(1) Background: We aimed to analyze rheumatic heart disease (RHD) mortality trends in China’s urban and rural areas and to determine the roles of age, period, and cohort effects. (2) Methods: Based on mortality data extracted from the China Health Statistics Yearbook, we calculated the crude mortality rate of RHD. Age–adjusted rates were computed by the direct method using the 2020 census as the standard population. The annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) were determined by the JoinPoint regression model. The age–period–cohort model was used to estimate the effects of age, period, and cohort. (3) Results: From 2006 to 2020, the general trend in RHD standardized mortality declined. The RHD mortality rate was higher in rural than in urban areas and among females than males. The elderly (over 60 years old) were at high risk for RHD deaths in China. The age effect increased with age, and the cohort effect showed a declining trend as chronology grew, but the period effect was not significant. (4) Conclusions: China has achieved great success in RHD, but RHD mortality may increase with age. Compared with the period effect, age and cohort effects dominated the risk of RHD deaths.
Background: The aim of this study was to analyze rheumatic heart disease (RHD) mortality trends in China’s urban and rural areas and to determine the roles of age, period, and cohort effects. Methods: Based on mortality data extracted from the Chinese Health Statistics Yearbook, we calculated the crude mortality rate of RHD in China. Age-adjusted rates were computed by the direct method using the 2020 census as the standard population. The annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) were determined by the JoinPoint regression model. The age-period-cohort model and the intrinsic estimator (IE) algorithm were used to estimate the effects of age, period, and cohort. Results: From 2006 to 2020, the general trend in RHD standardized mortality declined. The RHD mortality rate was higher in rural than in urban areas and among females than males. JoinPoint regression showed that the elderly (over 60 years old) were at high risk for RHD deaths in China. The age effect increased with age, and the cohort effect showed an overall declining trend as chronology grew, but the period effect was not significant. Conclusions: China has achieved great success in RHD, but RHD mortality may increase with age. We should focus on publicity and education about RHD among the elderly. Compared with the period effect, age and cohort effects dominated the risk of RHD deaths.
Background: China has a high mortality from nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). The NPC mortality trends in China from 2006 to 2020 were described and analyzed to understand its epidemiological characteristics by region and sexand to explore age, period, and cohort effects.
Methods: A joinpoint regression model was used to fit the standardized NPC mortality and age-specific mortality. The age-period-cohort model was used to investigate age, period, and cohort effects on the NPC mortality risk.
Results: The results showed that the NPC mortality rate in China has been declining steadily. From 2006 to 2020, the standardized NPC mortality rate in most age groups showed a significant downward trend. The annual percentage change was smaller in rural areas than in urban areas. The mortality risks of rural malesand rural females from 2016 to 2020 were 1.139 times and 1.080 times those from 2011 to 2015, respectively. The risk of NPC death in urban males born in 1984-1988 and in rural males born in 1979-1983 both showed an increasing trend.
Conclusions: The strategies for preventing and treating NPC in China were effective from 2006 to 2020, but the findings indicate that people in rural areas need more targeted interventions to reduce NPC deaths.
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