More than half of current coal power capacity is in China. A key strategy for meeting China’s 2060 carbon neutrality goal and the global 1.5 °C climate goal is to rapidly shift away from unabated coal use. Here we detail how to structure a high-ambition coal phaseout in China while balancing multiple national needs. We evaluate the 1037 currently operating coal plants based on comprehensive technical, economic and environmental criteria and develop a metric for prioritizing plants for early retirement. We find that 18% of plants consistently score poorly across all three criteria and are thus low-hanging fruits for rapid retirement. We develop plant-by-plant phaseout strategies for each province by combining our retirement algorithm with an integrated assessment model. With rapid retirement of the low-hanging fruits, other existing plants can operate with a 20- or 30-year minimum lifetime and gradually reduced utilization to achieve the 1.5 °C or well-below 2 °C climate goals, respectively, with complete phaseout by 2045 and 2055.

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, a growing number of states, counties and cities in the United States issued mandatory stay-at-home orders as part of their efforts to slow down the spread of the virus. We argue that the consequences of this one-size-fits-all order will be differentially distributed among economic groups. In this paper, we examine social distance behavior changes for lower income populations. We conduct a comparative analysis of responses between lower-income and upper-income groups and assess their relative exposure to COVID-19 risks. Using a difference-in-difference-in-differences analysis of 3140 counties, we find social distance policy effect on the lower-income group is smaller than that of the upper-income group, by as much as 46% to 54%. Our explorations of the mechanisms behind the disparate effects suggest that for the work-related trips the stay-at-home orders do not significantly reduce low income work trips and this result is statistically significant. That is, the share of essential business defined by stay-at-home orders is significantly negatively correlated with income at county level. In the non-work-related trips, we find that both the lower-income and upper-income groups reduced visits to retail, recreation, grocery, and pharmacy visits after the stay-at-home order, with the upper-income group reducing trips more compared to lower-income group.

Approaches that root national climate strategies in local actions will be essential for all countries as they develop new nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement. The potential impact of climate action from non-national actors in delivering higher global ambition is significant. Sub-national action in the United States provides a test for how such actions can accelerate emissions reductions. We aggregated U.S. state, city, and business commitments within an integrated assessment model to assess how a national climate strategy can be built upon non-state actions. We find that existing commitments alone could reduce emissions 25% below 2005 levels by 2030, and that enhancing actions by these actors could reduce emissions up to 37%. We show how these actions can provide a stepped-up basis for additional federal action to reduce emissions by 49%—consistent with 1.5 °C. Our analysis demonstrates sub-national actions can lead to substantial reductions and support increased national action.

The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated energy insecurity and economic hardship among vulnerable populations. This paper provides robust empirical evidence of the degree to which COVID-19 mitigation measures, especially the mandates of school closure and limiting business operations, have impacted electricity consumption behavior in low-income and ethnic minority groups in the United States. We use a regression discontinuity design applied to individual-consumer-level high-frequency smart meter data in Arizona and Illinois to highlight the disparities in mitigation measure impacts. We find that the mandates of school closures and limiting business operations increase residential electricity consumption by 4-5%, but reduce commercial electricity consumption by 5-8%. Considerable heterogeneity is observed across income and race: low-income and ethnic-minority populations experience a larger electricity consumption increase, reflecting the disproportionate impact of COVID-19 on electricity insecurity in the residential sector. Policies that address energy insecurity, especially during the pandemic, become essentially important.

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The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) has been the major international offset mechanism within the broader world of carbon finance. It was designed with two goals in mind: to lead to significant emission reductions that will help reduce the cost of climate mitigation in countries with commitments as well as contribute to sustainable development in the host countries. However, there has been significant discussion about the degree to which these projects fulfilled their dual mission of emissions reductions and sustainable development, particularly with respect to fostering local community co-benefits as part of broader sustainable development outcomes. In this paper, we review literature on the co-benefits delivered by the CDM at the local or community level, based on a group of 84 peer-reviewed articles and other reports. While perspectives on co-benefits are diverse, most sources argue or acknowledge that even with more recent procedural improvements, the CDM has not consistently delivered significant co-benefits to local communities. It appears likely that the situation has improved somewhat in recent years as CDM procedures have been refined, and there may be more opportunities for enhancing procedures to favor such benefits. There is overall variability in delivering co-benefits depending on the technology type, design features and the country context.

High-quality development rooted in low-carbon growth, new jobs, energy security, and environmental quality will be a critical part of achieving multiple sustainable development goals (SDGs). Doing this will require the dramatic scaling up of new climate finance while maximizing co-benefits across multiple outcomes, including for local communities. We developed a comprehensive methodology to identify different levels of local co-benefits, followed by an econometric analysis to assess how the market values co-benefits through the clean development mechanism. We find that projects with a likelihood of delivering the highest co-benefits received a 30.4% higher price compared to projects with the lowest co-benefits. Project quality indicators such as the Gold Standard, in conveying higher likelihood of co-benefits, conferred a significant price premium between 6.6% and 29%. Our methodology of aligning co-benefits with SDGs and the results of co-benefits valued by the markets indicate approaches to bolstering social and political support for climate finance.

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