As the COVID-19 pandemic upended the 2019–2020 school year, education systems scrambled to meet the needs of students and families with little available data on how school closures may impact learning. In this study, we produced a series of projections of COVID-19-related learning loss based on (a) estimates from absenteeism literature and (b) analyses of summer learning patterns of 5 million students. Under our projections, returning students are expected to start fall 2020 with approximately 63 to 68% of the learning gains in reading and 37 to 50% of the learning gains in mathematics relative to a typical school year. However, we project that losing ground during the school closures was not universal, with the top third of students potentially making gains in reading.

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Any opinions expressed in this paper are those of the author(s) and not those of IZA. Research published in this series may include views on policy, but IZA takes no institutional policy positions. The IZA research network is committed to the IZA Guiding Principles of Research Integrity. The IZA Institute of Labor Economics is an independent economic research institute that conducts research in labor economics and offers evidence-based policy advice on labor market issues. Supported by the Deutsche Post Foundation, IZA runs the world's largest network of economists, whose research aims to provide answers to the global labor market challenges of our time. Our key objective is to build bridges between academic research, policymakers and society. IZA Discussion Papers often represent preliminary work and are circulated to encourage discussion. Citation of such a paper should account for its provisional character. A revised version may be available directly from the author.

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Both anecdotal and systematic evidence points to the importance of teachers for students' long run success. Previous research on effective teachers has focused almost exclusively on student test score gains in math and reading. For this study we are able to link middle and high school teachers to the class-attendance of students in their classrooms, and to create measures of teachers' contributions to student attendance. Student absence is a growing concern for policy makers. On average, secondary students in the United States are absent from school three weeks per year (Snyder & Dillow, 2013), and even when they are in school, they miss many classes. We find systematic variation in teacher effectiveness at reducing class absences. These differences across teachers are as stable as those for student achievement. While positively correlated with teachers' value-added to achievement, teachers' value-added to attendance is clearly different and contributes independently and approximately equally to long run student outcomes including high school graduation.

Although program evaluations using rigorous quasi-experimental or experimental designs can inform decisions about whether to continue or terminate a given program, they often have limited ability to reveal the mechanisms by which complex interventions achieve their effects. To illuminate these mechanisms, this article analyzes novel text data from thousands of school improvement planning and implementation reports from Washington State, deploying computer-assisted techniques to extract measures of school improvement processes. Our analysis identified 15 coherent reform strategies that varied greatly across schools and over time. The prevalence of identified reform strategies was largely consistent with school leaders’ own perceptions of reform priorities via interviews. Several reform strategy measures were significantly associated with reductions in student chronic absenteeism and improvements in student achievement. We finally discuss the opportunities and pitfalls of using novel text data to study reform processes.