China has been one of the most aggressive countries in electric vehicle (EV) promotion. However, private EV sales fail to achieve the government’s target. In particular, cutting purchase subsidies poses great uncertainty in relation to EV diffusion. In this research, a system dynamics model aims to investigate the influence of government policies, infrastructure development plans, the duration of policies, and the phase out strategy of policies. Parameters relating to consumers’ preferences are drawn from a questionnaire survey, which is conducted in Shenzhen, the pioneer city in China’s EV promotion. The result of a scenario analysis shows that purchase subsidies, purchase restrictions and driving restrictions are the most effective policies for EV promotion. Driving restrictions are more effective but less easy to enforce than purchase restrictions. The number and location of charging piles are much more important than large charging stations. Moreover, EV diffusion can be self-sufficient after current policies have been maintained for 11 years. We find that the gradual removal of subsidies will cause a four-year delay in EV sales entering rapid growth in Shenzhen. However, cutting subsidies in cities without purchase restrictions will cause the failure of EV promotion.

Abstract:China promoted the large-scale adoption of Electric Vehicles (EVs) in its 13th five-year plan; however, this target faces many obstacles. This paper analyzes the main barriers to widespread adoption of EVs through a survey in Shenzhen, which has the biggest EVs market share out of China's major cities. Based on previous research, this paper conducted a new study using 406 approved questionnaires among 500 participants. Our study proposed five hypotheses to examine the main barriers to widespread adoption of EVs. The analysis was conducted using statistical method that included two-way frequency tables, chi-square test, and factor analysis. The results indicated that perception of advantages of EVs and access to recharging EVs remained the main barriers in large-scale penetration. Furthermore, our study revealed that a drop in financial incentives would not cause a significant decline in the future adoption of EVs. The study provides suggestions to car manufacturers and government policy advisors based on our analysis and discussion.

China planned to promote the large-scale adoption of Electric Vehicles (EVs) in the thirteenth five-year plan, however, this target faces many obstacles. This paper was trying to analyze the main barriers to widespread adoption of EVs through a survey in Shenzhen, which has the biggest EVs market share in China major cities. Based on previous scholarly findings, this paper conducted a new study which collected 406 approved questionnaires among 500 participants. The study proposed five hypotheses to examine the main barriers to widespread adoption of EVs. The analysis conducted by statistical methods: two-way frequency tables, chi-square test, and factor analysis. The results noted that perception of EVs advantages and recharging access remained the main barriers to EVs large-scale penetration. Besides, financial incentives drop would not cause a significant decline of EVs adoption in future. The study proposed suggestions to carmaker and government policy administrator on the analysis and discussion.