IMPORTANCE The World Health Organization End TB (Tuberculosis) Strategy aims to decrease the global incidence and mortality of TB by 90% and 95%, respectively, as of 2035. OBJECTIVE To characterize the recent epidemiological trend of pulmonary TB (PTB) in mainland China based on the national surveillance data. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This cross-sectional study collected demographic and clinical data of all patients reported in the national Tuberculosis Information Management System of
Objective To quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of Fangcang shelter hospitals, designated hospitals, and the time interval from illness onset to diagnosis toward the prevention and control of the COVID-19 epidemic. Methods We used SEIAR and SEIA-CQFH warehouse models to simulate the two-period epidemic in Wuhan and calculate the time dependent basic reproduction numbers (BRNs) of symptomatic infected individuals, asymptomatic infected individuals, exposed individuals, and community-isolated infected individuals. Scenarios that varied in terms of the maximum numbers of open beds in Fangcang shelter hospitals and designated hospitals, and the time intervals from illness onset to hospitals visit and diagnosis were considered to quantitatively assess the optimal measures. Results The BRN decreased from 4.50 on Jan 22, 2020 to 0.18 on March 18, 2020. Without Fangcang shelter hospitals, the cumulative numbers of cases and deaths would increase by 18.58 and 51.73%, respectively. If the number of beds in the designated hospitals decreased by 1/2 and 1/4, the number of cumulative cases would increase by 178.04 and 92.1%, respectively. If the time interval from illness onset to hospital visit was 4 days, the number of cumulative cases and deaths would increase by 2.79 and 6.19%, respectively. If Fangcang shelter hospitals were not established, the number of beds in designated hospitals reduced 1/4, and the time interval from visiting hospitals to diagnosis became 4 days, the cumulative number of cases would increase by 268.97%. Conclusion The declining BRNs indicate the high effectiveness of the joint measures. The joint measures led by Fangcang shelter hospitals are crucial and need to be rolled out globally, especially when medical resources are limited.
ObjectiveTo describe the incidence and epidemiological characteristics of child pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) notified to the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Tuberculosis Information Management System (TBIMS) from 2009 to 2015.Study designA database of child PTB for 31 provinces in mainland China over 7 years was retrospectively analysed. The spatiotemporal distribution of child PTB was described.ResultsIn total, 35,710 child PTB cases were notified to the TBIMS, representing only 0.60% of all 5,991,593 PTB case notifications. The average annual notified incidence of child PTB was 2.44/ per 100,000 children (95% CI: 1.77–3.10) and decreased by 52.53% in all age groups during the study period. Tibet had the highest incidence (15.95/ per 100,000 children), followed by Guizhou and Xinjiang. However, the case numbers were the most in Guizhou. The 0-1 year and 12–14 years of age groups exhibited the most cases. The positive rates of sputum smears, bacteriology and chest X-rays abnormality were 21.5%, 21.7% and 98.1%, respectively, which were lower than those 15 years of age and older (all p-values<0.0001).ConclusionThe notified incidence of child PTB in mainland China decreased substantially over 7 years. Future prevention and control of PTB in children should focus on the 0–1 and 12–14 years of age groups, and Tibet and Guizhou provinces. However, the notified incidence is still low, relative to adults, suggesting substantial under-reporting. Thus, more effective care seeking, identification and registration of children with TB are crucial.
Background In 2005, China established an internet-based Tuberculosis Information Management System (TBIMS) to monitor changes in tuberculosis (TB). Many scholars have conducted epidemiological research using TBIMS; however, few studies assessing control strategies have been performed based on this platform data. Henan province is a high TB incidence area in China where, in addition to following the nationwide TB strategies, a series of local intervention combinations have been implemented. Objective Our study aims to evaluate the impact of nationwide TB intervention combinations on epidemiological changes and determine whether Henan province can achieve the World Health Organization’s (WHO) goal of reducing TB incidence by 50% and TB mortality by 75% by the year 2025. Methods We used descriptive statistical methods to show the spatial and temporal distribution of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) reported to the TBIMS database from 2005 to 2018, and logistic regression analysis was performed to identify the risk factors of bacteriological-positive TB. The dynamic compartmental model and Bayesian melding approach was adopted to estimate the burden of TB under the impact of different TB control policies. Results In total, 976,526 PTB cases were notified to the TBIMS in Henan in a period of 14 years. Although the overall incidence of PTB declined from 91.4/105 to 58.5/105, and the overall incidence of bacteriological-positive PTB declined from 44.5/105 to 14.7/105, the WHO’s 2025 goal could not be met. The distribution of high incidence and poverty-stricken counties were basically overlapped. Men, farmers and herdsmen (in rural areas), and subjects aged ≥60 years were more likely to develop bacteriological-positive PTB. The increasing treatment success for drug-susceptible tuberculosis and multidrug-resistant tuberculosis has not provided the desired reduction in incidence and mortality. Conclusions To achieve the targeted goal, while improving the cure rate of TB, new active (rather than passive) detection and intervention strategies should be formulated based on epidemiological characteristics in Henan province.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
hi@scite.ai
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.