ObjectivesThe aim of this study was to estimate the relative risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) among people living with HIV (PLHIV) compared with the HIV-uninfected population. MethodsWe conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies from the peer-reviewed literature. We searched the Medline database for relevant journal articles published before August 2010. Eligible studies were observational and randomized controlled trials, reporting CVD, defined as myocardial infarction (MI), ischaemic heart disease, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events or coronary heart disease among HIV-positive adults. Pooled relative risks were calculated for various groupings, including different classes of antiretroviral therapy (ART). ResultsThe relative risk of CVD was 1.61 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.43-1.81] among PLHIV without ART compared with HIV-uninfected people. The relative risk of CVD was 2.00 (95% CI 1.70-2.37) among PLHIV on ART compared with HIV-uninfected people and 1.52 (95% CI 1.35-1.70) compared with treatment-naïve PLHIV. We estimate the relative risk of CVD associated with protease inhibitor (PI)-, nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor-and nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor-based ART to be 1.11 (95% CI 1.05-1.17), 1.05 (95% CI 1.01-1.10) and 1.04 (95% CI 0.99-1.09) per year of exposure, respectively. Not all ART was associated with increased risk; specifically, lopinavir/ritonavir and abacavir were associated with the greater risk and the relative risk of MI for PI-based versus non-PI-based ART was 1.41 (95% CI 1.20-1.65). ConclusionPLHIV are at increased risk of cardiovascular disease. Although effective in prolonging survival, ART (in particular PI-based regimens) is related to further increased risk of CVD events among people at highest initial absolute risk of cardiovascular disease.

BackgroundAntiretroviral therapy (ART) has substantially decreased mortality and HIV-related morbidity. However, other morbidities appear to be more common among PLHIV than in the general population. This study aimed to estimate the relative risk of renal disease among people living with HIV (PLHIV) compared to the HIV-uninfected population.MethodsWe conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of relative risks of renal disease among populations of PLHIV reported in studies from the peer-reviewed literature. We searched Medline for relevant journal articles published before September 2010, yielding papers published during or after 2002. We also searched conference proceedings of the International AIDS Society (IAS) and Conference on Retroviruses and Opportunistic Infections (CROI) prior to and including 2010. Eligible studies were observational studies reporting renal disease defined as acute or chronic reduced renal function with glomerular filtration rate less than or equal to 60 ml/min/1.73 m2 among HIV-positive adults. Pooled relative risks were calculated for various groupings, including class of ART drugs administered.ResultsThe overall relative risk of renal disease was 3.87 (95% CI: 2.85-6.85) among HIV-infected people compared to HIV-uninfected people. The relative risk of renal disease among people with late-stage HIV infection (AIDS) was 3.32 (1.86-5.93) compared to other PLHIV. The relative risk of renal disease among PLHIV who were receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) was 0.54 (0.29-0.99) compared to treatment-naïve PLHIV; the relative risk of renal disease among PLHIV who were treated with tenofovir was 1.56 (0.83-2.93) compared to PLHIV who were treated with non-tenofovir therapy. The risk of renal disease was also found to significantly increase with age.ConclusionPLHIV are at increased risk of renal disease, with greater risk at later stages of infection and at older ages. ART prolongs survival and decreases the risk of renal disease. However, less reduction in renal disease risk occurs for Tenofovir-containing ART than for other regimens.

BackgroundThe overuse of diagnostic imaging for low back pain (LBP) in Australia results in unnecessary cost to the health system and, for patients, avoidable exposure to radiation. The 2013 NPS MedicineWise LBP program aimed to reduce unnecessary diagnostic imaging for non-specific acute LBP in the Australian primary care setting. The LBP program delivered referral pattern feedback, a decision support tool and patient information to 19,997 (60%) of registered Australian general practitioners (GPs). This study describes the findings from evaluation of the effectiveness of the 2013 LBP program at reducing X-ray and computed tomography (CT) scans of the lower back, and the financial costs and benefits of the program to the government funder.MethodsThe effectiveness of the 2013 LBP program was evaluated using population-based time-series analysis of administrative claims data of Medicare Benefits Schedule (MBS) funded X-ray and CT scan services of the lower back. The CT scan referral trend of non-GP health professionals was used as an observational control group in a Bayesian structural time-series model. A retrospective cost–benefit analysis and cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted using program costs from organisational records and reimbursement data from the MBS.ResultsThe 2013 NPS MedicineWise LBP program was associated with a statistically significant 10.85% relative reduction in the volume of CT scans of the lumbosacral region, equating to a cost reduction to the MBS of AUD$11,600,898. The best available estimate of program costs was AUD$141,154. Every dollar of funding spent on the 2013 LBP program saved AUD$82 of funding to the MBS for CT scan reimbursements. Therefore, from the perspective of the Australian Government Department of Health, the 2013 LBP program was cost saving. The program cost AUD$2.82 per CT scan averted in comparison to the scenario of no program. No association between the 2013 NPS MedicineWise LBP program and the volume of X-ray items on the MBS was observed.ConclusionsThe 2013 NPS MedicineWise LBP program reduced CT scan referral by GPs, in line with the program’s messages and clinical guidelines. Reducing this low-value care produced savings to the health system that exceeded the costs of program implementation.

ObjectiveNPS MedicineWise aims to ensure that medicines are prescribed and used in a manner consistent with current evidence-based best practice. A series of nationwide educational and advertising interventions for general practitioners and consumers were implemented in Australia between 2009 and 2015 with the aim of reducing antibiotic prescriptions for upper respiratory tract infections (URTIs). The work described in this paper quantifies the change in antibiotic dispensing following these interventions.MethodsAntibiotic dispensing data between 2004 and 2015 were obtained from a national claims database. A Bayesian structural time series model was used to forecast a series of antibiotic dispensing volumes expected to have occurred if the interventions had not taken place. These were compared with the volumes that were actually observed to estimate the intervention effect.ResultsOn average, 126,536 fewer antibiotics were dispensed each month since the intervention programs began in 2009 (95% Bayesian credible interval = 71,580–181,490). This change represents a 14% total reduction in dispensed scripts after the series of intervention programs began in 2009.ConclusionsContinual educational intervention programs that emphasise the judicious use of antibiotics may effectively reduce inappropriate prescribing of antibiotics for the treatment of URTIs at a national level.

This methodology provides a novel way of estimating population incidence by combining diagnosis dates and CD4 cell counts at diagnosis.