Accurate state of health (SOH) estimation in lithium-ion batteries, which plays a significant role not only in state of charge (SOC) estimation but also in remaining useful life (RUL) prognostics is studied. SOC estimation and RUL prognostics often require one-step-ahead and long-term SOH prediction, respectively. A systematic multiscale Gaussian process regression (GPR) modeling method is proposed to tackle accurate SOH estimation problems. Wavelet analysis method is utilized to decouple global degradation, local regeneration and fluctuations in SOH time series. GPR with the inclusion of time index is utilized to fit the extracted global degradation trend, and GPR with the input of lag vector is designed to recursively predict local regeneration and fluctuations. The proposed method is validated through experimental data from lithium-ion batteries degradation test. Both one-step-ahead and multi-step-ahead SOH prediction performances are thoroughly evaluated. The satisfactory results illustrate that the proposed method outperform GPR models without trend extraction. It is thus indicated that the proposed multiscale GPR modeling method can not only be greatly helpful to both RUL prognostics and SOC estimation for lithium-ion batteries, but also provide a general promising approach to tackle complex time series prediction in health management systems.

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In this paper, we report our second-part result for the M1.8 class flare on 2012 July 5, with an emphasis on the initiation process for the flare-associated filament eruption. The data set consists of high-resolution narrowband images in He i 10830 Å and broadband images in TiO 7057 Å taken at Big Bear Solar Observatory with the 1.6 m aperture Goode Solar Telescope. EUV images in different passbands observed by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory are used to distinguish hot plasma from cool plasma structures during the flare process. High-resolution 10830 Å images clearly show that, below the horizontal fibrils, which correspond to the filament’s spine in full-disk Hα images, a sheared arch filament system (AFS) lies across the penumbra and surrounding satellite sunspots, between which continuous shearing motion is observed. Before the eruption, three microflares occurred successively and were followed by the appearance of three EUV hot channels. Two hot channels erupted, producing two flaring sites and two major peaks in GOES soft X-ray light curves; however, one hot channel’s eruption failed. The 10830 Å imaging enables us to trace the first two hot channels to their very early stage, which is signified by the rising of the AFS after the first two precursors. Continuous flux emergence and localized flare-associated cancellation are observed under the AFS. In addition, EUV ejections were observed during the formation of the EUV hot channels. These observations support the fact that the hot channels are the result of magnetic reconnections during precursors.

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