China's major energy projects along the Belt and Road are characterized by large-scale capital investment, long construction cycles, and complex investment environments, making it more difficult to assess project investment risks. Based on the PESTEL theory, a risk evaluation index system is constructed for energy enterprises' investment projects along the Belt and Road. In view of the uncertainty of energy investment projects, a risk evaluation method combining a cloud model and an evidence theory is proposed. To examine the developed index system and risk evaluation method, an overseas hydropower investment project is chosen and the risk factors are analyzed. The results suggest that the risk level of the enterprise's project is highest, the political and environmental risks are both high, the economic and project risks are both at average level, and the energy risk is relatively low, which verifies the effectiveness of this information fusion method. The method can be used to solve the problem of linguistic ambiguity and uncertainty in multi-attribute decision problems and is applicable to similar investment projects, thus providing a new technical path to assess the investment risks of energy enterprises along the Belt and Road.
PurposeTo strengthen the correlation analysis on risk factors of drug production safety and reduce the influence due to fuzzy judgments, a safety risk assessment method based on Grey-Analytic Network Process (G-ANP) is proposed.Design/methodology/approachFirst, an index system evaluating drug production safety risk is constructed according to the “Good Manufacture Practice of Medical Products,” next the influence weight of each risk index is derived by using the Analytic Network Process, then the grey number of each risk index is determined by further utilizing the grey statistical theory, and finally the risk level of drug production is obtained.FindingsAn empirical study is conducted and the results support the feasibility and practicability to use G-ANP method for drug production safety risk evaluation. The results of the case show that it is feasible and practical to use G-ANP method for drug production safety risk evaluation.Originality/valueThe innovation lies in the use of G-ANP method to fully consider the interdependence and interaction between the risk factors of drug production safety, which improves the objectivity in judging the risk level of drug production and provides a scientific basis for pharmaceutical manufacturers to formulate further decisions and management in the case of insufficient quantification of risk factors. Based on the findings, more targeted suggestions are made to reduce the production risk of pharmaceutical enterprises.
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