Predicting population-level effects of landscape change depends on identifying factors that influence population connectivity in complex landscapes. However, most putative movement corridors and barriers have not been based on empirical data. In this study, we identify factors that influence connectivity by comparing patterns of genetic similarity among 146 black bears (Ursus americanus), sampled across a 3,000-km(2) study area in northern Idaho, with 110 landscape-resistance hypotheses. Genetic similarities were based on the pairwise percentage dissimilarity among all individuals based on nine microsatellite loci (average expected heterozygosity=0.79). Landscape-resistance hypotheses describe a range of potential relationships between movement cost and land cover, slope, elevation, roads, Euclidean distance, and a putative movement barrier. These hypotheses were divided into seven organizational models in which the influences of barriers, distance, and landscape features were statistically separated using partial Mantel tests. Only one of the competing organizational models was fully supported: patterns of genetic structure are primarily related to landscape gradients of land cover and elevation. The alternative landscape models, isolation by barriers and isolation by distance, are not supported. In this black bear population, gene flow is facilitated by contiguous forest cover at middle elevations.

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We used bivariate scaling and logistic regression to investigate multiple-scale habitat selection by American marten (Martes americana). Bivariate scaling reveals dramatic differences in the apparent nature and strength of relationships between marten occupancy and a number of habitat variables across a range of spatial scales. These differences include reversals in the direction of an observed association from positive to negative and frequent dramatic changes in the apparent importance of a habitat variable as a predictor of marten occurrence. Logistic regression on the optimally scaled input variables suggests that at the scale of home ranges, marten select landscapes with high average canopy closure and low fragmentation. Within these low fragmented landscapes, marten select foraging habitat at a fine scale within late-seral, middle-elevation mesic forests. In northern Idaho, optimum American marten habitat, therefore, consists of landscapes with low road density, low density of non-forest patches with high canopy closure, and large areas of middle-elevation, late successional mesic forest. Comparison of current landscape conditions to those expected under the historic range of variability indicates that road building and timber harvest in the past century may have substantially reduced the amount of suitable marten habitat in northern Idaho. Our results are generally consistent with previous research in the Rocky Mountains, with additional insights related to the relative importance, functional form, and scale at which each habitat variable has the largest influence on marten occurrence.

We used mark-recapture analysis to investigate the dynamics of a black bear (Ursus americanus) population in northern Idaho where food availability varies seasonally and annually. We conducted noninvasive genetic sampling (NGS) during [2003][2004][2005][2006] in the Purcell Mountains of Idaho to collect black bear DNA samples for individual identification of bears. We used a combination of both mark-recapture and genetic analyses to evaluate whether variation in vital rates and genetic substructure was a function of changing food productivity in the study area. We found a heterozygote deficiency and detected genetic substructure within a single year, suggesting we sampled multiple subpopulations (a Wahlund effect). Our mark-recapture analyses suggested this pattern was in response to interannual variation in summer berry abundance. This project demonstrated the potential pitfalls of interpreting mark-recapture data over short time periods without ancillary data that can be used to evaluate mechanisms of population change. We found NGS provided information not only for traditional mark-recapture analysis but also complimentary insights into demography gained through genetic analyses. Combining mark-recapture estimates with analyses of population genetics provides a more complete understanding of population dynamics than either method alone, thus improving ecological inferences and effective management. Published 2013. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.