Objective To compare the predictive accuracy and clinical utility of five risk scoring systems in the assessment of patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding.Design International multicentre prospective study.Setting Six large hospitals in Europe, North America, Asia, and Oceania.Participants 3012 consecutive patients presenting over 12 months with upper gastrointestinal bleeding.Main outcome measures Comparison of pre-endoscopy scores (admission Rockall, AIMS65, and Glasgow Blatchford) and post-endoscopy scores (full Rockall and PNED) for their ability to predict predefined clinical endpoints: a composite endpoint (transfusion, endoscopic treatment, interventional radiology, surgery, or 30 day mortality), endoscopic treatment, 30 day mortality, rebleeding, and length of hospital stay. Optimum score thresholds to identify low risk and high risk patients were determined.Results The Glasgow Blatchford score was best (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) 0.86) at predicting intervention or death compared with the full Rockall score (0.70), PNED score (0.69), admission Rockall score (0.66, and AIMS65 score (0.68) (all P<0.001). A Glasgow Blatchford score of ≤1 was the optimum threshold to predict survival without intervention (sensitivity 98.6%, specificity 34.6%). The Glasgow Blatchford score was better at predicting endoscopic treatment (AUROC 0.75) than the AIMS65 (0.62) and admission Rockall scores (0.61) (both P<0.001). A Glasgow Blatchford score of ≥7 was the optimum threshold to predict endoscopic treatment (sensitivity 80%, specificity 57%). The PNED (AUROC 0.77) and AIMS65 scores (0.77) were best at predicting mortality, with both superior to admission Rockall score (0.72) and Glasgow Blatchford score (0.64; P<0.001). Score thresholds of ≥4 for PNED, ≥2 for AIMS65, ≥4 for admission Rockall, and ≥5 for full Rockall were optimal at predicting death, with sensitivities of 65.8-78.6% and specificities of 65.0-65.3%. No score was helpful at predicting rebleeding or length of stay.Conclusions The Glasgow Blatchford score has high accuracy at predicting need for hospital based intervention or death. Scores of ≤1 appear the optimum threshold for directing patients to outpatient management. AUROCs of scores for the other endpoints are less than 0.80, therefore their clinical utility for these outcomes seems to be limited.Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN16235737.

This is the first and largest population-based epidemiology study of AIH in a geographically defined region using standardized inclusion criteria. The observed incidence and prevalence rates are among the highest reported. The present study confirms that AIH presents predominantly in older women, with a peak in the sixth decade, contrary to the classical description of the disease.

Autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) can lead to cirrhosis, hepatic failure, and death. We aimed to identify predictors of advanced liver fibrosis at presentation, predictors of incomplete response to initial immunosuppression, and predictors of poor liver-related outcomes in the population-based AIH cohort from Canterbury, New Zealand. Cases diagnosed after 1980 that fulfilled standard diagnostic criteria were included. Cases were censored at death or liver transplantation and had a median follow-up of 9 years. Analyses were performed with Cox proportional hazards regression and logistic binary regression. The times to event outcomes were summarized using Kaplan-Meier curves. A total of 133 AIH patients were included. Predictors for advanced liver fibrosis at diagnosis were age at presentation of 20 years or >60 years (P 5 0.02), serum albumin <36 g/L (P < 0.01), platelet <150 U/L (P < 0.01), and International Normalized Ratio (INR) >1.2 (P < 0.01). The only independent predictor for incomplete normalization of alanine aminotransferase (ALT) at 6 months was age at presentation 20 years. Independent predictors of poor liver-related outcomes were incomplete normalization of ALT at 6 months (P < 0.01), serum albumin <36 g/L (P < 0.01),

Population-based quantitative data on the mortality and cancer incidence of autoimmune hepatitis (AIH), primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC), and primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) are scarce. Our aim was to systematically investigate the survival and risk of malignancy on population-based cohorts of AIH, PBC, and PSC in Canterbury, New Zealand. Multiple case-finding methods were employed, including searches of all public and private, adult and pediatric outpatient clinics, hospital notes, laboratory, radiology, and pathology reports. Cases that fulfilled standardized diagnostic criteria were included. Kaplan-Meier survival estimates, standardized mortality ratios (SMR), and standard incidence ratios (SIR) for malignancy were calculated. A total of 130 AIH, 70 PBC, and 81 PSC patients were included contributing to 1,156, 625, and 613 personyears at risk, respectively. For AIH, PBC, and PSC cohorts, SMRs for all-cause mortality were 2.1 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.4-3.1), 2.7 (95% CI 1.7-4.0), and 4.1 (95% CI 2.6-6.3), SMRs for hepatobiliary mortality were 42.3 (95% CI 20.3-77.9), 71.2 (95% CI 30.7-140.3), and 116.9 (95% CI 66.8-189.8), SIRs for all cancers were 3.0 (95% CI 2.0-4.3), 1.6 (95% CI 0.8-2.9), and 5.2 (95% CI 3.3-7.8), and SIRs for extrahepatic malignancy were 2.7 (95% CI 1.8-3.9), 1.6 (95% CI 0.8-2.9), and 3.0 (95% CI 1.6-5.1), respectively. Conclusion: This is the first population-based study to examine and compare the survival and cancer incidence in AIH, PBC, and PSC in the same population. The mortality for all three cohorts was significantly increased due to liverrelated death, demonstrating the inadequacy of current management strategies. The risk of hepatic and extrahepatic malignancy was significantly increased in AIH and PSC patients. (HEPATOLOGY 2012;55:522-529)

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BACKGROUND & AIMS:Autoimmune hepatitis (AIH), primary biliary cholangitis (PBC), and primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) are autoimmune liver diseases of unknown etiology. We studied trends in incidences of AIH, PBC, and PSC in a population-based prospective study Canterbury, New Zealand. METHODS:We collected data on patients with AIH (n [ 99), PBC (n [ 26), or PSC (n [ 47) from public hospitals and private practices in Canterbury from 2008 through 2016. Diagnoses were made based on international standardized criteria. We calculated incidence rates for the time periods of 2008-2010, 2011-2013, and 2014-2016 and compared them using 2-tailed mid-P exact tests. RESULTS:Overall incidence rates were 1.93 per 100,000 for AIH (95% CI, 1.58-2.34), 0.51 per 100,000 for PBC (95% CI, 0.33-0.73), and 0.92 per 100,000 for PSC (95% CI, 0.68-1.21). The incidence of AIH was significantly higher during the period of 2014-2016 (2.39 per 100,000; 95% CI, 1.76-3.23) than during the period of 2008-2010 (1.37 per 100,000; 95% CI, 0.91-2.06) (P < .05).Incidences of PBC and PSC did not change significantly. In 2016, prevalence values were 27.4 per 100,000 for AIH (95% CI, 23.58-32.0), 9.33 per 100,000 for PBC (95% CI, 7.13-12.05), and 13.17 per 100,000 for PSC (95% CI, 10.56-16.42). CONCLUSIONS:In a population-based prospective study, we found that the incidence of AIH was significantly higher in the 2014-2016 period than the 2008-2010 period; incidences of PBC and PSC were unchanged over the same period. Further studies are needed to determine the reasons for changes in incidence of autoimmune liver diseases.

We found that antibiotics are an independent risk factor for the development of AIH, whereas alcohol consumption and living in a childhood home with wood heating are independent protective factors against the later development of AIH.

Despite being older, with higher American Society of Anesthesiologists classification, AIMS65, and Rockall scores, patients who have UGIB that requires endoscopic therapy and take anti-thrombotic drugs have lower mortality due to GI bleeding and shorter hospital stays, with similar rates of rebleeding, surgery, and transfusions, compared with those not taking anti-thrombotic drugs.