIP6 against CMIP5. Model evaluation for the reference period (1986–2005) indicates that the CMIP6 model outperforms the regional climate models (RCM) from CMIP5 for better circulation simulations, but both overestimate soil erosion in China. The average projected soil erosion increases by 27.85 from CMIP5 and 20.03 t·hm-2·a-1 from the CMIP6 model with remarkable geographical heterogeneity. Soil erosion is projected to decrease in black soil regions, purple soil regions, and karst regions from CMIP6 results, which is opposite to the increasing trend found in those regions from CMIP5. Land use and climatic changes contributed 51.68% and -5.92% respectively from CMIP5 simulations while 35.74% and -13.77% from CMIP6 to the increased soil erosion rate. The negative contribution of land use change is gradually intensified with the CMIP6 model representing finer-scale processes of converting land-use type into cropland, pasture, and urban land. Overall, the CMIP6 projections provide a less severe soil erosion situation while addressing the need to pursue soil conservation more.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
hi@scite.ai
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.