We investigate the impact of uncertainty in the metallicity-specific star formation rate over cosmic time on predictions of the rates and masses of double compact object mergers observable through gravitational waves. We find that this uncertainty can change the predicted detectable merger rate by more than an order of magnitude, comparable to contributions from uncertain physical assumptions regarding binary evolution, such as mass transfer efficiency or supernova kicks. We statistically compare the results produced by the COMPAS population synthesis suite against a catalog of gravitational-wave detections from the first two Advanced LIGO and Virgo observing runs. We find that the rate and chirp mass of observed binary black hole mergers can be well matched under our default evolutionary model with a star formation metallicity spread of 0.39 dex around a mean metallicity Z that scales with redshift z as Z = 0.035×10 −0.23z , assuming a star formation rate of 0.01×(1+z) 2.77 /(1+((1+ z)/2.9) 4.7 ) M Mpc −3 yr −1 . Intriguingly, this default model predicts that 80% of the approximately one binary black hole merger per day that will be detectable at design sensitivity will have formed through isolated binary evolution with only dynamically stable mass transfer, i.e., without experiencing a common-envelope event.

Double neutron stars (DNSs) have been observed as Galactic radio pulsars, and the recent discovery of gravitational waves from the DNS merger GW170817 adds to the known DNS population. We perform rapid population synthesis of massive binary stars and discuss model predictions, including DNS formation rates, mass distributions, and delay time distributions. We vary assumptions and parameters of physical processes such as mass transfer stability criteria, supernova natal kick distributions, remnant mass prescriptions and common-envelope energetics. We compute the likelihood of observing the orbital period-eccentricity distribution of the Galactic DNS population under each of our population synthesis models, allowing us to quantitatively compare the models. We find that mass transfer from a stripped post-helium-burning secondary (case BB) onto a neutron star is most likely dynamically stable. We also find that a natal kick distribution composed of both low (Maxwellian σ = 30 km s −1 ) and high (σ = 265 km s −1 ) components is preferred over a single high-kick component. We conclude that the observed DNS mass distribution can place strong constraints on model assumptions.

During its first four months of taking data, Advanced LIGO has detected gravitational waves from two binary black hole mergers, GW150914 and GW151226, along with the statistically less significant binary black hole merger candidate LVT151012. Here we use the rapid binary population synthesis code COMPAS to show that all three events can be explained by a single evolutionary channel—classical isolated binary evolution via mass transfer including a common envelope phase. We show all three events could have formed in low-metallicity environments (Z=0.001) from progenitor binaries with typical total masses ≳160M⊙, ≳60M⊙ and ≳90M⊙, for GW150914, GW151226 and LVT151012, respectively.

The properties of the population of merging binary black holes encode some of the uncertain physics underlying the evolution of massive stars in binaries. The binary black hole merger rate and chirp-mass distribution are being measured by ground-based gravitational-wave detectors. We consider isolated binary evolution, and explore how accurately the physical model can be constrained with such observations by applying the Fisher information matrix to the merging black hole population simulated with the rapid binary-population synthesis code COMPAS. We investigate variations in four COMPAS parameters: common-envelope efficiency, kick-velocity dispersion, and mass-loss rates during the luminous blue variable and Wolf-Rayet stellar-evolutionary phases. We find that ∼ 1000 observations would constrain these model parameters to a fractional accuracy of a few per cent. Given the empirically determined binary black hole merger rate, we can expect gravitational-wave observations alone to place strong constraints on the physics of stellar and binary evolution within a few years. Our approach can be extended to use other observational data sets; combining observations at different evolutionary stages will lead to a better understanding of stellar and binary physics.