For most human complex diseases and traits, SNPs identified by genome-wide association studies (GWAS) explain only a small fraction of the heritability. Here we report a user-friendly software tool called genome-wide complex trait analysis (GCTA), which was developed based on a method we recently developed to address the "missing heritability" problem. GCTA estimates the variance explained by all the SNPs on a chromosome or on the whole genome for a complex trait rather than testing the association of any particular SNP to the trait. We introduce GCTA's five main functions: data management, estimation of the genetic relationships from SNPs, mixed linear model analysis of variance explained by the SNPs, estimation of the linkage disequilibrium structure, and GWAS simulation. We focus on the function of estimating the variance explained by all the SNPs on the X chromosome and testing the hypotheses of dosage compensation. The GCTA software is a versatile tool to estimate and partition complex trait variation with large GWAS data sets.

Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) discovered by genome-wide association studies (GWASs) account for only a small fraction of the genetic variation of complex traits in human populations. Where is the remaining heritability? We estimated the proportion of variance for human height explained by 294,831 SNPs genotyped on 3,925 unrelated individuals using a linear model analysis, and validated the estimation method by simulations based upon the observed genotype data. We show that 45% of variance can be explained by considering all SNPs simultaneously. Thus, most of the heritability is not missing but has not previously been detected because the individual effects are too small to pass stringent significance tests. We provide evidence that the remaining heritability is due to incomplete linkage disequilibrium (LD) between causal variants and genotyped SNPs, exacerbated by causal variants having lower minor allele frequency (MAF) than the SNPs explored to date.

Both polygenicity (i.e., many small genetic effects) and confounding biases, such as cryptic relatedness and population stratification, can yield an inflated distribution of test statistics in genome-wide association studies (GWAS). However, current methods cannot distinguish between inflation from true polygenic signal and bias. We have developed an approach, LD Score regression, that quantifies the contribution of each by examining the relationship between test statistics and linkage disequilibrium (LD). The LD Score regression intercept can be used to estimate a more powerful and accurate correction factor than genomic control. We find strong evidence that polygenicity accounts for the majority of test statistic inflation in many GWAS of large sample size.

Obesity is globally prevalent and highly heritable, but the underlying genetic factors remain largely elusive. To identify genetic loci for obesity-susceptibility, we examined associations between body mass index (BMI) and ~2.8 million SNPs in up to 123,865 individuals, with targeted follow-up of 42 SNPs in up to 125,931 additional individuals. We confirmed 14 known obesity-susceptibility loci and identified 18 new loci associated with BMI (P<5×10−8), one of which includes a copy number variant near GPRC5B. Some loci (MC4R, POMC, SH2B1, BDNF) map near key hypothalamic regulators of energy balance, and one is near GIPR, an incretin receptor. Furthermore, genes in other newly-associated loci may provide novel insights into human body weight regulation.

Here we conducted a large-scale genetic association analysis of educational attainment in a sample of approximately 1.1 million individuals and identify 1,271 independent genome-wide-significant SNPs. For the SNPs taken together, we found evidence of heterogeneous effects across environments. The SNPs implicate genes involved in brain-development processes and neuron-to-neuron communication. In a separate analysis of the X chromosome, we identify 10 independent genome-wide-significant SNPs and estimate a SNP heritability of around 0.3% in both men and women, consistent with partial dosage compensation. A joint (multi-phenotype) analysis of educational attainment and three related cognitive phenotypes generates polygenic scores that explain 11-13% of the variance in educational attainment and 7-10% of the variance in cognitive performance. This prediction accuracy substantially increases the utility of polygenic scores as tools in research.

Major depressive disorder (MDD) is a common illness accompanied by considerable morbidity, mortality, costs, and heightened risk of suicide. We conducted a genome-wide association (GWA) meta-analysis based in 135,458 cases and 344,901 control, We identified 44 independent and significant loci. The genetic findings were associated with clinical features of major depression, and implicated brain regions exhibiting anatomical differences in cases. Targets of antidepressant medications and genes involved in gene splicing were enriched for smaller association signal. We found important relations of genetic risk for major depression with educational attainment, body mass, and schizophrenia: lower educational attainment and higher body mass were putatively causal whereas major depression and schizophrenia reflected a partly shared biological etiology. All humans carry lesser or greater numbers of genetic risk factors for major depression. These findings help refine and define the basis of major depression and imply a continuous measure of risk underlies the clinical phenotype.

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Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified thousands of genetic variants associated with human complex traits. However, the genes or functional DNA elements through which these variants exert their effects on the traits are often unknown. We propose a method (called SMR) that integrates summary-level data from GWAS with data from expression quantitative trait locus (eQTL) studies to identify genes whose expression levels are associated with a complex trait because of pleiotropy. We apply the method to five human complex traits using GWAS data on up to 339,224 individuals and eQTL data on 5,311 individuals, and we prioritize 126 genes (for example, TRAF1 and ANKRD55 for rheumatoid arthritis and SNX19 and NMRAL1 for schizophrenia), of which 25 genes are new candidates; 77 genes are not the nearest annotated gene to the top associated GWAS SNP. These genes provide important leads to design future functional studies to understand the mechanism whereby DNA variation leads to complex trait variation.