Numerical weather prediction ensembles are routinely used for operational weather forecasting. The members of these ensembles are individual simulations with either slightly perturbed initial conditions or different model parameterizations, or occasionally both. Multi-member ensemble output is usually large, multivariate, and challenging to interpret interactively. Forecast meteorologists are interested in understanding the uncertainties associated with numerical weather prediction; specifically variability between the ensemble members. Currently, visualization of ensemble members is mostly accomplished through spaghetti plots of a single mid-troposphere pressure surface height contour. In order to explore new uncertainty visualization methods, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to create a 48-hour, 18 member parameterization ensemble of the 13 March 1993 "Superstorm". A tool was designed to interactively explore the ensemble uncertainty of three important weather variables: water-vapor mixing ratio, perturbation potential temperature, and perturbation pressure. Uncertainty was quantified using individual ensemble member standard deviation, inter-quartile range, and the width of the 95% confidence interval. Bootstrapping was employed to overcome the dependence on normality in the uncertainty metrics. A coordinated view of ribbon and glyph-based uncertainty visualization, spaghetti plots, iso-pressure colormaps, and data transect plots was provided to two meteorologists for expert evaluation. They found it useful in assessing uncertainty in the data, especially in finding outliers in the ensemble run and therefore avoiding the WRF parameterizations that lead to these outliers. Additionally, the meteorologists could identify spatial regions where the uncertainty was significantly high, allowing for identification of poorly simulated storm environments and physical interpretation of these model issues.

While the primary goal of visual analytics research is to improve the quality of insights and findings, a substantial amount of research in provenance has focused on the history of changes and advances throughout the analysis process. The term, provenance, has been used in a variety of ways to describe different types of records and histories related to visualization. The existing body of provenance research has grown to a point where the consolidation of design knowledge requires cross-referencing a variety of projects and studies spanning multiple domain areas. We present an organizational framework of the different types of provenance information and purposes for why they are desired in the field of visual analytics. Our organization is intended to serve as a framework to help researchers specify types of provenance and coordinate design knowledge across projects. We also discuss the relationships between these factors and the methods used to capture provenance information. In addition, our organization can be used to guide the selection of evaluation methodology and the comparison of study outcomes in provenance research.

Many techniques have been proposed to show uncertainty in data visualizations. However, very little is known about their effectiveness in conveying meaningful information. In this paper, we present a user study that evaluates the perception of uncertainty amongst four of the most commonly used techniques for visualizing uncertainty in one-dimensional and twodimensional data. The techniques evaluated are traditional errorbars, scaled size of glyphs, color-mapping on glyphs, and colormapping of uncertainty on the data surface. The study uses generated data that was designed to represent the systematic and random uncertainty components. Twenty-seven users performed two types of search tasks and two types of counting tasks on 1D and 2D datasets. The search tasks involved finding data points that were least or most uncertain. The counting tasks involved counting data features or uncertainty features. A 4 4 full-factorial ANOVA indicated a significant interaction between the techniques used and the type of tasks assigned for both datasets indicating that differences in performance between the four techniques depended on the type of task performed. Several one-way ANOVAs were computed to explore the simple main effects. Bonferronnis correction was used to control for the family-wise error rate for alpha-inflation. Although we did not find a consistent order among the four techniques for all the tasks, there are several findings from the study that we think are useful for uncertainty visualization design. We found a significant difference in user performance between searching for locations of high and searching for locations of low uncertainty. Errorbars consistently underperformed throughout the experiment. Scaling the size of glyphs and color-mapping of the surface performed reasonably well. The efficiency of most of these techniques were highly dependent on the tasks performed. We believe that these findings can be used in future uncertainty visualization design. In addition, the framework developed in this user study presents a structured approach to evaluate uncertainty visualization techniques, as well as provides a basis for future research in uncertainty visualization.

This paper demonstrates the application of Autotune, a methodology aimed at automatically producing calibrated building energy models using measured data, in two case studies. In the first case, a building model is de-tuned by deliberately injecting faults into more than 60 parameters. This model was then calibrated using Autotune and its accuracy with respect to the original model was evaluated in terms of the industry-standard normalized mean bias error and coefficient of variation of root mean squared error metrics set forth in ASHRAE Guideline 14. In addition to whole-building energy consumption, outputs including lighting, plug load profiles, HVAC energy consumption, zone temperatures, and other variables were analyzed. In the second case, Autotune calibration is compared directly to experts' manual calibration of an emulated-occupancy, full-size residential building with comparable calibration results in much less time. The paper concludes with a discussion of the key strengths and weaknesses of auto-calibration approaches.

Modeling the interactions of water and energy systems is important to the enforcement of infrastructure security and system sustainability. To this end, recent technological advancement has allowed the production of large volumes of data associated with functioning of these sectors. We are beginning to see that statistical and machine learning techniques can help elucidate characteristic patterns across these systems from water availability, transport, and use to energy generation, fuel supply, and customer demand, and in the interdependencies among these systems that can leave these systems vulnerable to cascading impacts from single disruptions. In this paper, we discuss ways in which data and machine learning can be applied to the challenges facing the energy-water nexus along with the potential issues associated with the machine learning techniques themselves. We then survey machine learning techniques that have found application to date in energy-water nexus problems. We conclude by outlining future research directions and opportunities for collaboration among the energy-water nexus and machine learning communities that can lead to mutual synergistic advantage.

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EnergyPlus is the flagship building energy simulation software used to model whole building energy consumption for residential and commercial establishments. A typical input to the program often has hundreds, sometimes thousands of parameters which are typically tweaked by a buildings expert to "get it right". This process can sometimes take months. "Autotune" is an ongoing research effort employing machine learning techniques to automate the tuning of the input parameters for an EnergyPlus input description of a building. Even with automation, the computational challenge faced to run the tuning simulation ensemble is daunting and requires the use of supercomputers to make it tractable in time. In this paper, we describe the scope of the problem, particularly the technical challenges faced and overcome, and the software infrastructure developed/in development when taking the EnergyPlus engine, which was primarily designed to run on desktops, and scaling it to run on shared memory supercomputers (Nautilus) and distributed memory supercomputers (Frost and Titan). The parametric simulations produce data in the order of tens to a couple of hundred terabytes. We describe the approaches employed to streamline and reduce bottlenecks in the workflow for this data, which is subsequently being made available for the tuning effort as well as made available publicly for open-science.