No abstract

The Indian summer monsoon (ISM) tends to be intensified in a global-warming scenario, with a weakened linkage with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but how the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) responds is still an open question. This study investigates the responses of the EASM from observations, theoretical, and modeling perspectives. Observational and theoretical evidence demonstrates that, in contrast to the dramatic global-warming trend within the past 50 years, the regional-mean EASM rainfall is basically dominated by considerable interannual-to-decadal fluctuations, concurrent with enhanced precipitation over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and over southern Japan and suppressed rainfall amount over the South China and Philippine Seas. From 1958 through 2008, the EASM circulation exhibits a southward shift in its major components (the subtropical westerly jet stream, the western Pacific Ocean subtropical high, the subtropical mei-yu–baiu–changma front, and the tropical monsoon trough). Such a southward shift is very likely or in part due to the meridional asymmetric warming with the most prominent surface warming in the midhigh latitudes (45°–60°N), which induces a weakened meridional thermal contrast over eastern Asia. Another notable feature is the enhanced ENSO–EASM relationship within the past 50 years, which is opposite to the ISM. Fourteen state-of-the-art coupled models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change show that the EASM strength does not respond with any pronounced trend to the global-warming “A1B” forcing scenario (with an atmospheric CO2 concentration of 720 ppm) but shows interannual-to-decadal variations in the twenty-first century (2000–99). These results indicate that the primary response of the EASM to a warming climate may be a position change instead of an intensity change, and such position change may lead to spatial coexistence of floods and droughts over eastern Asia as has been observed in the past 50 years.

The present work identifies two types of La Niña based on the spatial distribution of sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly. In contrast to the eastern Pacific (EP) La Niña event, a new type of La Niña (central Pacific, or CP La Niña) is featured by the SST cooling center over the CP. These two types of La Niña exhibit a fundamental difference in SST anomaly evolution: the EP La Niña shows a westward propagation feature while the CP La Niña exhibits a standing feature over the CP. The two types of La Niña can give rise to a significantly different teleconnection around the globe. As a response to the EP La Niña, the North Atlantic (NA)-Western European (WE) region experiences the atmospheric anomaly resembling a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern accompanied by a weakening Atlantic jet. It leads to a cooler and drier than normal winter over Western Europe. However, the CP La Niña has a roughly opposing impact on the NA-WE climate. A positive NAO-like climate anomaly is observed with a strengthening Atlantic jet, and there appears a warmer and wetter than normal winter over Western Europe. Modeling experiments indicate that the above contrasting atmospheric anomalies are mainly attributed to the different SST cooling patterns for the two types of La Niña. Mixing up their signals would lead to difficulty in seasonal prediction of regional climate. Since the La Niña-related SST anomaly is clearly observed during the developing autumn, the associated winter climate anomalies over Western Europe could be predicted a season in advance.

ABSTRACT:In contrast to the weakened relationship between the Indian summer monsoon and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) since 1970s, the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) has exhibited a strengthened relationship with ENSO. In this study, observational and numerical evidences manifest that spring NAO may exert notable impacts on the enhancement of the EASM-ENSO relationship. Anomalous spring NAO induces a tripole sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) pattern in North Atlantic which persists into ensuring summer. The tripole SSTA excites downstream tele-connections of a distinct Rossby wave train prevailing over the northern Eurasia and a simple Gill-Matsuno-type quadrupole response over western Pacific. The former modulates the blocking highs over the Ural Mountain and the Okhotsk Sea. The latter enhances the linkage between the western Pacific subtropical high and ENSO. The co-effects of the two tele-connection patterns help to strengthen (or weaken) the subtropical Meiyu-Baiu-Changma front, the primary rain-bearing system of the EASM. As such, spring NAO is tied to the strengthened connection between ENSO and the EASM.

Based on FGGE Level IIIb data, the structural features of 40-50 day oscillations over ann extensive region (30*S-30*N, 30*E-150*W) during the 1979 summer are detailed.The analysis confirms earlier investigations that these low frequency modes are primarily associated with the zonal wind oscillations.These 40-50 day perturbations propagate northward and eastward, which is most clearly defined over the monsoon region north of the equator from 60* to 150*E. The monsoon region is characterized by prominent spectral peaks in the 850mb meridional winds with periods shorter than 10 days, probably reflecting the activities of monsoon disturbances.However, the local Hadley circulation, as defined by averaging the meridional component of the wind between 60* and 150*E, exhibits a distinct spectral peak in the period range of 40-50 days.Similarly, the square of the meridional winds, which is a measure of synoptic-scale disturbance activity, also changes with a period of 40-50 days. These features, which are similar to the group velocity phenomena, are pronounced only over the central monsoon region (10*-20*N, 60*-150*E). The low frequency modes propagate northward and become most intensified near 10*-20*N through mutual interaction between synoptic-scale disturbances, the local Hadley circulation, and the tonal mean flows over the monsoon region.At the equator, the 40-50 day zonal wind pertubations propagate systematically eastward (500km/day) and upward (0.7km/day). In the equatorial region, the low frequency oscillations owe their existence to a lateral geopotential wave-energy flux from the monsoon region, which represents the major energy source for 40-50 day perturbations via the conversion from potential to kinetic enegy.Compared to the equator, the phase propagation of zonal wind perturbations along 15*N, although moving eastward, is not as systematic.At this latitude, zonal wind perturbations are pronounced in the lower troposphere over the monsoon region, and also in the upper troposphere over the western Pacific. As an integral part of E-W interaction between these two regimes, there occurs downward progression of westerly (or easterly) perturbations over to the Arabian Sea region.The downward phase of westerly (easterly) modes corresponds to the commencement of "active" ("break") monsoons over South and Southeast Asia.

The formation of the South Asian high (SAH) in spring and its impacts on the Asian summer monsoon onset are studied using daily 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) data together with a climate-mean composite technique and potential vorticity–diabatic heating (PV–Q) analysis. Results demonstrate that, about 2 weeks before the Asian summer monsoon onset, a burst of convection over the southern Philippines produces a negative vorticity source to its north. The SAH in the upper troposphere over the South China Sea is then generated as an atmospheric response to this negative vorticity forcing with the streamline field manifesting a Gill-type pattern. Afterward, the persistent rainfall over the northern Indochinese peninsula causes the SAH to move westward toward the peninsula. Consequently, a trumpet-shaped flow field is formed to its southwest, resulting in divergence pumping and atmospheric ascent just over the southeastern Bay of Bengal (BOB). Near the surface, as a surface anticyclone is formed over the northern BOB, an SST warm pool is generated in the central–eastern BOB. This, together with SAH pumping, triggers the formation of a monsoon onset vortex (MOV) with strong surface southwesterly developed over the BOB. Enhanced air–sea interaction promotes the further development and northward migration of the MOV. Consequently, the wintertime zonal-orientated subtropical anticyclone belt in the lower troposphere splits, abundant water vapor is transported directly from the BOB to the subtropical continent, and heavy rainfall ensues; the atmospheric circulation changes from winter to summer conditions over the BOB and Asian summer monsoon onset occurs.

[1] As one of the major predictability sources on an intraseasonal time scale, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) exerts a profound influence on the subseasonal forecast of the East Asian (EA) surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation. In this study we examine the direct link of the MJO with the EA SAT and precipitation and its dynamical mechanism. To represent the MJO, we perform an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis on pentad outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) over (20°S−20°N, 60°E−150°W). The EOF1 mode is mostly characterized by a single convection center near the maritime continent (90°−150°E), whereas the EOF2 mode has an east-west dipole structure with enhanced convection over the eastern Indian Ocean and suppressed convective activities over the tropical western Pacific. At the same pentad of a positive EOF1 phase, large areas of cold anomalies with reduced precipitation emerge in the EA region north of 20°N and persist through two pentads later. At the same pentad of a positive EOF2 phase, SAT and precipitation exhibit a zonal dipole pattern with cold and dry anomalies covering the EA region west of 120°E and warm and wet anomalies to the east. These dipole anomalies in SAT and precipitation systematically move eastward in the next two pentads. A linearized global primitive equation model is utilized to assess the cause of the intraseasonal variability in SAT and precipitation over East Asia associated with the tropical heating of the MJO. The model responses to heating sources that mimic the EOF1 and EOF2 OLR patterns match well the general features of the observed circulation anomalies. Under forcing of a positive phase of the EOF1 pattern, strengthened local Hadley cell or monsoon circulations within (90°E−150°E) are reproduced, with anomalous northerly winds and dry anomalies prevailing in the lower troposphere over East Asia. The processes that influence East Asia are mainly associated with intraseasonal changes in local Hadley circulation and the Northern Hemisphere branch of the equatorially trapped Rossby wave gyres forced by the MJO heating.

During year-to-year El Niño events in recent decades, major sea surface warming has occurred frequently in the central Pacific. This is distinct from the eastern Pacific warming pattern during canonical El Niño events. Accordingly, the central-Pacific El Niño exerts distinct impacts on ecosystems, climate and hurricanes worldwide. The increased frequency of the new type of El Niño presents a challenge not only for the understanding of El Niño dynamics and its change but also for the prediction of El Niño and its global impacts at present and future climate. Previous studies have proposed different indices to represent the two types of El Niño for better understanding, prediction and impact assessment. Here, we find that all popularly used indices for the central-Pacific El Niño show a dominant spectral peak at a decadal period with comparatively weak variance at interannual timescales. Our results suggest that decadal anomalies have an important contribution to the occurrence of the central-Pacific El Niño over past decades. Removing the decadal component leads to a significant reduction in the frequency of the central-Pacific El Niño in observations and in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 simulations of preindustrial, historical and future climate.