Greenhouse gas emissions from the agricultural ecosystem account for 7%-20% of the world's total greenhouse gas emissions, while approximately 17% of China's carbon emissions are from agriculture. In this study, based on the scientific calculation system of carbon emissions in agriculture, we calculated the carbon emissions of agriculture in the Hotan prefecture between 1999 and 2013 and analyzed their spatial-temporal characteristics; next, we used the LMDI model to study the driving factors of agricultural carbon emissions. The results demonstrated the following: (1) in time series, the agricultural carbon emissions showed three stages of change, i.e., "decline, continued to rise and decline", during the period of 1999 to 2013 in the Hotan prefecture; (2) In space, the carbon emissions from agricultural land use, paddy fields, enteric fermentation, and manure management were different due to the different sizes of cities and counties. The intensity of agricultural carbon emissions was varied and high, but the agricultural production structure, agricultural carbon emissions structure and other aspects had a high degree of consistency and homogeneity in the cities and counties of the Hotan prefecture; (3) Regarding the driving mechanism, the labor factor, agricultural labor productivity, and planting-animal husbandry carbon intensity are the main factors that increase agricultural carbon emissions in the Hotan prefecture. Compared with 1999, three major factors cumulatively achieved a 199.68% carbon emission increment from 2000 to 2013, of which the labor factor cumulatively increased by 120.04%, the agricultural labor productivity factor cumulatively increased by 54.94% and the planting-animal husbandry carbon intensity factor cumulatively increased by 24.70%. The agricultural production structure factor largely inhibited agricultural carbon emissions of the Hotan prefecture, which cut 99.74% of the carbon emissions from 2000 to 2013. Finally, we proposed policy recommendations, including the acceleration of labor transfer, the innovation and promotion of science and technology, the scientific breeding and rational disposal of livestock waste, and the adjustment and optimization of the agricultural industry structure.

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Xinjiang’s agricultural carbon emissions showed three stages of change, i.e., continued to rise, declined and continued to rise, during 1991–2014. The agriculture belonged to the “low emissions and high efficiency” agriculture category, with a lower agricultural carbon emission intensity. By using the logarithmic mean divisia index decomposition method, agricultural carbon emissions were decomposed into an efficiency factor, a structure factor, an economy factor, and a labour factor. We divided the study period into five stages based on the changes in efficiency factor and economy factor. Xinjiang showed different agricultural carbon emission characteristics at different stages. The degree of impact on agricultural carbon emissions at these stages depended on the combined effect of planting-animal husbandry carbon intensity and agricultural labour productivity. The economy factor was the critical factor to promote the increase in agricultural carbon emissions, while the main inhibiting factor for agricultural carbon emissions was the efficiency factor. The labour factor became more and more obvious in increasing agricultural carbon emissions. Finally, we discuss policy recommendations in terms of the main factors, including the development of agricultural science and technology (S&T), the establishment of three major mechanisms and transfer of rural labour in ethnic areas.