Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to provide a foundational reference and practical guidance for modelling small and poor data with incomplete information. Design/methodology/approach – The definitions of four basic models of GM(1, 1), such as Even Grey Model (EGM), Original Difference Grey Model (ODGM), Even Difference Grey Model (EDGM) and Discrete Grey Model (DGM), are put forward. The properties and characteristics of different models are studied and their equivalence are proved. The suitable sequences of different models are studied by simulation and analysis with homogeneous exponential sequences, nonhomogeneous exponential increasing sequences and vibration sequences. Findings – The main conclusions have been obtained as follows: first, the three discrete models of ODGM, EDGM and DGM are suitable for homogeneous exponential sequences or sequences which close to a homogeneous exponential sequence; and second the EGM are suitable for nonhomogeneous exponential increasing sequences and vibration sequences. Practical implications – The outcome obtained in this paper can be consulted for model selection in the course of practical modelling. Originality/value – This paper systematically defined the four basic forms of model GM(1, 1) and studied their properties and characteristics, especially their suitable sequences. Although significant progress has been made in this field, such a systematic study on these models and their suitable sequences is still missing as far as we know. It can provide reference and basis for people to choose the correct model in the actual modelling process.
This paper looks at both the prepayment risks of housing mortgage loan credit default swaps (LCDS) as well as the fuzziness and hesitation of investors as regards prepayments by borrowers. It further discusses the first default pricing of a basket of LCDS in a fuzzy environment by using stochastic analysis and triangular intuition-based fuzzy set theory. Through the ‘fuzzification’ of the sensitivity coefficient in the prepayment intensity, this paper describes the dynamic features of mortgage housing values using the One-factor copula function and concludes with a formula for ‘fuzzy’ pricing the first default of a basket of LCDS. Using analog simulation to analyze the sensitivity of hesitation, we derive a model that considers what the LCDS fair premium is in a fuzzy environment, including a pure random environment. In addition, the model also shows that a suitable pricing range will give investors more flexible choices and make the predictions of the model closer to real market values.
This paper models the jump amplitude and frequency of random parameters of asset value as a triangular fuzzy interval. In other words, we put forward a new double exponential jump diffusion model with fuzziness, express the parameters in terms of total return swap pricing, and derive a fuzzy form pricing formula for the total return swap. Following simulation, we find that the more the fuzziness in financial markets, the more the possibility of fuzzy credit spreads enlarging. On the other hand, when investors exhibit stronger subjective beliefs, fuzzy credit spreads diminish. Using fuzzy information and random analysis, one can consider more uncertain sources to explain how the asset price jump process works and the subjective judgment of investors in financial markets under a variety of fuzzy conditions. An appropriate price range will give investors more flexibility in making a choice.
Traditional discrete grey forecasting model can effectively predict the development trend of the stabilizing system. However, when the system has disturbance information, the prediction result will have larger error, and there will appear significant downward trend in the stability of the model. In the presence of disturbance information, this paper presents a fractional-order linear time-varying parameters discrete grey forecasting model to deal with the system that contains both linear trend and nonlinear trend. The modeling process of the model and calculation method are given. The perturbation bounds of the new model are analyzed by using the least-squares method of perturbation theory. And it is compared with that of the first-order linear time-varying parameters discrete grey forecasting model. Finally, two real cases are given to verify the effectiveness and practicality of the proposed method.
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