SUMMARY Background Avian influenza A(H7N9) virus has caused human infections in China since 2013, and a large epidemic in 2016–17 has prompted concerns of whether the epidemiology has changed to suggest an increasing pandemic threat. Our study aimed to describe the epidemiological characteristics, clinical severity, and time-to-event distributions of A(H7N9) case-patients in the 2016–17 epidemic wave compared with previous waves. Methods We obtained information about all laboratory-confirmed human cases of A(H7N9) virus infection reported in mainland China as of 23 February 2017. We described the epidemiological characteristics across epidemic waves, and estimated the risk for death, mechanical ventilation, and admission to the intensive care unit for patients who required hospitalization for medical reasons. We estimated the incubation periods, and time delays from illness onset to hospital admission, illness onset to initiation of antiviral treatment, and hospital admission to death or discharge. Findings The 2016–17 A(H7N9) epidemic wave began earlier, spread to more counties in affected provinces and had more confirmed cases than previous epidemic waves. There was an increase in the proportion of cases in middle-aged adults and in semi-urban and rural residents. The clinical severity of hospitalized cases in 2016–17 was comparable to the previous epidemic waves. Interpretation Age distribution and case sources changed gradually across epidemic waves, while clinical severity has not changed substantially. Continued vigilance and sustained intensive control efforts are needed to minimize the risk of human infection with A(H7N9) virus. Funding The National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars (grant no. 81525023).

Since the first outbreak of avian influenza A(H7N9) virus in humans was identified in 2013, there have been five seasonal epidemics observed in China. An earlier start and a steep increase in the number of humans infected with H7N9 virus was observed between September and December 2016, raising great public concern in domestic and international societies. The epidemiological characteristics of the recently reported confirmed H7N9 cases were analysed. The results suggested that although more cases were reported recently, most cases in the fifth epidemic were still highly sporadically distributed without any epidemiology links; the main characteristics remained unchanged and the genetic characteristics of virus strains that were isolated in this epidemic remained similar to earlier epidemics. Interventions included live poultry market closures in several cities that reported more H7N9 cases recently.

BackgroundStudies have revealed that visiting poultry markets and direct contact with sick or dead poultry are significant risk factors for H5N1 infection, the practices of which could possibly be influenced by people's knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAPs) associated with avian influenza (AI). To determine the KAPs associated with AI among the Chinese general population, a cross-sectional survey was conducted in China.MethodsWe used standardized, structured questionnaires distributed in both an urban area (Shenzhen, Guangdong Province; n = 1,826) and a rural area (Xiuning, Anhui Province; n = 2,572) using the probability proportional to size (PPS) sampling technique.ResultsApproximately three-quarters of participants in both groups requested more information about AI. The preferred source of information for both groups was television. Almost three-quarters of all participants were aware of AI as an infectious disease; the urban group was more aware that it could be transmitted through poultry, that it could be prevented, and was more familiar with the relationship between AI and human infection. The villagers in Xiuning were more concerned than Shenzhen residents about human AI viral infection. Regarding preventative measures, a higher percentage of the urban group used soap for hand washing whereas the rural group preferred water only. Almost half of the participants in both groups had continued to eat poultry after being informed about the disease.ConclusionsOur study shows a high degree of awareness of human AI in both urban and rural populations, and could provide scientific support to assist the Chinese government in developing strategies and health-education campaigns to prevent AI infection among the general population.

Few studies have focused on the transmission efficiency of asymptomatic carriers of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. Our follow-up study was performed on 147 asymptomatic carriers in Anhui Province. Of these, 50.0% were male, 50.3% were older than 40 years, 43.8% were farmers, and 68.7% were from the north of Anhui Province. 16 of the 147 asymptomatic carriers developed symptoms in the following 14 days of isolated observation, and were subsequently diagnosed as confirmed cases. The possible latent infection period was found to range from 1-5 days before onset, with a median time of 2 days. The second attack rate for the 16 confirmed cases who had transferred from being asymptomatic carriers was 9.7% (23/236 close contacts), while for the 131 asymptomatic carriers the rate was 2.6% (24/914 close contacts), showing a significant difference in second attack rate between the two groups (p＜0.001). Our study indicated that COVID-19 cases are contagious during the incubation period, and that close contact screening should be extended to include the incubation period. Our results also showed that the transmission efficiency for asymptomatic carriers was lower than that for confirmed case.

To detect changes in human-to-human transmission of influenza A(H7N9) virus, we analyzed characteristics of 40 clusters of case-patients during 5 epidemics in China in 2013–2017. Similarities in number and size of clusters and proportion of clusters with probable human-to-human transmission across all epidemics suggest no change in human-to-human transmission risk.

The spread of infectious disease epidemics is mediated by human travel. Yet human mobility patterns vary substantially between countries and regions. Quantifying the frequency of travel and length of journeys in well-defined population is therefore critical for predicting the likely speed and pattern of spread of emerging infectious diseases, such as a new influenza pandemic. Here we present the results of a large population survey undertaken in 2007 in two areas of China: Shenzhen city in Guangdong province, and Huangshan city in Anhui province. In each area, 10,000 randomly selected individuals were interviewed, and data on regular and occasional journeys collected. Travel behaviour was examined as a function of age, sex, economic status and home location. Women and children were generally found to travel shorter distances than men. Travel patterns in the economically developed Shenzhen region are shown to resemble those in developed and economically advanced middle income countries with a significant fraction of the population commuting over distances in excess of 50 km. Conversely, in the less developed rural region of Anhui, travel was much more local, with very few journeys over 30 km. Travel patterns in both populations were well-fitted by a gravity model with a lognormal kernel function. The results provide the first quantitative information on human travel patterns in modern China, and suggest that a pandemic emerging in a less developed area of rural China might spread geographically sufficiently slowly for containment to be feasible, while spatial spread in the more economically developed areas might be expected to be much more rapid, making containment more difficult.

<abstract> <p>Since the first case of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Wuhan Hubei, China, was reported in December 2019, COVID-19 has spread rapidly across the country and overseas. The first case in Anhui, a province of China, was reported on January 10, 2020. In the field of infectious diseases, modeling, evaluating and predicting the rate of disease transmission is very important for epidemic prevention and control. Different intervention measures have been implemented starting from different time nodes in the country and Anhui, the epidemic may be divided into three stages for January 10 to February 11, 2020, namely. We adopted interrupted time series method and develop an SEI/QR model to analyse the data. Our results displayed that the lockdown of Wuhan implemented on January 23, 2020 reduced the contact rate of epidemic transmission in Anhui province by 48.37%, and centralized quarantine management policy for close contacts in Anhui reduced the contact rate by an additional 36.97%. At the same time, the estimated basic reproduction number gradually decreased from the initial 2.9764 to 0.8667 and then to 0.5725. We conclude that the Wuhan lockdown and the centralized quarantine management policy in Anhui played a crucial role in the timely and effective mitigation of the epidemic in Anhui. One merit of this work is the adoption of morbidity data which may reflect the epidemic more accurately and promptly. Our estimated parameters are largely in line with the World Health Organization estimates and previous studies.</p> </abstract>

In May 2011, the Center for Disease Control and Prevention of a Chinese county found a rapid increase in the number of hepatitis A case notification; these were traced to an outbreak in an elementary school. Twenty-eight cases aged between 7 and 13 years with onset between 7 May and 8 June were serologically confirmed. Network method was conducted to reconstruct an outbreak network and to quantify the relative importance of those involved in the outbreak. A case-control study was used to study the association between the outbreak and putative risk factors. The network analysis suggested this was a disseminated outbreak originating from a 4-year-old boy with propagated spread. Evidence from the case-control study supported consumption of well water as a potential risk factor; however, this was unable to be established through field investigation. Outbreak networks can be used to identify the possible source of infectious disease outbreak, especially when the environmental investigation information is negative or not available.