Bursaphelenchus xylophilus is number one invasive alien species in China's forestry. Since it invaded China in 1982, it has spread to 18 provinces (cities) in 2020. In order to clarify its expansion law and the impact of climate factors, we collected the the census data of pine wilt disease (PWD) from 2010 to 2020, as well as the meteorological data. The "centroid model" was used to analyze the movement of the centroid of the epidemic area in China, and the results showed that the center of PWD occurrence was basically located in Jiangxi Province. Compared with the centroid position of North America (The native production), the centroid position where PWD occurs in China is southward, and the difference between the two is 10.5195°. By comparing the distribution of south boundary, north boundary and centroid of PWD in the native area of North America, it shows that Bursaphelenchus xylophilus can flourish in all regions of China, and the PWD epidemic in China will spread to the North in the future. In addition, the relationship between PWD epidemic and temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and relative humidity in Jiangxi Province was quantitatively analyzed using redundancy analysis (RDA). It shows that the relationship between PWD and temperature is the most closely, which is positive correlation, followed by precipitation, which is negative correlation. Meanwhile, the effect of wind speed on PWD is second only to precipitation and temperature. These analysis results have certain significance for the prevention and control of PWD.
Obolodiplosis robiniae was discovered in Eurasia at the beginning of the 21st century and was then spread at an explosive rate. Here, we explore the current and future (in years 2050 and 2070) trends in the potential distribution of O. robiniae in Eurasia under diverse climate change scenarios based on a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model. Our results showed that the current potential distribution area of O. robiniae is within the range of 21.58°-65.66°N in the Eurasian continent. The total current potential distribution (CPD) area of O. robiniae in Eurasia was 10,896,309.16 km2, with suitable areas covering a substantial section of Europe. The Annual Mean Temperature (Bio1), Annual Precipitation (Bio12), and the Precipitation of the Driest Month (Bio14) are the most important bioclimatic variables determining the potential distribution of O. robiniae. The future area suitable for habitat of O. robiniae is characterized by a large-scale northward expansion trend with temperature elevation. The marginally suitable and highly suitable areas would thus increase, whereas the southern appropriate areas would shrink. Under the SSP585 scenario, in 2070, the suitable area of O. robiniae would be the largest, up to 14,696,253.77 km2, which is 34.87% more than the current suitable area. This information would facilitate the provision of early warning on the potential distribution areas of O. robiniae issued by the forestry quarantine departments of Asian and European countries and provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of O. robiniae spread and outbreaks.
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